In the chaotic Middle East, in the end, it is up to the two great powers to set the tone.
After the assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh, Iran raised the "revenge flag" again, vowing to retaliate against Israel.
This is not the first time, Iran has been thundering and raining; To be honest, Iran is also quite rare, and even the toughest figures are difficult to decide.
Because Iran has a pile of domestic problems, it cannot form a joint force externally; I also thought that Iran and the Arab countries were not very good, there were many problems.
This time, the assassination of the Hamas leader in Iran or while attending the inauguration of the president of Iran is a great humiliation that no country can endure.
Many of Iran's national treasure-level nuclear scientists have been nakedly assassinated;
The leader of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps was assassinated in an execution-style manner, and it was broadcast live around the world;
Former Iran President Raisi was confused about the accident, and the cause is confusing;
Iran embassy in Syria was blatantly bombed by Israel······
Isn't it said that the Iran Persians are very capable of fighting and very warlike? How did this happen?
Three reasons:
The first reason: Iran is not actually afraid of Israel, but of United States.
Iran is afraid that the United States will one day come to a "Iran war" and overthrow their regime, as it did with Iraq.
Look at the stationing of United States troops around Iran, almost encircling Iran. It would be easier to launch a "war in Iran" than it was to launch the "war in Iraq."
The second reason: Iran has been infiltrated by Israel, to the point where it cannot be eliminated.
Before the religious revolution in Iran, their relations with Arab countries were particularly tense, but their relations with Israel were very close;
With the help of Israel, Iran has established a complete intelligence system, and almost all secret front personnel are trained by Israel.
Now, I don't know how many Israel eyeliners and spies there are in Iran;
Iran's top brass also does not know how many Israel personnel there are.
In such a situation, how can Iran fight with Israel?
At that time, Iran's nuclear scientists were heavily protected, but they always could not escape the fate of being assassinated, which was done by internal ghosts; Now, almost no one in Iran dares to engage in nuclear science.
Soleimani should be very powerful, but any of his whereabouts are in the hands of the other party, and it is absolutely impossible to assassinate him unless someone from inside provides it.
This time, Hania was killed, apparently because the inner ghost provided information; Or is it provided by a high-powered inner ghost; Because ordinary people don't even know where Chania lives, and it is impossible to know Chania's whereabouts.
The third reason: Iran is too divided.
In fact, the religious revolution in Iran was a bit like the October Revolution in the later period of Tsarist Russia. Dissatisfied with the corruption and incompetence of the dynasty, everyone suddenly poured into the streets to carry out revolution.
And the dynasty also quickly collapsed, and the revolution succeeded. This makes the revolution in Iran essentially a "bloodless coup."
The revolution succeeded because there was no bloodshed, and it was impossible to distinguish who was for itself and who was against.
Iran has been so confused until now, and the pro-American forces and elites at home are still there, and they have also become revolutionary heroes.
What has remained of such an incomplete revolution is that the opposition to the government in Iran is particularly strong. Many of them occupy high positions and form so-called "moderates"; There are more such people in society, and most of them are rich and have vested interests.
This situation has also made it impossible for Iran's hardliners to firmly attack Israel.
Because as long as they fight back, the country will immediately become a mess and there will be no way to clean it up. When the time comes, Israel is not defeated, and they themselves may fall.
Therefore, this time Iran shouted for revenge, probably just shouting, it is difficult to make a big move.
Finally, the Middle East still needs two major powers to set the tone: how to solve the Israel problem; how the Arab countries are unanimous; how to reconcile relations between Iran and Arab countries; What kind of state did the Palestinians build······
and so on, all of which need to be solved.
And both powers have their chips in their hands.
