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Everyone knows that China's house prices are significantly higher, at least in the current oversupply of the property market, there is a huge room for house prices to fall, which is why most people think that house prices will fall in the future. However, some experts believe that although the demand for urban housing is limited, because Chinese cities and towns are still continuing, there will probably be nearly 600 million farmers living in the city in the future, which will become the biggest support for the property market, so there is still huge room for house prices to rise in the future. Yi Xianrong, an economics professor, gave a different view on this, Yi Xianrong believes that it is unrealistic to pin the hope of (rising house prices) on 600 million farmers, because farmers have low incomes, and it is not easy to settle in the city and buy a house. That is to say, Yi Xianrong believes that farmers cannot afford to support the rise in house prices!
There are many factors that affect the trend of house prices, such as investors, land prices, monetary policy, etc. will have a huge impact on the trend of house prices, but in the context of the current property market regulation, there is actually only one factor that can affect the trend of house prices, that is, the relationship between supply and demand! From this point of view, China's house prices are likely to fall, because according to the central bank's statistics, the home ownership rate of Urban Households in China has reached more than 96%. According to the existing urban population, that is to say, only more than 11 million urban families need housing, basically the annual sales volume of the property market can meet these housing demand. Not to mention that there is still a large number of second-hand housing inventory in China, in this context of oversupply, the probability of house prices falling in the future market is very high, the only fortunate thing is that the state will not allow house prices to fall sharply, otherwise it will affect the stability of the economy.
In the case of insufficient demand for urban housing, many experts have set their sights on the countryside, because although China's urbanization rate has reached 60%, there is still a big gap from the standard of 80% in developed countries, so there will be a large number of rural people entering the city in the future. The data given by experts is that the 600 million people currently living in rural areas will gradually enter the city, and 140 million migrant workers will gradually become citizens, which will become an important support for pulling. If this is the case, then there will indeed be a huge upward support for China's housing prices, but the problem is that experts ignore the consumption capacity of farmers, after all, according to the current market prices, let alone farmers, even urban natives may not be able to afford it. For example, in first-tier cities, a house is five or six million, and young people in the city need to use the "six wallets" of their families to buy a house, and they can afford to take a loan for decades, but can farmers without the help of their parents afford it? Therefore, Yi Xianrong is still right, the low income of peasants cannot support the rise in house prices.
In fact, in the author's opinion, the biggest problem restricting the demand for housing in China's property market is actually not population, but income. Because no matter at any time, the city will continue to attract foreign population, but the income of these immigrants is not enough to support them to buy a house, so it will lead to the phenomenon that there is a population in the city and the demand for home buyers is still insufficient. This is also the reason why cities will now give huge concessions in terms of buying houses when introducing the new talent policy, because this can reduce the difficulty of buying houses for foreign populations. So if you want house prices to rise, you still have to find ways to increase the income of residents.