The second round of tariff war between the United States and Europe against China is being launched, and even if China releases its goodwill for "peace talks", the United States and the West still ignore the start of the tariff war, so where is our counterattack? Can it really hurt the United States and the West?
According to Russian media reports, Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao said during a meeting with the Italy Deputy Prime Minister: "We regret to learn that the European Commission hastenedly and quickly completely rejected the package proposed by the Chinese side..." This passage directly indicates that the EU has not sincerely ignored the series of dispute settlement plans proposed by China, which is a pessimistic signal to expectations, because China's initial countermeasures against the EU cannot alert the other side. If the European Commission insists on imposing high-intensity tariffs on EV imports from China, there is a high probability that this trade war will break out in full swing, and is it really in the EU's interest? In addition, United States' high tariffs on a series of products such as China's electric vehicles have been set in stone, and it seems that the second round of trade war has entered the prelude, but our game-breaking trick is also about to be played.
First of all, we should note that Minister Wang Wentao's statement was made on the occasion of a meeting with the Italy leadership, which indicates that the European side may still have room for maneuver. Italy Deputy Prime Minister Tajani said that Italy has asked the European Commission to handle the case according to regulations to avoid interfering with Sino-European cooperation, and at the same time welcomes Chinese car companies to choose to invest in Italy. After the meeting between the leaders of China and Italy, Spain Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez also embarked on a four-day visit to China, and bilateral economic and trade relations are the focus of the visit, but to what extent will this affect China-EU relations? It is also worth pondering. Returning to the topic just now, is it really in Europe's real economic interests to start a tariff war and a trade war against China? Germany car companies have repeatedly called out their governments and the EU that they are unwilling to start a trade war with China, and stressed that they have enough ability to compete with Chinese car companies in the market. It stands to reason that the leaders that provide economic aggregate and jobs for Europe's traditional industries are unwilling to fight a trade war, so is it necessary for the EU to declare war on China out of economic interests?
This matter still has to return to the international pattern of Sino-US and European relations, and the United States and Europe are already determined to block China's electric vehicles from going global. From a political and economic point of view, the upstream and downstream markets of the electric vehicle industry are very huge, from battery production to the control of intelligent systems, and even how to affect a country's infrastructure, which is not only China's economic breakthrough, but also a political breakthrough, the United States and Europe are naturally unwilling to share the next stage of the cake, one more person on the table. In fact, this trend has been unstoppable, especially under the Fed's large-scale interest rate cuts, China's economy will also be affected to a certain extent, the 50 basis points of the cut will inevitably push the RMB to a higher price level, and large-scale capital flow back to the domestic market, which is a severe test for the US dollar and US bonds.
It is believed that the central bank will control it to a certain extent, but it is not good news for the United States and Europe to occupy developed markets for a long time and gradually "decouple" from China. Vertically, the appreciation of the renminbi will promote the dependence of the world's "southern countries" on the realization of the swap of the two currencies, thereby further weakening the position of the dollar and the euro. At the same time, the appreciation of renminbi assets may be more conducive to China's expansion in the European market, and relying solely on tariffs to block goods will not stop the attractiveness of Chinese capital to European countries and markets. How to break this game, I am afraid that the future will be left to Europe as a headache.