It was reported that on April 27, Shanghai, Foshan, Changsha and other cities held land transfer activities. According to the final transfer result, the land premium rate reached a maximum of 36.4% and a minimum of only 3%. Or some cities residential land transaction premium rate remains high, other cities continue to deal at the reserve price, and even the phenomenon of streaming auctions.
According to data from the China Index Institute, from April 20 to 26, the total amount of land pushed in the 40 large and medium-sized cities monitored across the country decreased by 36% month-on-month, and seven cities were landless; at the same time, the supply of land in Cities such as Qingdao and Nanjing was relatively large.
In terms of transactions, the overall transfer fee of 40 cities increased by 30%, of which the residential land transfer fee increased by 35% month-on-month, and the land transaction volume of Xi'an, Qingdao and other cities was more obvious. The economically developed urban land market on the southeast coast is actively traded, but for most cities in the central and western regions, the land market transaction scale is not large and the price is low.
It can be seen that even if the new crown virus outbreak occurs, and this new crown virus epidemic is still spreading and worsening around the world, the first priority of many city governments in China to resume work and production is how to restore the real estate market to a new level before, so that the real estate market has become the main pillar of economic growth.
Therefore, China's new crown virus epidemic has just eased, and local governments want to introduce deregulation and control policies, that is, nearly 100 cities must cancel the previous administrative purchase restriction policies in the real estate market (I pointed out a few years ago that why the government does not use economic leverage for housing prices, but uses various administrative real estate regulation and control policies to the extreme, because these administrative control policies can be cancelled at any time).
Although the administrative real estate regulation and control policies cancelled by these cities are "day trips" under the pressure of the central government's "only live and not speculate" market positioning, local governments will certainly not give up promoting the development of the local real estate market.
Because of the easing of the central monetary policy, the large number of various government bonds and corporate bonds, the flood of liquidity in the financial market, domestic enterprises and households can easily and cheaply obtain bank credit funds, and many funds will certainly flow to the real estate market. Regulators, no matter how regulated and restricted, will never be more capable of allowing these funds to flow into the real estate market than businesses and individuals.
This is also the key for China's local governments to push the real estate market to ensure GDP growth at a time when the global COVID-19 pandemic is still worsening.
For example, in the first quarter, bank loans nationwide reached more than 7 trillion yuan, more than the total amount of credit in the first three quarters of 2009.
So when enterprises obtain so much credit funds from banks, will these funds obtained by enterprises be used to increase new investment in the current situation of shrinking orders, serious decline in exports, and reduced household consumption? Estimates are not necessarily. Because in the current environment, if the investment product has no market and no market, then it may be lost.
In 2009, many SMEs benefited from preferential access to the real estate market. At that time, when I went to Guangzhou for class, an entrepreneur told me that the profit of his use of bank credit funds to buy one or two houses was more than the income from his investment in the main business for a year.
Many domestic listed companies raised funds from the stock market are used to buy a large number of houses, and bank credit funds are easily flowed into the real estate market. Local governments are well aware of this situation. This is why local governments are launching the local real estate market again.
However, as far as the current situation is concerned, the housing ownership rate of urban residents has reached more than 96%; for third- and fourth-tier cities, the housing ownership rate of urban residents is definitely higher than this proportion. For the demand for the real estate market in the vast majority of cities below the third and fourth tiers, there was a serious surplus before the outbreak of the new crown virus outbreak.
In the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, a global recession is sure to exacerbate the glut in the real estate market in these cities. But the huge profits in the real estate market will not make local governments stop pushing out a large amount of land (the supply of land in most other cities is unlimited, how much to have), and real estate developers are also willing to use the leverage of the financial market to increase real estate investment.
Recently, there is a report that there is a third-tier city in Shanxi, because the house price in the past two years has risen by more than 4,000 yuan by more than 8,000 yuan, the price has doubled, so real estate development and housing investors have poured into this market, investors hope to buy after letting others take over, for great profit, but in fact, investors buy some five-certificate incomplete real estate speculative projects, two years later there are still only planning drawings, do not see real estate developers start.
That is to say, as long as investors who buy a home expect a huge profit, any risk will be left behind and flood into the market. It is precisely because of these madnesses that local governments will use it to launch more land, regardless of whether the housing market is oversupplied.
I went to many third- and fourth-tier cities in China last year, and their real estate markets are booming, and I estimate that this is also a good time for local governments to really encounter the development of the real estate market. Many cities not only expand rapidly to the surrounding areas, but also plan to have a new city that is several times or even ten times larger than the old city. These cities are as big as they want, and as much land as they want. However, when the epidemic broke out, local governments were unwilling to interrupt the timing of real estate development in the city.
However, from the perspective of actual housing needs, the needs of urban residents are very limited, unless a large number of peasants are allowed to enter the urban population to buy. However, under the current high housing prices, in this employment situation, it is hoped that a large number of farmers will go to the city to buy housing.
The development of many domestic third- and fourth-tier real estate markets has reached the end of phased development. The development of the real estate market is like this, and the land market will become more and more differentiated. This fragmentation of the land market will become the norm in the future. (The author authorized Sohu Think Tank to publish)