Semi-finals 2 groups tie seven! After G6, the American media announced the latest probability of winning the championship: the Mavericks 8.5% of the top of the list exceeded 6 percent

Pot basketball

2024-05-19 12:58Posted in Fujian Sports Creators

On May 19, Beijing time, the NBA playoffs division semifinals continued, and the Mavericks, who won the G5 Tianwang Mountain 3-2 lead, returned to their home court to usher in the competition with the Thunder series G6, and finally the Mavericks were once behind by 17 points, relying on the magical play in the last quarter 117-116 to beat the Thunder by one point, and the big score was 4-2 to advance to the Western Finals. It also updated and announced the probability of winning the championship according to big data at the first time, of which the Lone Ranger was 8.5%, and the top of the list was more than 6%.

Walkers: 2.8%

After losing Tianwang Mountain, the Pacers G6 returned to their home court and won the battle of life and death strongly, chasing the big score to a 3-3 draw, and successfully dragged the series into a tiebreaker.

Because the tie-break will be played at the Knicks' home court, while the Pacers have been suppressed by the opponent throughout the series, and the core team lacks playoff experience, the probability of winning the championship ranks last on the list.

However, the Knicks' injury situation could be a turning point, and with the Pacers being a team with a very high offensive ceiling, the tie-break is full of uncertainty.

Knicks: 5.6%

Under Thibodeau's leadership, the Knicks have played a commendable collective and execution this season, with Brunson on the offensive end and a team-oriented top-notch system on the defensive end.

Unfortunately, the team's injury situation is too serious, and Iron Man Hart is also injured in G6, but according to NBA official information, Hart and Anunoby's current injury status is "doubtful (50% likely to play)", and both want to play in G7.

As a result, the Knicks have an absolute advantage in the tie-break, but in the long run, the injury-plagued Knicks have poor prospects for the championship.

Lone Ranger: 8.5%

After defeating the Thunder away from Tianwang Mountain, the Mavericks who returned to their home court did not give the Thunder a chance, and when they were once behind by 17 points, the Mavericks broke out in the final quarter to complete a big reversal, and defeated the first Thunder in the West with a big score of 4-2 to advance to the Western Finals.

The Mavericks will await the winner between the Timberwolves and the Nuggets for a chance to win the Western Conference and advance to the Finals.

Judging from the performance of the first two rounds of the playoffs, there is an obvious problem with the depth of the Mavericks' roster, so the probability of making it to the Western Conference finals is only 33.5%, and the probability of winning the championship is less than 10 percentage points.

Timberwolves: 9.5%

After losing Tianwang Mountain, the Timberwolves, who returned to their home court in G6, did not let the series end, but won a 45-point victory, chasing the big score to a 3-3 draw, and successfully dragged the series into a tie-break.

The only problem is that the tie-break is played at the Nuggets' home court, plus the G6 Timberwolves won by a big margin, and there is no initiative in tactical adjustment in the tie-break, so the probability of advancing to the Western Conference finals is 42.2%.

Even so, the Timberwolves still rank third in the league in the probability of winning the championship, because from the perspective of competitiveness, whether it is the Timberwolves or the Nuggets to advance to the Western Conference finals, there is a high probability that they will be the team that will kill the West.

Nuggets: 10.8%

After winning Tianwang Mountain, the Nuggets G6 suffered a 45-point defeat away (the second-largest loss margin in playoff history), except for Jokic, the rest of the team was completely limited by the Timberwolves and seemed to be completely broken down by the opponent.

But judging from the overall tone of this round of the series, it is not uncommon for the two teams to break up with each other, and it is believed that after a big loss, the Nuggets who return to their home court will respond.

No matter who advances to the Western Conference finals between the Timberwolves and the Nuggets, they will be the more favored side in the Western Conference finals, and the probability of the two teams winning the championship by about 10 percentage points is also obviously underestimated by big data.

Celtic: 62.8%

So far in the playoffs, the Celtics have led the big data championship rankings, because they have really had a smooth journey in the playoffs, and they have reached the Eastern Conference finals with almost no obstacles.

Considering the limited strength of potential opponents Pacers and Knicks, the former lacks depth and experience, and the latter's injury situation is too serious, no matter which team advances to the Eastern Conference finals, there is a high probability that it will not be able to prevent the Celtics from reaching the finals.

It's just that the probability of winning the championship of more than 6% is obviously overestimated by this Celtics, because the Celtics are a team that lacks finishing ability at critical moments, and is not a top championship team.

The probability screenshot is below

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