At last week's Forum of China's Chief Economists, smart investors listened to several sessions.
Today, sharing this roundtable dialogue on "Capital Market Development and Asset Allocation", the chief of securities companies, the macro strategy of public offerings and the heads of quantitative private placements exchanged the current market talk about the issue of "whether to stagflate", and also talked about monetary policy, talked about some global allocation opportunities and the views of A-shares.
Some collisions can see different angles, and the sense of communication is stronger. We've picked out some interesting ideas and shared them with you.
In terms of global categories, US debt is to be avoided
Yao Yudong, chief economist of Dentons Fund: From the perspective of asset allocation, first of all, we need to see the action of the Federal Reserve, because half of the global liquidity is provided by the Federal Reserve.
We think the Fed will shrink its balance sheet and slow down interest rate hikes. In terms of global categories, US debt is to be avoided.
U.S. stocks are neutral, in the end whether it should be matched, but also depends on whether the individual stocks are profitable, if it is a particularly profitable stock in the U.S. stocks can also be allocated.
Globally, China's bond-like assets, especially Bond Connect(assets), are worth re-allocating, because our economy is also gradually recovering on the margin, and the interest rate differential between China and the United States is relatively wide, so China's assets are worth allocating through Bond Connect.
China's stock market has grown in style in the past few months, and the future may be both value and growth, and the cycle will continue, with special emphasis on track rotation rather than track selection.
The domestic stock market is not easy, it is more difficult, we are more optimistic about India's stocks, India is still good.
After recovering from the epidemic, in a nutshell, China's debt, emerging markets, especially India's stocks, the US stock market is neutral, the US bond market is short, and China's stock market needs to rotate the track, especially our Chinese stock market has also entered a long-term slow bull state (to be carried out) carefully selected.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="24" > the monetary policy expectation game is difficult</h1>
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="25" > is the normal orbit</h1>
Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities: In the second quarter of this year, bonds had a rush to run.
Because at last year's central economic work conference, it was said that it was necessary to stabilize the macro leverage ratio, so everyone felt that monetary policy was important.
In addition, before June, it was said that the price of industrial products would rise further, so the market expectation at that time was actually going in a very tight direction.
But in fact, monetary policy, especially the liquidity of the money market, is still relatively abundant.
After the comprehensive RRR cut in July, market expectations changed again, and the view of monetary policy changed completely, so it fell quickly.
Looking at the PPI recently, it was said that it bottomed out in June, or bottomed out in August, and it may reach more than 10 in September, and it may be higher later.
Therefore, it seems that the problem of inflation is suddenly placed in front of everyone, and the expectation of reducing the RRR has been destroyed, so the yield will return quickly.
Looking back at this position, inflation, PPI may still be a problem, with high uncertainty.
If you look at the average growth of the two years, the fourth quarter is slightly more stable or even a little more recovered than the third quarter, but from the current month compared with last year, the year-on-year growth rate continues to decline.
Therefore, in terms of the expectation of the game of monetary policy, it is estimated that it is difficult to game now.
To put it simply, in the first half of the year, the monetary policy was too tight, in fact, it was not so tight, but it was not so loose, and now it is back on a normal track.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="119" > "stagflation" is not yet possible</h1>
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="120" > it is easy to use this line of thinking to make investments this year</h1>
Wu Youhui, general manager of the macro strategy department of GF Fund: We are in the asset management institutions, everyone likes to do investment, first of all, to assume a scene of an economic cycle, what kind of logic do I trade in the end.
Now people are generally worried about stagflation, but in fact, I would like to say that if we look at this market from the perspective of stagflation, in fact, from the beginning of this year to now, most of the time you will do wrong and do the opposite.
For example, when the price of industrial goods in China is soaring, what should I do according to past experience? Should go short debt, right?
But in fact, this year's situation is that when the price of industrial goods rises sharply, interest rates fall sharply in the middle.
In fact, including the United States. Recently, the US Treasury interest rate has risen very fast, and now the 5-year inflation expectation has been the highest level since 2005, and many people feel that interest rates are so fast that if stagflation should go short US stocks.
But in fact, from eleven to now, the entire NASDAQ has actually risen a lot.
So a lot of times when we ourselves are doing the investment framework, we must understand the driving factors behind this framework, and we can't use simple stagflation to set the logic.
The second is how to understand the core drivers behind asset prices?
First of all, China does not have typical stagflation, but China is a binary structure in stagflation, that is, my traditional economy is very stagnant, but the new economy is very strong, the demand is very strong.
Inflation is the same, we only have upstream inflation, but if we look at the downstream inflation is actually very weak, not only the real inflation is very weak, inflation expectations are also very weak, if we look at the central bank's urban questionnaire data.
This actually reflects the inflation problems in China and the United States are not the same, China does not have large-scale demand stimulus, especially no resident stimulus, China is a producer country, there is no supply chain problem, the United States has supply chain problems, so Europe and the United States it has supply and demand mismatch brought about inflation, but China does not.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="121" > optimistic about A shares as a whole</h1>
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="122" > here are the best alphas in the world</h1>
Zhu Xiaokang, chairman and chief investment officer of Hangzhou Longqi Technology: An old colleague of mine, he has such a sentence to sum up, he said that from the perspective of the global market, if we look at the past 10 years, the United States may have the best beta in the world, but relatively speaking, it may be the worst alpha;
China, on the contrary, has basically the worst beta in the world, but may be the best alpha relatively good.
Of course, objectively speaking, because our point today, the above-mentioned factory is still more than 3,000 points, and there is no doubt that beta may not be so powerful.
But if we look forward to 5 years and 10 years, I am personally relatively optimistic.
For example, the CSI 500, its price-earnings ratio today is 21 times, and the percentile in its historical valuation is about 8%, 9%, such a historical low, if we combine the overall macro demographic factors, some of the overall background, if we look forward, I am relatively not generally pessimistic about Beta.
From a quantitative point of view, the market structure has undergone a huge change, from a very biased type of market in the early years to a very momentum market environment today.
This has a very big relationship with the vigorous development of the underlying institutionalization process in the past few years, so that this market has shown some strong and strong trends, especially from 16 or 17 years later, to today, I think this institutionalization trend is actually just the beginning and far from over.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="123" > next year's investment focus on these 4 orientations</h1>
Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai Securities: Now the market is divided into short-term and long-term points of view, and the biggest hot spots in the short-term and medium-term are actually two.
One is inflation, interest rate hikes.
There is also the problem of cycle switching, including the switching of the traditional real estate cycle to the green electricity cycle, which is a transformation of China's new economic pull.
What do you look at from the next year's investment?
I think the focus is on which areas are long tracks, high-quality tracks, from the national definition including positioning, in fact, very clear, including the listing of the North Stock Exchange, brics new high-quality development, which are frequently clicked.
In terms of the attributes of the industry, I pay more attention to the 4 orientations.
One is the upgrading of the entire technology industry, and this direction will certainly not be wrong.
The second is the core, strategic bulk raw materials, which have also been written into their strategic planning by the United States. For our country, as inflation leads to the rapid rise in commodity prices, there is actually a part of the importance implied.
The third is some areas related to medical treatment, which are highly related to people's livelihood.
The last one is food security and agricultural security, which may usually be a little weaker, but in the long run, it is very variable.
Including the CPI we mentioned, in fact, we see that the main pig price is at the bottom, there is a bottom effect, but if this factor is abandoned, in the future next year we feel that we must put the issue of food and agricultural security at a more important point.
All works marked "Smart Investor" are copyrighted by Smart Investor. Unauthorized reproduction, excerpt or use in other ways is strictly prohibited, and violators will be investigated. All articles are intended to document and convey information and do not represent that "Smart Investors" endorse or disagree with their views.
