Author: Zonghengjun
The property market seems to have "changed" overnight.
1. According to the data of the People's Court Announcement Network, in the first nine months of 2021, the number of bankruptcies of housing enterprises was nearly 300. According to the data of relevant institutions, including Evergrande, Sunshine City, Taihe, Fantasia, Xinli and other hundreds of billions of housing enterprises have experienced financial difficulties, this year's housing enterprise bond default has reached 39, and before June 30 next year, housing enterprises still have nearly 400 billion yuan of mature debts to repay. So much so that Fan Zhannian helmsman Pan Jun said that if the policy environment does not improve in June next year, 60% of the housing enterprises may go out of business, revealing sadness between words.
2. According to the statistics of the agency, the sales of the top 100 housing enterprises in June, July, August and September have declined continuously year-on-year, and in September of the traditional property market season, the sales decline has even reached nearly 40%, although October has not yet finished, the probability continues to decline.
3. Of course, all this is ultimately reflected in house prices, the statistics department released data show that the monitoring of the country's 70 large and medium-sized cities house price data show that the number of cities where house prices have declined month-on-month increased by 9 to 36 compared with the previous month, achieving more than half, which is a situation that has not been seen in recent years. Moreover, the number of second-hand houses reflecting the "barometer" of the property market has reached 52 cities, accounting for nearly 75%, the weather is not cold, and the property market seems to have entered the winter ahead of schedule.
In the face of such a market situation, policy fine-tuning is on the string.
(i)
According to financial reports, at present, the housing loan quota of qingdao construction bank and industrial and commercial bank is fully liberalized, and other banks are also following up, not only the waiting time of mortgage queues is shortened, but the mortgage interest rate has also shown a loosening trend.
I have to say that in stark contrast to the previous "some banks do not accept new housing loan cases, some banks even suspend second-hand housing loans, and some banks clearly state that they will not have a quota until next year", the bank quota suddenly said that it should be fully liberalized, for developers and buyers who have been waiting for loans, it is undoubtedly a long drought.
In particular, some housing enterprises that need funds to rescue have been saved. It can be seen that the state regulates the property market not to destroy housing enterprises, and the bottom line of maintaining financial security and social stability has always existed invisiblely.
(ii)
In fact, all this is premonitioned.
On September 27, a message was released on the central bank's website, introducing the contents of the third quarter regular meeting of the central bank's monetary committee, which clearly proposed two "safeguards": maintaining the healthy development of the real estate market and safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers. Careful researchers have found that this is the first time real estate has been mentioned at such a conference.
People who pay a little attention to the property market know that there will be countermeasures when the problem comes out, in hot cities, this year's mortgage interest rate has been in a growth trend, and the interest rate of the first home loan in some places is close to or even more than 6%, of course, more importantly, it is not to pay, directly affecting the housing enterprises to return the money, you know, housing enterprises sometimes in order to reduce the cost of funds, the opening is calculated in days, this next half of the year is not paid, only rely on the buyer's 30% down payment how to operate. Among them, Evergrande is undoubtedly a direct fuse, and large-scale shutdown is certainly not conducive to the stable and healthy development of real estate.
Therefore, with the big tone of "two maintenance", the subsequent work is logical. First of all, at the end of September, the central bank stated that it would maintain the smooth release of real estate credit, and then on October 20, the top management spoke out at the "2021 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting", and the reasonable capital demand is being met, and the trend of stable and healthy development of the real estate market will not change.
Looking back now, when Evergrande had a crisis, some people felt that this was not easy to do, to save or not to save? In fact, the answer is clear, so the big stalls, how many market-related entities are involved, how many home buyers and families are involved, and the state has intervened, in fact, it is not Evergrande and other housing enterprises that have been saved, but in order to maintain the stability of the entire industry and social stability.
(iii)
What is the impact of the relaxation of mortgage quota on the property market?
Some people think that "the most difficult time in the property market has passed", and some people think that "the policy bottom has emerged, and the property market is just around the corner", I think the expression is not too accurate, or we do not fully understand the spirit of the current property market regulation.
First of all, now there is indeed some relaxation in credit, but also may be accompanied by a reduction in mortgage interest rates, the cost of buying a house for home buyers has eased, not only Qingdao, other cities will be adjusted one after another, but we should not mistakenly think that other regulations are relaxed, jun is not seen, there are hot cities The property market regulation is still increasing.
Secondly, it is only a correction of the tight credit in the early stage, as Zou Lan, director of the central bank, said, some financial institutions mistakenly believe that they cannot issue new development loans, and will maintain orderly release in the future. But we housing enterprises should not be too happy too much, these money is only to ensure normal operation, those too high leverage, poor management of housing enterprises who can not guarantee, but also combined with the market, if the city you are in the city property market temperature is not reduced, or rising, as an important tool for regulation - credit, will also be inhibited.
Remember a little, the results achieved in regulating and controlling for so long will not be lost because of the "small episodes" in the middle? The main line of maintaining the stable development of the property market will not change.
(iv)
I have to say that the country's experience in regulating the property market is becoming more and more mature, and it is not advisable for people who eat melons to sing short and sing about the property market, and only by understanding the word "stable" can we truly understand the future property market.
Since The first "restriction order" in Yueyang, Hunan Province, has successfully passed customs clearance, more and more places have interviewed developers, demanding the prohibition of malicious price reductions and disrupting market order, and some statistics show that more than ten cities, including Shenyang, Tangshan, Kunming, Jiangyin, Nantong, Zhangjiakou, Anqing, etc., have verbal or written restrictive measures, and the property market in these cities or some areas has a commonality, that is, developers rush to fight price wars, the market decline is obvious, and they are sacrificed for market stability considerations.
Therefore, the understanding of the regulation and control of the property market, we can not only limit ourselves to curbing the overheating of the property market, but also include controlling the decline in house prices, as the Economic Daily said, the big rise is not stable, the big fall is not stable. If it is understood to fluctuate in a small range, Zonghengjun believes that it should be more appropriate.
Of course, this "stable" word, Zonghengjun feels that it should also include two meanings, one is the "property market differentiation", which is well understood, the level of economic development is high, the net inflow of population is large, and the city that has not experienced a big rise in the past two years should still be in a stable and rising state due to the good foundation of the property market, and for those places that rely on the limit order to maintain, at most it is stable, and even due to inertia, it will continue to slip.
The other is "housing is not speculation". No matter in which city, the future of buying a house is to put self-occupation in the first place, some people say, this is not contradictory to the property market differentiation you said earlier, a good city should be able to ah? This is not a contradiction. Because we know that the real estate tax is getting closer and closer, whether it is official or private, everyone is more consistent in the view that the pilot is to pilot first, it must be from those so-called good cities, hot cities, the original house price increase itself is limited, coupled with the annual tax burden, holding too many houses is naturally not a cost-effective thing. As for ordinary cities, it is not to mention that buying a house that is really suitable for one's living, even if it is devalued, has also been enjoyed.
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