From the super hot of "intercourse" since the second half of last year, to the rapid freezing since June this year, it seems that this time it has come violently and ended quickly, a bit like the bull market trajectory in 2015. In particular, in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, a round of rapid rise caused by school district housing has not yet been fully rolled out, and due to the adjustment of school district policies and the introduction of the "double reduction" policy, the transaction volume has been frozen rapidly, the price has also been adjusted sideways, and the price of top school districts has even dropped significantly. Coupled with the main tone of the state's housing and housing speculation, as well as the frequent introduction of regulatory policies, the real estate industry is about to usher in a cold winter. The real estate enterprises represented by Evergrande have an abnormally tight capital chain, the days are really not good, and various rumors continue. In the past two days, Evergrande's many bonds have been temporarily suspended, and internal financial management has also been rumored to be thunderstorm, it can be said that Evergrande, a real estate tycoon, has some signs that the building will fall, and once the rumors become true, the impact caused by it is difficult to estimate.
How to understand this round of house price increases? I think it is the result of multiple factors. First of all, house prices have not risen for many years. Since the strictest control policy in 2017, housing prices across the country have fallen to varying degrees, and even third- and fourth-tier cities have dropped significantly. Especially with the increase in residents' incomes, new needs and improvement needs have become more and more urgent. Secondly, the contradiction between supply and demand of quality education is prominent. This round of price increases began with school district houses and ended with school district houses. After the liberalization of the two-child policy in 2015, the tide of school-age children with the first child superimposed on the second child is about to go to school, and the shortage of high-quality degrees has intensified the demand for high-quality school district housing, and the imbalance between supply and demand has led to a soaring price. Third, the epidemic has triggered the pursuit of high-quality assets. The epidemic has led to a global recession, global general easing measures have brought about a situation of excess liquidity, and social high-quality assets represented by real estate have been sought after by funds in the post-epidemic era.
How to understand the development of real estate after regulation? A few days ago, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development gave us a clear answer to the answer to the question of housing for all. The simple understanding is that the basis for the whole people to live in a house is to implement the housing and not speculate, prevent the financialization of the house, and return to the demand for ordinary housing. In the future, real estate will no longer be a reservoir of wealth, and the revitalization of stock resources and fixed assets will be the key to real estate to finance and soft landing.
So will the house prices that everyone is worried about fall sharply? I think not, the main reasons are several points: first, China's economy is still in a good growth trend, residents' income is still in a stable growth stage, high-quality economic growth can support the bottom house price; second, the real estate in the asset structure of residents accounts for most of the total, the scale of liabilities is very large and the proportion of liabilities is very high, once the house price falls sharply, it will cause financial risks to erupt; third, no matter when the house is a good asset, this is the global general recognition, especially in the case of slow global economic recovery and no significant alleviation of the global epidemic. High-quality assets are still a good choice for capital preservation and appreciation.
After thinking about this clearly, I think everyone will look at "intercourse" rationally. One is that the era of buying a house and investing lies in making money has passed; second, if it is purely self-occupied just needs, it is necessary to appropriately choose the timing and real estate according to their actual needs and capabilities; the third is to change the traditional concept, follow the rental and sale and move away, may become the future trend, for the working class, there is no need to rush to empty 6 wallets. Are you ready for the future of "intercourse"?