The Philippine election kicks off, who's on the track? Who will be Duterte's successor?

Although the presidential elections in May are still some time away, the Philippine election has already begun.

Recently, before the closing of the window for registration for candidacy, various candidates have been "registered". The son of a former president, a former actor, a boxer, the current vice president, a former police chief, and the daughter of the current president, Duterte, who still has suspense, appear on this list of "colorful" candidates for the presidency. Among them, who will succeed Duterte as the new owner of Maracan Palace?

Who's on the track?

The Philippines holds presidential elections every six years. According to the Philippine Constitution and electoral system, the president is appointed for a term of six years and cannot be re-elected. Duterte, who became president in 2016, will step down next year, leaving opportunities for other ambitious people.

According to Hong Kong's South China Morning Post, as of the end of the registration for election on October 8, at least 50 candidates had submitted eligibility materials. Among them, the popular candidates are mainly as follows:

Marcos Jr., son of former President Marcos.

After the Marcos family returned to the Philippines, Marcos Jr. was elected governor, representative and senator of his hometown of Ilocos Dorinta. In 2016, he tried to run for vice president, but ultimately lost.

In this campaign, Marcos, 64, positioned his candidate as "united" — able to unite the country after being devastated by the coronavirus pandemic.

Former film and television star and mayor of Manila, Francisco Domagoso.

If the 46-year-old Domagoso can be elected, he can become the "Zelenskiy" of the Philippines. Because before entering politics, Domagoso was a well-known advertising actor and film and television star.

A native of Manila, Domagoso claims to have grown up in an urban slum where he makes a living by recycling and reselling garbage. After joining politics, Domagoso held a long-term position in manila, and was elected mayor of Manila in 2019.

He ran with Xu Weili, a well-known Chinese cardiologist in the Philippines, and called on the public to support them and jointly "cure" the country.

Philippine "boxer" Pacquiao.

The 42-year-old Pacquiao is popular in the Philippines. He is a crossover master, and both boxing and politics have blossomed: on the one hand, he is the only professional player in the history of international boxing to win eight world championships, and on the other hand, he has been elected to the House of Representatives twice and was elected to the Senate in 2016. This time he was the first candidate to register for the election.

Like Domagoso, Pacquiao started from scratch. He said he was poor when he was young and made ends meet by selling candy and cigarettes.

The current Vice President, Leni Robredo.

Robredo, 56, the mother of 3 girls, is also seen as the most powerful opposition figure in the Philippines. She has often criticized dutiful of Duterte's administration, vowing to clean up Duterte's mess and restore good governance that was destroyed by Duterte.

In addition, the 73-year-old former national police chief Laxon has not given up on the "presidential dream". After losing the 2004 election, he once again attacked the presidency.

Will Sarah run

In addition to the above-mentioned candidates who have already taken the stage, there is another potential candidate who is more prominent, and that is Duterte's eldest daughter, Sarah Duterte-Capio, the current mayor of Davao City.

Sarah, 43, has led the polls and is highly vocal in the Philippines and is seen as the most promising presidential candidate. However, on the last registration day on the 8th, she did not register for the election. On the same day, she insisted that she was running for mayor of Davao City, not president.

However, there is widespread speculation that Sarah is likely to run in the end.

Dai Fan, deputy dean of the School of International Relations at Jinan University and director of the Philippine Studies Center, pointed out that Sarah's candidacy has nothing to do with her own wishes, but with the political fate of her father Duterte and the fate of other political families close to their family. For His part, Duterte, who is currently being charged by the International Criminal Court and closely watched by the opposition, is preparing for political security after leaving office, so his successor must come to his own camp. For other political families, it is also hoped that Sarah will "stand up" and unite allies to win the election again. Because the Philippine political family is "eating together", after winning the election, the rain and dew can be evened.

However, Dai Fan believes that Sarah may not run for president, but may also run for vice president. "If you run for president, you will face Marcos Jr., and the Duterte family and the Marcos family, as traditional allies, will fight each other and then lose both." So it is not excluded that Sarah will run for vice president. Of course, if the two major families negotiate internally, who is the head and who is the vice can also be adjusted. In short, for Duterte, it is necessary to ensure that candidates for his own political power come to power. ”

Zhou Shixin, director of the Peripheral Foreign Affairs Office of the Institute of Foreign Policy at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, believes that there are several signs that can reveal the possibility of Sarah's election. First, Duterte abruptly announced earlier this month that he would retire from politics and no longer run for vice president. The move is likely to be a tactical strategy for the general election. One is to avoid criticism of her candidacy for vice president, and the other is to raise expectations for Sarah's candidacy. Because Sarah had said that only one person between her and her father would run. Second, on the 8th, Philippine Senator Ronald de la Rosa, who is deeply trusted by Duterte, registered to run for president on behalf of the Philippine ruling Democratic People's Power Party. "This is probably a son of Duterte's cloth, just wait for Sarah to replace him." Because the Philippine Election Commission allows political parties to change presidential candidates by Nov. 15. De la Rosa himself said he would prefer to see Sarah run, "that would be better."

As for why Sarah is not running for election now, Zhou Shixin analyzed that there may be three reasons. One is the physical factor. On October 2, Sarah's brother was diagnosed with COVID-19, and Sarah feared that she was also infected. Sure enough, on October 9, the news of Sarah's diagnosis came out. The second is to wait for the opportunity. Duterte's ruling party can use this to observe how the opposition is lining up to wait for the best time to enter the war. The third is the rule "backdoor". Even if she does not register on time, Sarah can run "as a substitute" until November 15. This is also to learn from his father, and It is this trick that Duterte chose to participate in that year, and its advantage is that it can avoid the fierce mutual pinching of candidates before this.

Competition will be fierce

Even if Sarah has not yet joined the battle, the Philippine election is already a race against the grain.

According to a Pulse Asia poll at the end of September, the support ratings were, in order: Sarah, Marcos, Domagoso, Pacquiao, robredo. But because they're biting each other so tightly that there's no clear front-runner, "the competition will be very, very intense," said Richard Heydarian, a professor of history and political science at the Philippine Institute of Technology.

According to CNN, the Philippine presidential election is a decisive victory in one round, and the winner with the most votes wins. The electoral rules are bright, but the stakes are high and the stakes are high.

Analysts believe that at present, the election pattern is quite chaotic, and who will become Duterte's successor is still unknown.

Dai Fan believes that compared with the last general election, this election can be described as "like a cloud of masters", the candidates have their own strengths, the advantages and disadvantages are also obvious, coupled with the uncertainty of Philippine politics, who will stand out and laugh until the end is still difficult to judge.

Taking several candidates as an example, although Marcos Jr. came from a prominent Marcos family, controlled a large vote bank in the northern Philippines, and had a wealth of governance experience and good political achievements, his father's dictatorship made him carry the "negative assets" of the campaign and became the handle of the opposition's attack.

As the mayor of Manila, Thomaso certainly has the basic disk of the Greater Manila region, but he does not have a political family as a backer, and he is inferior to Marcos Jr. in terms of political resources, local roots, and mobilization.

"Boxer" Pacquiao is very popular in the Philippines and has a star effect, but he lacks governing experience and has doubts about his ability to govern. Moreover, Pacquiao has no political family background.

Dai Fan pointed out that in Philippine politics, money, political family, personal political prestige or popularity are important factors in determining whether an election is won or lost. Among them, the political family factor is particularly important. Philippine politics is dominated by political families, not political parties. Political families form alliances in various forms, and with deep local roots, they can mobilize grassroots resources and stimulate grassroots votes.

Where does the electoral wind blow?

There are still more than eight months to go until the general election next May. In which direction will the electoral wind blow during this period?

Analysts believe that some of the following points of view may become a "weather vane":

Whether Sarah will run in a "replacement" way before November 15 is the biggest attraction.

"Once Sarah runs, the electoral landscape becomes clear." Zhou Shixin said that before November 15, there may be people who withdraw or be replaced, the existing pattern will be broken, and new changes will appear. Of course, after contracting the new crown, Sarah's health will become a variable in whether she can run.

Dai Fan said that how Sarah and Marcos are combined, who is the right and who is vice, or whether they will be combined will also be the focus of attention before November 15. In addition, attention can also be paid to whether the opposition camp can be successfully integrated. Robredo was bent on consolidating Pacquiao and Domagoso to form a unified opposition coalition, but was unsuccessful. In the end, she could only run for president as an independent candidate. In the future, it remains to be seen whether the opposition will continue to promote integration, or even join forces to defeat the candidates of the Du and Ma families, so as to concentrate the votes and focus on supporting the candidates with greater hopes.

As the election campaign begins, next year's Philippine election is receiving more and more attention. Zhou Shixin believes that the election has received great attention from two reasons, one is that the Philippines is worried about economic development. Under the new crown epidemic, the Philippine economy has been greatly affected, and whether the new leader can boost the economy in the future is a matter of concern to the people. Second, the outside world is concerned about the trend of national policies in the Philippines. The new Philippine leader's policy toward the United States and China will affect the direction of the regional situation, especially in the context of the United States vigorously promoting the Indo-Pacific strategy and co-opting Southeast Asian countries.

Still, CNN said that no matter who eventually takes over, or whether Duterte withdraws from politics as he says, his shadow will remain cast on the country.

(Edit email: [email protected])

Column Editor-in-Chief: Yang Liqun Text Editor: Yang Liqun Title Image Source: Figure Worm Image Editor: Su Wei

Source: Author: Liao Qin