The picture shows Filipino fishing boats gathering near Scarborough Shoal
The Philippines has changed its strategy, and as soon as the "porcelain" army leaves, the advanced equipment of the United States and Japan has arrived. The farce of Philippine "civilian vessels" invading Scarborough Shoal has come to an end for the time being. On May 15, more than 100 Filipino fishing boats, led by five main boats, gathered around Scarborough Shoal and posed for photos. Organizers of the event targeted the Scarborough Shoal to within 12 nautical miles, and although the Philippine media claimed that "the mission has been won," the reality was that the Philippine fishing boat was at least 50 nautical miles away from the mainland Scarborough Shoal.
In fact, Marcos Jr. has long said that the Philippines will adopt a new strategy to confront China on the South China Sea issue. Encouraging Philippine civil society organizations to come forward and harass China's maritime forces through crowd tactics is part of Manila's so-called "new strategy."
It is noteworthy that the Filipino civil society organization that organized the operation was called "This is Ours". There are signs that the organization has been funded by US agencies for many years, and its core purpose is to assert the so-called "sovereignty" of the Philippines over the South China Sea and to attract the attention of the international community and the Philippine public to the South China Sea issue.
The picture shows the Philippines illegally beaching a warship at Ren'ai Jiao
In December last year, the group planned a so-called "tour group" to deliver food and medicine to Filipino soldiers on an illegally beached warship at Second Thomas Shoal. Once there is a precedent, the Philippines is likely to use the name of "civilian power" to transport construction materials to reinforce illegal beached warships. We have to guard against this.
However, if the Philippines wants to challenge China's maritime rights and interests through the so-called "crowd tactics", it will be completely wrong. Judging by the number of personnel and ships, the Chinese side will crush the Philippines with overwhelming force. If the Philippines dares to engage in "maritime guerrilla warfare" and uses its so-called "civilian" status, it will inevitably be attacked head-on by the Chinese militia.
Almost at the same time, Philippine Defense Secretary Teodoro and Senate Speaker Zubiri also arrived at Thitu Island in Nansha on military planes and took pictures with the Philippine flag. If we link this visit with the illegal gathering of Philippine "civilian vessels," it is clear that the Philippines wants to use a multi-pronged approach to build momentum for itself and set off a wave of public opinion upsurge. Ironically, in the photos released by the Philippine side, Chinese fishing boats and the 5204 ship of the Chinese Coast Guard can be seen in the distance. It can be said that the Philippines' every move in the South China Sea is under close Chinese surveillance.
Neither the tactics of Philippine ships nor the visits of dignitaries can change the reality of the South China Sea. However, under the cover of smoke grenades, two developments are more noteworthy: First, the Philippines decided to purchase five 97-meter-long multipurpose patrol ships from Japan, with a total value of more than $400 million, and Japan agreed to provide the Philippines with a loan for this. It is reported that the five patrol ships will belong to the Philippine Coast Guard. The United States and Japan continue to transfuse blood for Manila, and the competition between China and the Philippine coast guard in the South China Sea will become more intense.
The picture shows the launch vehicle of the US "Typhon" system
Second, as part of the joint U.S.-Philippine exercises, the U.S. Army has deployed the "Typhon" system to launch Tomahawk cruise missiles in the northern part of the Philippine island of Luzon. At a press conference on May 17, spokesman Zhang Xiaogang pointed out that "the deployment of land-based intermediate-range missiles by the United States in the Philippines has seriously undermined China's strategic security, seriously threatened regional national security, and seriously undermined regional peace and stability." This also exposes once again that the United States wants to get involved in the South China Sea. The more tense the situation in the South China Sea, the more opportunities the United States will take advantage of the situation and increase its military deployment around China.
The picture shows Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos
Many analysts believe that the South China Sea has become a "flashpoint" in the Asia-Pacific region. However, no matter how much the Philippines plays tricks, it will not be able to change the status quo in the South China Sea, and the Philippines will not have the courage to go head-to-head with China. Just like the "100 ships forced into Scarborough Shoal" this time, China's strong maritime law enforcement force will not give the Philippines any opportunity.
On the contrary, we should pay more attention to the increasing military deployment of the United States and other countries around China by taking advantage of the escalation of tensions in the South China Sea. We should also make the Philippines understand that the more foreign countries are involved, the more passive the situation facing the Philippines will become.