Britain has changed its prime minister again, this time even the ruling party. As a former world hegemon, why is Britain now experiencing political chaos, economic stagnation, and soaring prices?
Let's start with the conclusion, the decline of Britain is actually the result of the decline of American hegemony.
On July 5, local time, according to the results of the vote count, the ruling Conservative Party suffered Waterloo, and the opposition Labor Party won more than half of the seats in the election of the lower house of parliament and won the election. Labour leader Keir Starmer will become the new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and form a government.
Since Theresa May succeeded Cameron as British Prime Minister in 2016, Britain has experienced 6 prime ministers in the past 8 years, of which the shortest Truss has only been in office for more than 40 days. Even Johnson, who has been in the job for the longest time, has only been for 3 years.
Britain's political turmoil can be said to be unobstructed. Britain is in turmoil today, not only politically, but also economically. UK GDP contracted by 0.1% in the third quarter of 2023 and by 0.3% in the fourth quarter. It is not easy to rebound in the first quarter of this year, but in April, the month-on-month GDP growth was 0.
The economy has stagnated, but prices have skyrocketed. UK CPI came in at 3.5% in May, up 2% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. After the US rate hike, the UK also raised interest rates. But even if the UK raises interest rates, this price still can't be suppressed.
Energy prices and food prices in the UK have skyrocketed, and from March this year to the UK general election, there have been 11 strikes by junior doctors in the UK alone.
Economics and politics always influence each other. The political turmoil has affected the long-term economic development of the United Kingdom. The economy has fallen into stagflation, which has further led to political turmoil.
For example, this time the Labour Party replaced the Conservative Party, which had been in power for 14 years, which means that Britain has returned from the right to the center-left. In addition, there is also an undercurrent within the United Kingdom, Scotland has always wanted independence, and if the British economy declines further, it really does not rule out the possibility of them becoming independent.
The problems that we can see are actually superficial problems, and the real essence of Britain's problem is not in Britain itself, but in the hegemony of the United States.
Britain and the United States are completely one and the other, and the other is at the loss. After World War II, Britain's power plummeted, and as a result, it relinquished its position as the world's hegemon. However, in the past few years, as an old power, the United Kingdom is still a major P5. However, due to cultural and economic problems, Britain can only choose to rely on the United States, and has no way to develop independently in the international community. Britain is far inferior to France in this regard.
In the past, the United States was hegemonic and strong, the United States ate meat, and Britain drank soup. But now, with the decline of American hegemony, the United States can't eat its own meat, does Britain still have soup to drink?
The essence of wealth acquisition by Britain and the United States is not by industrial export, but by plunder. In the past, Britain seized a large number of colonies in the world by force, and then continued to suck blood from these colonies. After World War II, the model of military colonization began to collapse, so Britain and the United States began to use the thinking of financial colonization to plunder the wealth of other countries.
They first moved their hard-working, low-end and low-end manufacturing to other countries, and then took the opportunity to export dollars and pounds to those countries. Why do Britain and the United States want to give you the opportunity to make money, in fact, they are just to export currency to you. When other countries hold large amounts of dollars and pounds, they can use the monetary tidal effect to plunder the wealth of other countries.
This model has been tried and tested in the past, and it has also brought great wealth to Britain and the United States. However, there is a problem with this model, that is, the transfer of a large number of industries will lead to the hollowing out of their own industries, which is now a problem in the United States and the United Kingdom.
When other countries trade large enough to support their currencies against the dollar, the dollar's harvesting model begins to fail.
This time the US interest rate hike cycle has seen a lot of anomalies. First, the United States has raised interest rates 11 times in a row, the highest in history, but it has not collapsed any major economy, and even Russia's GDP is growing. Second, the U.S. interest rate hike cannot suppress domestic inflation, but it has turned the real economy into a miasma. Third, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Europe have all chosen to cut interest rates before the United States, which is also the first time in history.
The reason why the sickle of the United States has not been able to cut much this time is that there is a superpower in the East, which has dragged the whole world to the bottom. Russia and Iran, countries that have broken away from the dollar, have chosen to cooperate with him and thus get a new lease of life.
There is only so much wealth in the world, and if there is more in the East, there will naturally be less in the West. Britain's current problems are no longer something that can be solved by changing the prime minister or political party.
The last question is, how much impact will the new prime minister of the United Kingdom have on us? In fact, the relationship between Britain and China is also a microcosm of Sino-US relations, so no matter who becomes the prime minister of the United Kingdom, whether it should cooperate or cooperate, and the competition should also be the same competition, this major premise will basically not change.