One night changes! The transaction price of second-hand housing in many cities has "disappeared collectively", what is the signal?

Wisdom Valley Trends

2024-06-18 14:16Published in Chief Wealth Advisor of Guangdong New Middle School

◎智谷趋势（ID：zgtrend） | 瓜片

Did you find that house prices have fallen to this day, and more and more data have mysteriously disappeared......

Nanjing off the shelves, Zhenjiang off the shelves, Nantong off the shelves!

Zhengzhou off the shelves, Hefei off the shelves, Changsha off the shelves!

Hangzhou is off the shelves, Wuhan is off the shelves, and Zhuhai is off the shelves!

Recently, in a large number of well-known cities across the country, the transaction price of second-hand housing has become chaotic.

In addition to the first- and second-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Xi'an, which have long been removed from the shelves, the transaction prices of shell second-hand houses in more than 13 cities have "collectively disappeared"! I heard that Suzhou and Guangzhou are also brewing. In a few cities, even the total number of second-hand listings is invisible.

From the Greater Bay Area to the Bohai Bay, from the Yangtze River Delta to the Great Northwest, an invisible "data iron curtain" has risen overnight, enveloping the entire property market.

Why did the major cities move so quickly and put down the "iron gates" almost as if they had been discussed?

Why has the regulation of the property market finally come to the point where it is necessary to "move the knife" on the transaction price of second-hand housing?

Why does the comprehensive obscuration of transaction information may become a key turning point in the direction of the property market?

Behind this action, there is a deep meaning.

The second-hand housing market is an extremely important "property market vane". Lately, the wind has not been good.

The just-released housing price index of the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the second-hand housing market in 70 large and medium-sized cities across the country is "wiped out", and none of the cities have risen month-on-month.

From the first and second tiers to the third and fourth tiers, no city has stepped out of the "independent market".

According to estimates, the second-hand housing price index fell by 1.0% month-on-month in May, falling for 14 consecutive months and hitting the largest decline in nearly a decade.

In the cloudy property market, the transaction price of second-hand housing has gradually become the most unpleasant "gas bag".

The overall information environment composed of second-hand housing transaction prices has become a major problem hindering the recovery of the property market, and this "stumbling block" must be moved!

Why?

Do you think, compared with two or three years ago, the transaction price of the same community has fallen by hundreds of thousands, and at most it has fallen by millions.

For example, in the following community, there are 3 bedrooms and 2 living rooms of the same area, but the orientation and floor are slightly different. In 2021, the transaction price was 2.95 million, and in 2024, the transaction price fell to 1.3 million.

It's not a waist cut anymore, it's a knee cut.

People who haven't bought a house come to see it and think to themselves, what if it hasn't fallen to the bottom yet? If you don't buy it, I won't buy it, and it will drop by two hundred tomorrow.

People who have bought a house come to see it, and they are completely dead, and they just want to repay the loan in advance, and the monthly payment and interest can be a little less.

Not only did it fail to promote the transaction, but it aggravated the wait-and-see mood, which incidentally angered some owners.

You may ask, isn't information transparency a must for a healthy market? Am I buying a house for millions without even knowing the previous transaction price?

The answer to this may be realistic and helpless:

On the second-hand housing price platform represented by Shell, in order to reverse the overall trend of housing prices, the killer feature of regulation and control is to create information gaps.

There is no need to go back far, just 3 years ago, when the momentum of rising housing prices was in full swing, in order to suppress the rapid rise of second-hand housing prices, many cities, including Guangzhou and Shenzhen, also resorted to this trick, directly blocking the second-hand housing transaction records.

Only when the transaction price of second-hand housing is obscured, can the government's second-hand housing guide price really start to play a role, and the guidance of the policy can be gradually implemented.

Otherwise, who can break the up/down spiral of house prices?

You must know that in China's property market, when housing prices rise or fall unilaterally, its inertia is far stronger than ordinary people imagine. Like a spiral of constant self-reinforcement, it seems that there is no end in sight.

Owners who have felt this up/down force in the property market must have felt it.

It should be pointed out that real estate agents play a crucial role in the formation of this up/down spiral.

This is because China uses an intermediary brokerage for real estate transactions, and the intermediary holds two of them in one hand and relies on matching transactions to obtain commission returns. There are two benefits to this model.

One is to allow the intermediary to remain neutral and not bias towards the buyer or the seller. Second, it is more efficient, and it is not easy to have a buyer and seller rip off.

But!

When there is a unilateral rise/fall in housing prices, the disadvantages of the intermediary brokerage model are exposed.

Let's take the moment as an example, in order to match the transaction, some intermediaries who are eager to make money began to frantically "hunt" owners who are unwilling to reduce prices, and even a war broke out between the two sides.

Some time ago, an intermediary company in Shenzhen was exposed to a "SOP (standardized process) that facilitated the transaction", which shocked the jaws of many owners. The purpose of this process is:

Respect the law, grasp human nature, and identify the weakness.

The intermediary company will directly ask the intermediary to pick out a set of properties in each community to "falsely report the low price", and encourage peer dissemination.

In order to convey anxiety to the owners, so that the owners take the initiative to reduce the price.

A self-media blogger @猪哥哥 once gave a very graphic description of this kind of second-hand housing price reduction:

100,000 people attend a beach concert, a dark cloud appears in the sky, and a few timid people leave the venue one after another, fearing the rain. At this time, there are thousands of voices on the beach: "It's going to be a hail the size of an egg!"

The panic spread rapidly, the crowd began to stampede, and the price reduction became inevitable, and even further formed a "plunge spiral".

This poses a huge challenge to stabilizing housing prices. In the face of this kind of chaos, the official will certainly not sit idly by.

For example, some time ago, the Changsha Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development took the lead in working with a number of departments to strictly investigate intermediaries suspected of maliciously lowering the price of second-hand housing and other violations of laws and regulations.

Beijing Daily also issued an article shouting: Don't use special cases to sing down the Beijing property market.

Will there be an official meaning behind the "disappearance of the transaction price" this time? You know.

It can be confirmed that covering the transaction price of second-hand housing is definitely a big move to "stabilize housing prices", which is accurate, efficient and unreasonable.

The reason why the transaction price of second-hand housing is "missing" is very important, not only to stabilize the price of second-hand housing, but also to have a very important meaning:

Stabilize the new housing market.

At present, where has China's property market been regulated? There is no doubt that developers still have a large number of new homes on their hands, rushing to ship, and are "exchanging price for volume".

Reducing prices and destocking is the main theme of the moment.

In the first five months of this year, the sales area of newly built commercial housing nationwide was 370 million square meters, down 20.3% year-on-year, and the sales of newly built commercial housing were 3.6 trillion yuan, down 27.9% year-on-year. (Data source: China Index Institute)

Although the decline is narrowing, the recovery is still a long way off, and it will not happen overnight.

In this situation, it has become extremely important to stabilize the price of second-hand housing. If the price of new houses is reduced and destocked, and the second-hand houses are still falling endlessly, it is easy to have a situation:

Price Reduction Contest.

Therefore, there is a subtle pattern here: if the second-hand housing cannot be stabilized, the new housing will not be able to recover; If new homes cannot be recovered, it will be difficult for second-hand homes to stabilize.

Let me give you an example of Hangzhou. A few years ago, Hangzhou's "new fight" frenzy was surging, and even the chairman of the real estate company went to line up to play the new, which was like a crazy demon. Why? It's not because of the price of new houses, there is a huge inversion with second-hand houses.

In the decade from 2014 to 2023, Hangzhou's new homes have always been far ahead of second-hand houses. In most years, new homes sold nearly twice as much as second-hand homes, and in 2014 and 2021, they even exaggerated to 3.4 times and 2.4 times.

In other words, the prosperity of Hangzhou's new housing market is based on the strong prices of second-hand houses. If the second-hand housing keeps falling and the inverted dividend disappears, the bubble will burst in an instant.

It shook the ground.

At the beginning of this year, the Hangzhou Shell Research Institute released a set of data:

At the end of 2023, the average transaction price of new houses in Hangzhou's ten districts has risen to 35,000 yuan/square meter, but the average transaction price of second-hand houses has dropped to 31,000 yuan/square meter.

The trend of the average monthly price of new/second-hand houses in Hangzhou, source: Hangzhou Shell Research Institute

Danger signals appeared, and the crowd quickly dispersed. Last year, the transaction volume of new houses in Hangzhou shrank by nearly 1/2 compared with the peak in 2021.

This year, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Hangzhou has surpassed that of new houses.

Do you think you can keep this situation going? How to play the bailout? But it spoils the place.

The following sets of data are enough to illustrate how anxious the situation has been:

From January to May this year, the top 100 real estate companies achieved sales of 1,413.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44.3%;

At the same time, nearly seventy percent of the top 100 real estate companies in sales have not yet taken land, and the top 5 central state-owned enterprises have taken a "big dive" in land;

Last year, Poly, which ranked first in the country in terms of land acquisition amount and area, disappeared from the top 10 land acquisitions;

Therefore, don't be jealous of the new house, ZF to save the new house is also to save the property market, so that the real estate operation back to the normal track, then the price of the second-hand house, there is hope for recovery.

You're right?

Just a few days ago, the National Standing Committee set the tone for the next step in real estate. The draft clearly stated that the development of the real estate industry is related to the vital interests of the people, and is related to the overall situation of economic operation and financial stability, which can be seen to attach great importance to it.

There was a quote from the meeting that was very noteworthy:

It is necessary to fully understand the new changes in the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market, conform to the new expectations of the people for high-quality housing, strive to promote the implementation of the policies and measures that have been introduced, and continue to study and reserve new policies and measures to destock and stabilize the market. For the digestion and revitalization of the stock of real estate and land, we must not only emancipate our minds and broaden our thinking, but also grasp them steadily and make solid progress.

You see, about the big move of stock real estate, isn't this going to be launched soon?

Recently, the property market has sent a series of major signals, showing subtle changes, the speed and frequency of policy adjustments are gradually accelerating, and the market has begun to respond.

For the second-hand housing market, a positive signal is: the "old and small" across the country, the transaction speed has accelerated significantly.

Second-hand houses located in core cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Nanjing, and Chengdu, especially those located in core areas, with convenient transportation, low total prices or educational resource bonuses, are being quickly "swept up" by groups in need.

It's not that young people don't buy a house, but they don't see the "cost performance" of getting into a car. There is no rigid demand in the property market, and when housing prices fall in place, there is just demand.

This long winter is always coming to an end.

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