Liu Chao, Dairy Industry Association: After the epidemic, dairy products tend to be high-end, and milk prices are difficult to adjust in the fourth quarter

Beijing News (reporter Guo Tie) At the fourth China Dairy Capital Forum, Liu Chao, vice chairman and executive deputy secretary general of the China Dairy Industry Association, said that after the epidemic, dairy product consumption has upgraded significantly, the overall products tend to be high-end, and the demand for dairy imports is strong, but the problems of high milk prices and strong dependence on the international market are still prominent.

From January to July 2021, China's liquid milk production increased by 14.61% year-on-year, dairy product output increased by 8.53% year-on-year, national dairy processing sales revenue increased by 14.22% year-on-year, total profit increased by 39.09% year-on-year, and the increase in sales revenue was much greater than the increase in products. Liu Chao believes that this shows that the consumption upgrade after the epidemic is obvious, and the overall products of enterprises tend to be high-end. In addition, due to the strong market demand from January to August this year, China's dairy products imports grew rapidly, with a total of 2.8545 million tons of various types of dairy products imported, an increase of 31%; the import value increased by 17.7% year-on-year, and the conversion of fresh milk increased by 28.8% year-on-year, "indicating that China's dairy market demand is strong and has great potential."

Liu Chao believes that the semi-annual report of listed dairy enterprises this year shows that the overall momentum of the industry is growing strongly, but with the rapid development of the dairy industry, deep-seated problems have also become prominent, such as unbalanced regional development, excess and shortage of dairy market structure, and increasing dependence on the international market, affecting the healthy and stable development of the industry.

Specifically, at present, China imports dairy products from nearly 60 countries and regions in the world, and the amount has increased year by year, reaching 1/4 of the total dairy trade in the world. In 2020, the total value of Imported Dairy Products in China was 102.621 billion yuan, equivalent to 24.5% of the total output value of the domestic dairy industry. In addition, China has entered the ranks of the world's high milk prices, with the continuous withdrawal of small-scale family cattle, the expansion of dairy farms, the increase in feed costs, the average price of fresh milk in 10 provinces in China has risen from 3.47 yuan / kg in October 2015 to 4.37 yuan / kg in October 2021, while the international milk price in the same period is basically more than 2 yuan, "with the arrival of the fourth quarter dairy sales season, we predict that milk prices will be difficult to adjust."

The China Dairy Capital Forum was held by Securities Daily, and the rapid development of sub-sectors such as cheese and probiotics has attracted attention from the industry. Zhao Hui, general manager of Kantar Consumer Index Northern, believes that there are several major trends in the future dairy market: one is health, such as zero fat, zero additives, zero sugar and functional additives; the second is green environmental protection; the third is fresh; the fourth is cross-border; and the fifth is technology.

Beijing News reporter Guo Tie

Edited by Li Yan Proofreader Zhao Lin