Suga's "desperate" week: desperate bet, forced to abandon the election

The Paper's reporter Chen Qinhan

"Prime Minister, please answer one last question." "Please elaborate." Reporters held aloft their voices and squeezed forward, while Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who had just announced that he would not seek re-election, looked unfazed, bowed slowly with his hands on the seams of his pants, and strode away without turning his head, without answering any questions.

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga People's Vision

On the afternoon of September 3, the Asahi Shimbun and Yomiuri Shimbun distributed "Outside the Trumpet" newspapers on the streets of Tokyo, with the headline board printed in large bold letters "Prime Minister Kan will leave office." Some pedestrians took the newspaper, glanced at it, folded it up and continued to hurry, and the japanese political coldness did not change much.

At this time, Nagatacho was in a commotion, and the politicians who learned that the prime minister had abandoned the election were bluntly "shocked" when they faced the camera, but they were sorry or secretly happy in their hearts, and it was not known.

Suga's turn away left many mysteries. The LDP's presidential election is looming, and last week he unexpectedly launched a plan to adjust the party's personnel and prepare for a backwater battle. When the political circles waited for the wind to come, he was caught off guard by surprise and cut off the prime minister's trip.

From turning the tide to giving up re-election, what did Suga experience this week?

Last night in August

On the last Sunday of August (August 29), the Japanese media's "Prime Minister's News" column rarely published only one message: spent in the House of Representatives dormitory in Akasaka, Tokyo. This is Suga's first full-day break in five months, after he had worked for 153 consecutive days, surpassing the record set by his predecessor Shinzo Abe.

After this day's closed-door repair, he will usher in the key battle of his political career.

The Liberal Democratic Party's secretary-general, Toshihiro Nichiren, and the acting secretary-general, Hayashi Ganxiong, were close confidants of Suga's inner circle, and on Monday after the day of rest, they received a notice and hurried to the prime minister's residence. On August 30, Suga met with the second order for about half an hour to discuss a "battle plan" for the LDP's presidential election, Kyodo News Agency reported.

The second-order Toshihiro served as the secretary general for more than 5 years, and the party was full of dissatisfaction, and this time the president candidate Kishida Fumio made a big fuss on this topic, so he gained some support. In the face of the difficult situation, Suga had to consider "abandoning the car to protect the marshal", but in the face of the second-order "BoLe", he wanted to stop talking.

The second-order Toshihiro, who has been in the political arena for nearly half a century, has insight into Suga's thoughts, "Don't worry, carry out personnel work according to your ideas." The second order acquiesced in the conversation to resign as the secretary general, and thought of a "dangerous chess" to support his cronies to come to power, and it was not impossible to continue his influence in the party.

The Suga government's ineffective epidemic prevention has caused the people's hearts to turn their backs, the LDP is full of uneasiness about the House of Representatives election, and for Suga Yoshihide, losing the election seems to be a foregone conclusion, and only "strange strategies" can win at this time.

According to the Weekly Asahi, Suga plans to urgently carry out personnel adjustments to the LDP after consultation with the second order, using young politicians and giving the LDP a new look. As a result, consideration could be given to the early dissolution of the House of Representatives in mid-September, and after the LDP's victory, it would be logical that the party president would be re-elected without a vote.

Motivated, Suga went with his secretary to the Tokyu Capitol Hotel in Tokyo on the evening of August 30 to contact some think tanks who were inconvenient to meet at the official residence and the Parliamentarians' Guild Hall to discuss election countermeasures.

Everything went according to plan, until a piece of news caused Suga to be completely chaotic.

"The prime minister intends to dissolve the House of Representatives in mid-September and postpone the LDP's presidential election." The Daily News pushed an exclusive message at 10 p.m. on August 31. LDP sources pointed out that in the eyes of the majority of the people, Suga Yoshihide will stop at nothing to protect himself and dissolve the House of Representatives early, which will expose the interests of the LDP to great risks, and there may even be a possibility of going down.

The news violently stirred up Japanese politics. According to the Yomiuri Shimbun, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe specially called Yoshihide Suga late at night on August 31, advising him not to dissolve the House of Representatives in advance, "the opposition within the party is difficult to suppress." In addition, he also hinted that the former big housekeeper, there were "upside down" people feeding the media, disrupting the pace of the campaign in the form of "conspiracy reports".

Hearing this, Suga's anger reached its peak, repeating "too much." Japanese political journalist Shiro Tasaki, who has close ties to the prime minister's residence, revealed on a September 4 program that the prime minister, in anger, was more determined to implement the LDP's personnel adjustments.

The news of the dissolution of the House of Representatives in September released by the "Daily News" was like a fire in the political circles, and the speculation about the postponement of the LDP presidential election caused by it was also spreading, and on the morning of September 1, this topic rushed to the "hot search" of The Japanese push.

"Your Excellency is crazy, now is the time to go crazy?" In a TV asahi program, LDP members used lines from Japanese historical dramas to satirize the prime minister for making up his own mind.

On September 1, Suga denied suspicion to the media, "The prevention and control of the new crown epidemic is the highest priority, and the current situation does not allow the dissolution of the House of Representatives." He also made it clear that he would not postpone the LDP's presidential election. The road to early dissolution of the House of Representatives has been extinguished, and the distrust of Suga within the party has further intensified.

Cast the die

"Personnel is the message of the regime." These are the words that Suga often hangs on his lips during his tenure as chief cabinet secretary, and he is known in political circles for his "old and spicy" personnel control, and government bureaucrats obey him. At present, the re-election crisis, the personnel adjustment of the LDP's top level is regarded by Suga Yoshihide as a plan to revive the dead.

However, less than a month before the LDP's presidential election, a hasty personnel reshuffle is rare. Gan Liming, the tax transfer chairman who is known as the LDP's "3A" along with Abe and Aso, wrote on his personal website homepage: "The personnel transfer before the president election is unprecedented and difficult for everyone to understand. ”

At a critical juncture, Suga insisted on making desperate bets in the areas he was good at.

From August 30 to September 2, Suga held four consecutive days of one-on-one talks with Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi. On September 3, after learning that Suga had given up his re-election, Koizumi choked up in front of the media camera, "Don't just criticize, I hope that the people can recognize Prime Minister Suga's work performance, if it is not him, many things are difficult to achieve." Speaking of which, a teardrop came out of Xiao Quan's right eye.

Koizumi's tears imply the complex emotions of the two people's frequent exchanges. Both Suga and Shinjiro Koizumi belonged to the Kanagawa prefectural constituency, and during the LDP's brief period of exile, the two worked side by side in political activities to regain power. In addition, Suga had been cared for by Jinjiro's father, Junichiro Koizumi, in the past, so he also treated Jinjiro with a feeling of gratitude.

The highlight of the readjustment of the LDP's senior personnel is the selection of the secretary general. According to the Asahi Shimbun, Suga initially looked up to Shinjiro Koizumi and chose him as the successor of the second-order Toshihiro, talking bitterly for four consecutive days in an attempt to persuade Koizumi to accept the appointment. But Koizumi knows that even if he is elected, it will be difficult to ensure that the LDP will be foolproof in the House of Representatives elections, and rather than resign due to electoral defeat, it is better to simply refuse to take office.

"I feel resentful that the Prime Minister is considered an impersonal person, when in fact he is a warm and open-minded man, on the contrary." Koizumi realized that he was actually one of the reasons for Suga's dismal end, "[The Prime Minister] treated me, who was similar to his son's age, gave me room to retreat, always gave me a lot of time, and all I wanted to say was thanks." ”

However, Shinjiro Koizumi, who was full of affection for Suga, not only did not accept the appointment, but also advised Suga to give up re-election. Koizumi said in an interview with the media on the 3rd that in the current environment, the current prime minister's participation in the election cannot be properly evaluated, and if he loses the election, it will not be decent. "So I gave the Prime Minister an opinion that included all the options."

To Suga's chill, not only Koizumi, but he almost hit a wall in his personnel plan. According to Kyodo News Agency, Suga also considered appointing Kono Taro, Shigeru Ishiba, and others to important positions within the party. In the face of a wave of "anti-Suga" within the party, Aso Taro, the president of the Aso faction, and others demanded that Kono respect himself and not accept the post of secretary general. Abe has also been cautious about using his own Hosoda faction of legislators as top brass.

"Kono's future can't sink with you." On the evening of September 2, Taro Aso said to Suga.

The Suga regime has been based on maintaining a balance of the "triangular pattern" of the second order, Abe, and Aso, and Abe and Aso have gradually distanced themselves from them. The personnel adjustment plan has no eyebrows, and Suga's sense of isolation is getting stronger.

"The prime minister has failed in areas where he is good at it." Such voices have heard from Japanese politicians. Political news commentator Soichiro Tahara wrote that Suga had neither faction nor cronies to help, and lacked the ability to explain, persuade and take responsibility.

"I was very tired"

On September 3, as usual, Suga Yoshihide took a walk at the prime minister's official residence in the morning, and no one around him noticed anything unusual.

"I'm so tired," Suga confessed to Taro Aso, who visited the official residence that day. In the past month, he has resisted great pressure to host the Olympic Games but failed to boost his support, and the yokohama mayoral candidate he supported has suffered a crushing defeat in the election.

Near noon on the 3rd, Suga met with the second-order Junbo on the second floor of the LDP headquarters to show his predecessor, who had always supported him, the idea of abandoning re-election. According to Japan's AERA magazine, Niji Toshihiro was shocked because he had not noticed anything unusual when they met the day before, when he tried to keep it, but Suga did not say a word, indicating that he had made up his mind.

More than ten minutes later, Suga attended an extraordinary meeting of the Liberal Democratic Party, quietly closed his eyes for a moment, and then said to a group of party cadres: "I have been doing my best to prevent the epidemic." It takes a lot of energy to participate in the president election, and I decided not to participate in the president election and wanted to do a good job in epidemic prevention. ”

Suga returned to his residence after only 6 minutes at an extraordinary meeting, at which he announced his adjournment in a similar tone, and the party's personnel adjustment would be postponed. The press conference lasted only 2 minutes and ended in a lightning bolt.

"This is the worst resignation drama in the history of the Liberal Democratic Party." A relevant person from the Liberal Democratic Party told Fuji News That [the prime minister] rudely attributed the reason for the abandonment to the new crown and did not give an account to the people.

In fact, Suga didn't completely throw his hands away. An hour before the press conference, he had one-on-one talks with his close associates, General Secretary Takeda Ryota, and Taro Kono. According to the Yomiuri Shimbun, Suga had the intention of entrusting kono with a career in the conversation, and he told the people around him later in the day that he admired Kono's reform boldness and wanted to make him a person who continued the reform line of the Suga regime.

After Suga's press conference, Kono told those around him that he was considering running for office and talked with Aso to seek support. By this time, Abe had shifted his bets on the candidates to Former Japanese Minister of General Affairs Hayae Takashi, and the presidential election was complicated.

After being freed from the quagmire of the election, Suga went to Mita Hospital, The International Medical Welfare University in Minato Ward, Tokyo, on September 4 for a medical examination. Two weeks ago, he also went to the hospital. Kyodo News Agency quoted relevant sources as saying that the prime minister was in good health.

Over the past year, Suga, who is tired of coping with the epidemic, has not broken the prediction of a "transitional prime minister". In September last year, he became prime minister as a non-factionalist, which once made people expect Japan to step out of the "black box" of factional politics. Today, the loneliness of "Uncle Reiwa" may confirm that the Suga regime is only a stopgap measure for the LDP factions to avoid power struggles, and the game of power continues to be staged.

Editor-in-Charge: Zhang Wuwei

Proofreader: Luan Meng