Confused! At a time when China has introduced the strongest real estate stimulus policy in history, Da Mo has contrarian and issued a downgrade of Chinese real estate stocks, bearish on Chinese real estate stocks, what signal does this release to the outside world?
As we all know, yesterday China introduced the strongest real estate stimulus policy in 40 years, a total of 4 axes. First, the minimum down payment ratio for the first home is lowered to 15%, and the down payment ratio for the second home is reduced to 25%; Second, the proportion of provident fund loans was lowered by 0.25 percentage points, which means that the interest rate of provident fund loans dropped directly to 2.85%, breaking 3; The third is to cancel the lower limit of the commercial mortgage interest rate policy for the first and second houses at the national level, which shows that the commercial loan interest rate can have no lower limit, which is really powerful; Fourth, the central bank will set up a 300 billion yuan affordable housing re-loan to support local state-owned enterprises to purchase stock housing. It is equivalent to the direct receipt of state-owned assets, and the intensity of this destocking will be very large.
Therefore, as soon as these four axes came out, China Real Estate News directly pointed out that this is the most colorful day in the history of China's real estate! So yesterday, the real estate stocks of A-shares went crazy, and Vanke directly rose to the limit. But it is such an exciting time, when many people are gearing up to buy a house or enter the real estate stocks, Morgan Stanley, an internationally renowned investment institution, has come to pour cold water.
Da Mo directly issued a document saying that although Chinese real estate stocks have risen by about 50% since mid-April, driven by policy easing and improving investor sentiment, it will downgrade its view on China's real estate sector from attractive to consistent with the broader market, considering that the fundamentals are still weak, it will take time for the policy to take effect, and China's property market has not yet bottomed out, and private developers are still facing serious difficulties.
How do you feel when you see this news? Do you think Da Mo deliberately sang empty and deliberately poured cold water or did the arguments be sufficient and reasonable? In my opinion, Da Mo's analysis is still relatively objective and realistic.
First, yesterday's sharp rise in real estate stocks is still insufficient. This point is clear from the weakening of real estate stocks yesterday morning, in fact, including the central bank to cut interest rates, encourage state-owned enterprises to directly buy housing stock and other policy market should be expected, so Thursday real estate stocks rose sharply, it stands to reason that Friday out of the policy, Friday morning real estate stocks should be very strong. But the result is to pull up the shipment and run away, many tickets for Thursday's rise and closure board, such as Binjiang Group, Tiandiyuan, etc., are rotten, and Vanke is also very weak in early trading. Although the real estate rose strongly after the midday policy came out, it was obviously a visible hand that deliberately pulled it up. This is one of them.
Second, the future ceiling of real estate is already very obvious. The four-board axe introduced by the state this time is very strong, especially the direct storage of state-owned enterprises, which should be able to quickly strip off part of the inventory of real estate enterprises in the short term, and the short-term effect should be possible, or even immediate. However, it is difficult to change the downward trend of China's property market in the long run.
Why? Because for any industry or commodity to continue to thrive, it depends on two factors, one is supply and the other is demand. Let's talk about demand first, the house is used to live, in essence, it is still the attribute of living, and the current Chinese population has begun to show a negative growth trend, and even the scale of negative growth has continued to expand in the background. This means that the demand for houses by the Chinese population will inevitably decrease in the future.
In addition, the house is not a small piece, not a fast-moving consumer goods, but a large item with a service life of up to several decades. Moreover, China's per capita living area is currently in the upper middle of the world, which means that there is no shortage of houses in China at present, especially in cities like the 345th parallel, which is obviously oversupplied. Therefore, the ceiling of China's property market in the future is already very obvious.
At present, the strongest property market stimulus policy in the history of the country is simply to remove the inventory of current real estate companies. Let real estate enterprises quickly withdraw funds, repay loans from financial institutions, and prevent risk spread. However, with China's real de-real estate and the gradual dominance of new quality productivity, it is still difficult for China's property market to return to its former glory days in the future, which is the essence.
Therefore, it makes sense for Da Mo to be so bearish in the long run.