CFIC Introduction
Under the influence of multiple factors such as the continuous decline in deposit interest rates and the suspension of "manual interest supplementation" by regulators, the scale of bank wealth management has continued to increase rapidly since April. According to the statistics of Puyi Standard, as of mid-June, the scale of bank wealth management has exceeded 29 trillion yuan. At the end of June, affected by the pressure of "quarter-end return", the scale of bank wealth management declined.
Looking forward to the second half of the year, industry insiders believe that with the gradual recovery of consumption and investment activities, the wealth management market is expected to continue to grow. In addition, if the deposit interest rate is further reduced, superimposed by the impulse of bank wealth management companies, the overall scale of wealth management in the second half of the year is expected to exceed 30 trillion yuan.
In the first half of the year, the scale of wealth management increased significantly
"Wealth management products are selling well this year." A few days ago, when the reporter went to some bank outlets in Beijing to investigate, a number of bank wealth managers told the reporter that out of consideration of factors such as yield, some customers began to try to buy low-risk bank wealth management products after the deposit expired.
In the context of the downward trend of deposit interest rates, the phenomenon of "deposit moving" has emerged, and part of the funds have flowed to the bank wealth management market with relatively higher returns, promoting the growth of wealth management scale. According to the statistics of Puyi Standard, as of mid-June, the scale of bank wealth management has exceeded 29 trillion yuan. At the end of June, the scale of bank wealth management fell to about 28.29 trillion yuan, an increase of about 1.49 trillion yuan from the end of 2023. Among them, the scale of cash management wealth management products and fixed income wealth management products has increased more.
A number of experts said that since the beginning of this year, the overall "quantity and price" of bank wealth management have been excellent, and the seasonal effect of wealth management funds has weakened marginally. Generally speaking, in June, the scale of bank wealth management tends to fall due to the pressure of "returning to the balance sheet at the end of the quarter". The so-called "quarter-end return statement" means that under the pressure of the balance sheet assessment of the parent bank of the wealth management company, the maturity setting of wealth management products often coincides with the end of the quarter, and the scale of wealth management at the end of the quarter is mostly month-on-month, which is especially obvious in March and June, when the deposit pressure of the parent bank is greater.
Industry insiders believe that the pressure of the "quarter-end return" in June this year is relatively light as a whole. According to Xiao Jinchuan, co-chief macro analyst of Huaxi Securities, the scale of wealth management shrank by 640.2 billion yuan in June, lower than the decline in the same period since 2020. Judging from past data, the scale of wealth management in June from 2020 to 2023 decreased by 1.47 trillion yuan, 1.4 trillion yuan, 0.8 trillion yuan, and 1.18 trillion yuan respectively.
Image source: Huaxi Securities Research Report
In the second half of the year, the scale of wealth management is expected to return to a high level
"Since April this year, the scale of wealth management has accelerated the rise, and the reasons are: first, the return of funds to financial management after the end of the first quarter; Second, under the requirement of prohibiting 'manual interest supplementation', deposits will accelerate the 'moving' flow to wealth management; third, the performance of fixed-income wealth management products under the debt cattle is relatively good, attracting funds to enter. Zhang Jiqiang, deputy director of Huatai Securities Research Institute, analyzed.
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the financial market department of Everbright Bank, also believes that recently, the sentiment of the domestic financial market has picked up, the net value of wealth management products has gradually rebounded, and the income situation has improved.
Looking forward to the second half of the year, a number of experts said that with the rapid decline of the yield center of the bond market to a low level, the allocation methods such as high-interest deposits and trust smoothing mechanisms are limited, and the center of financial yield of more than 3% lacks a strong grip, and the actual yield of wealth management will tend to decline. With the decline in the benchmark of wealth management performance and the rate of return, the growth of wealth management scale is expected to slow down.
Specifically, Liao Zhiming, chief analyst of the banking industry of China Merchants Securities, expects that the scale of wealth management will increase to about 30 trillion yuan by the end of 2024. Ming Ming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, believes that from the perspective of historical data, bank wealth management companies have always had the practice of impulsing in the second half of the year, and the wealth management companies under Chinese banks are more obvious. It is expected that driven by state-owned banks, the scale of wealth management is expected to regain 31 trillion yuan in the second half of 2024.
Source of this article: China Securities Journal
Author: Zhang Jialin
WeChat editor: Guan Qiao
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