Economic data for the third quarter showed positive changes

On the 18th, in the intelligent workshop of an automobile manufacturer located in Jiangdu High-tech Industrial Development Zone, Jiangsu Province, welding sparks were flying, and industrial robots were carrying out welding operations. (Visual China)

Ding Yayan, special correspondent of this newspaper in Germany, Aoki, special correspondent of this newspaper, and Liu Yupeng, special correspondent of this newspaper

The National Bureau of Statistics released a series of high-profile third-quarter economic data on the 18th, among which the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first three quarters of this year increased by 4.8% year-on-year. Foreign media generally said in relevant reports that the data was higher than expected. Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a press conference of the State Council Information Office on the same day that "the growth rate of 4.8% in the first three quarters was hard-won", and "on the whole, in the first three quarters, the national economy operated steadily and steadily. Also on the 18th, the People's Bank of China launched two financing plans.

According to foreign media, the measures of the People's Bank of China have boosted the market, pushing the Chinese stock market to close higher, while seemingly strengthening hopes that Beijing will do everything to ensure that the growth target of around 5% in 2024 is achieved. Since September, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank, the State Administration of Financial Regulation, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other departments have intensively issued incremental policies to send positive signals to the market. Jones Lang LaSalle's chief economist for Greater China, Ming Pang, said that "the stimulus package announced at the end of September will take time and patience to boost growth in the coming quarters". Economist Rajiv · Biswass United States told Business Insider that he expects Beijing to continue to do more to support economic growth so that China's economy can enter 2025 on a better footing.

The trade-in policy drove retail sales to record highs

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, preliminary calculations show that the GDP in the first three quarters was 949746 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% at constant prices. By industry, the added value of the primary industry was 5,773.3 billion yuan, up by 3.4 percent year-on-year; the added value of the secondary industry was 361362 billion yuan, up by 5.4 percent; The added value of the tertiary industry was 530651 billion yuan, up by 4.7 percent. Quarterly, GDP grew by 5.3 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, 4.7 percent in the second quarter, and 4.6 percent in the third quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP grew by 0.9% in the third quarter.

Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at the press conference: "Judging from the economic operation in the first three quarters and the implementation effect of the incremental policy, we believe that the favorable conditions for promoting economic stabilization and recovery are increasing, and the confidence in achieving the expected target of about 5% is increasing." ”

According to Reuters, China's GDP grew by 4.6% in the third quarter, slightly higher than the Reuters forecast of 4.5%. Netherlands Anzhi Bank (ING) article analysis on the 18th said that China's GDP growth in the third quarter performed better than the market consensus expectation, partly because the rebound in September data was stronger than expected. With the release of the third-quarter data, China is one step closer to achieving its full-year growth target of around 5%.

He Zili, a professor at the School of Economics of Nankai University, said in an interview with the Global Times on the 18th that it was not easy for China to achieve a growth rate of 4.8% in the first three quarters under the very complex external environment. This achievement is due to the strong resilience and solid foundation of China's economy, as well as the active and precise regulation and control of a series of stock and incremental macroeconomic policies of the central government.

The United States Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC) said that other data released on the 18th, such as industrial production and retail sales, also exceeded expectations, which is a promising sign for the world's second-largest economy.

Reuters said China's industrial production above designated size rose 5.4% year-on-year in September, up from 4.5% in August. Previously, Reuters expected an increase of 4.5%. In addition, total retail sales of consumer goods rose 3.2% year-on-year in September, up from 2.1% in August and higher than analysts' previous expectations of 2.5%. In the first three quarters, the country's fixed asset investment increased by 3.4% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3.3%. According to an article by Netherlands' Anzhi Bank, China's trade-in policy drove retail sales to a four-month high. At present, the relevant policies are mainly focused on the field of home appliances and automobiles, and the scope is expected to be further expanded in the next few months.

United States Moody's Analytics economist Harry · Murphy ·Crews told the United Kingdom BBC that growth in retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment accelerated throughout September and "together with the planned stimulus, it really puts this year's growth targets within reach". He told Kazakhstan media that China needs more efforts from the government to solve structural problems in the economy.

The central bank's two monetary policy tools have been implemented

The People's Bank of China announced on the 18th that it will officially launch the securities, funds and insurance company swap facility (SFISF) operation from now on to support the stable development of the capital market. On the same day, the People's Bank of China issued an announcement to officially launch a refinancing for stock repurchase and increase holdings, encouraging and guiding financial institutions to provide loans to eligible listed companies and major shareholders to support them to repurchase and increase their holdings of listed companies. This marks the implementation of the two monetary policy tools announced by the central bank to support the capital market.

People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng's keynote speech at the 2024 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference on the 18th also attracted the attention of foreign media. United States Wall Street Journal, Nikkei Asia Japan other media outlets, China's central bank governor on Friday reiterated an earlier pledge to further ease monetary policy by the end of the year. Pan Gongsheng said, "On September 27, the deposit reserve ratio has been lowered by 0.5 percentage points, and it is expected that the reserve requirement ratio will be further reduced by 0.25-0.5 percentage points depending on the market liquidity situation by the end of the year", "This morning, commercial banks have announced a reduction in deposit interest rates, and it is expected that the loan market prime rate (LPR) announced next Monday will also fall by 0.2-0.25 percentage points."

United Kingdom Financial Times, the news released by China's central bank boosted market sentiment. China's stock market generally closed up on the 18th. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3261.56 points, up 2.91%; The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,357.68 points, up 4.71%; The CSI 300 closed at 3925.23 points, up 3.62%.

"The Chinese government's policy pivot occurred in late September," the Wall Street Journal said, when the PBOC announced plans to lower interest rates and created a structural monetary policy tool to support domestic capital markets for the first time. A series of policy statements followed. As investors weigh the importance of each new move, the stock market fluctuates with it. In the six trading days to Oct. 8, the CSI 300 index surged more than 30%, up more than 10% from the beginning of the year. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index is about 22% higher than the level at the beginning of the year.

"The moment of truth is coming." According to the Wall Street Journal, the Standing Committee of China's National People's Congress will meet at the end of this month. It is highly anticipated that the meeting will approve a new large-scale fiscal programme. Nikkei Asia said investors are closely watching whether Beijing will announce the specifics of the fiscal stimulus package at the meeting and disclose the size of the additional bond issuance.

Activate investor and consumer confidence

Pan Helin, a well-known economist and member of the Information and Communication Economy Expert Committee of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, told the Global Times that the introduction of favorable policies at the end of the third quarter and the favorable policy after the holiday in October have played a good role in the stock market and property market, but this is not reflected in the economic data in the third quarter. "So these positives are likely to come into play in the fourth quarter, activating investor and consumer confidence, so that we can well meet our full-year development targets."

Germany TV reported that there are signs that China's economy will stabilize and rebound in the fourth quarter. Since the beginning of October, the price of electricity consumption and some means of production has increased. Strong spending during the National Day holiday is also hopeful. Sheng Laiyun said at a press conference on the 18th that statistics from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism show that during the 7 days of the "National Day" Golden Week, the number of domestic travelers increased by 5.9% year-on-year on a comparable basis, the travel expenditure increased by 6.3%, and the number of travelers increased by 7.9% over the same period in 2019.

CNBC quoted Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the United Kingdom Economist Intelligence Unit, as saying: "With real GDP growing by 4.8% in the first three quarters of this year, the target of full-year GDP growth of around 5% is now within reach with additional stimulus measures in the fourth quarter." He also believes that "given the government's commitment to boosting the economy, there are reasons to be more optimistic about growth in the coming years".

The German Press Agency said on the 18th that Germany companies in China also welcomed the Chinese government's policy of boosting the economy. Maximilian · Butek, Executive Director of the East China Regional Office of the German Chamber of Commerce in Germany, said: "The stimulus package sends a signal to market participants that the government is aware of and points out the country's economic problems. ”

"Global funds have rekindled confidence in China's near-term prospects." According to Hong Kong's "South China Morning Post" reported on the 18th, United States Principal Fund Management said that China is taking "meaningful" measures to revitalize the economy, and investor sentiment has changed. Fund managers in the Asia-Pacific region have also become more optimistic as expectations of stronger easing have grown, as expectations for stronger easing have grown, and they have invested more in Chinese assets, according to a survey by Bank of United States this month.