#头条首发大赛#
Bold, careful, and ruthless, it can be described as a true portrayal of Israel. In the past few days, Israel has successively assassinated the top military commander of the Allah Party, Shukel, and Hamas's supreme leader Hania, according to a report by the Israel Times on August 4, on the morning of the 3rd local time, the Israeli army launched a drone attack in the southern Lebanon town of Bazuriye, and killed Ali · Abdel ·Ali, an important leader of the Allah Party who is responsible for activities in all areas of southern Lebanon. The success of this series of assassinations not only shows that Israel has won a great victory in the intelligence war, but also a slap in the face to Iran.
On the one hand, whether it is Allah or Hamas, they are subordinate armed forces funded or even controlled by Iran, and important figures under their command are frequently assassinated, and as the leader of the anti-Israel alliance in the Middle East, Iran is also disgraced; On the other hand, what makes Tehran feel "landless" is that Hamas's supreme leader Haniyeh was still a guest in Tehran and was assassinated by Israel under his nose, and Israel officials also specially said that they chose to do it when Haniah was in Iran, which is a naked slap in the face to Iran.
Therefore, even if Shukel and Ali die, Iran can be regarded as "invisible", but with the death of Hania, Iran must "find the field", otherwise it will not be able to mix in the Middle East in the future, the younger brothers will not be convinced, and United States and Israel will become more and more unscrupulous. However, as Song Zhongping, a well-known domestic and international expert, said, Iran's supreme leader Khamenei is actually being "roasted on a fire", saying that revenge is easy, but how to retaliate is a difficult problem. Why Hania's death made Khamenei feel "embarrassed" is mainly because of these two reasons.
On the one hand, Khamenei is under intense pressure from domestic hardliners. Hardliners in Iran demand that Khamenei retaliate against Israel in a substantive, not symbolic, one, and that Khamenei is too weak for Israel to dare to carry out assassinations in Iran again and again, and that if it does not harden, the consequences will be unimaginable.
On the other hand, it is difficult for Khamenei to be tough, because the consequences of doing so are very serious. For example, Khamenei himself may be "in danger", Israel attacked the site of Iran's nuclear facilities on Khamenei's birthday, the former president of Iran died unexplained, and now Haniye is being killed under his nose. Israel's intelligence war has proven to be excellent, and Iran seems to have been infiltrated into a sieve, in which case, if Khamenei is serious about Israel, it will be his turn to be next.
Therefore, although it has been several days since Haniyeh was killed, and even Haniyeh himself has been buried in the ground, Iran has been slow to decide how to "retaliate". It is widely believed that Tehran is likely to launch drones and ballistic missiles on Israel soil in a "symbolic retaliation" as it did last time, so as not to plunge the two sides into war. But if this is the case, Khamenei will not be able to explain his domestic toughness, which is equivalent to the transformation of the external crisis into an internal crisis, and if he fights back, Khamenei is afraid that he will not be able to protect himself, which is the "trouble" of the supreme leader.
In fact, as troubled as Iran, there is also the United States. We have said that Israel's successive assassinations of senior leaders of Allah and Hamas are actually sending a signal to United States, that is, Israel will never accept peace talks, and United States will either support Israel to take Gaza or be dragged into war by Israel. So now the United States is also very troubled, on the one hand, President Biden reaffirmed his firm support for Israel's security and sent an additional aircraft carrier battle group to the Middle East; On the other hand, Biden "burst into foul language" and forcefully pressured Netanyahu to reach a peace agreement with Hamas.
But is this possible? It's no longer possible. Mo said that Israel is determined to eradicate Hamas and take all of Gaza; Even if Israel is willing to talk now, can Hamas continue to talk? His own supreme leader and his family of more than 60 people were all killed by Israel, so how can they "talk about peace"? Therefore, the dawn of a peaceful settlement of this round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict is basically completely extinguished, and now there are two ways in front of United States - either support Israel to take Gaza and bear the blame for the Jews; Or wait to be dragged into a bigger war by Israel.
Therefore, through this series of precise riots, Israel mobilized the two major powers of United States and Iran at the same time, and at the same time put them in a "dilemma", this step seems dangerous, but in fact the probability of success is very high, the reason is simple, there is an ancient Chinese saying called "the lesser of two evils". Nine times out of ten, Iran finally "confessed", when its embassy was bombed and so many people died, it was symbolic revenge, after all, Haniyeh is just a "guest", although he was slapped in the face by Israel, but it did not hurt the root, there was no need to make a "total war".
As far as United States is concerned, the top priority now is to "trap Russia" and "contain China," and it does not have so much energy to deal with the chaos in the Middle East, and it will be troublesome if it is trapped in the Middle East by Israel, and both China and Russia are smiling. Therefore, the White House has no choice, rather than being dragged into the war by Israel, it is better to support Israel to take Gaza, and carry the pot on the back, the long pain is better than the short pain, "the lesser of two evils". Therefore, the chances of success in Israel's scheme are actually very high.