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Li Zhilin: The 3000-point bottom-buying chip is too heavy, and the 3100-point can only shrink the turtle line

author:Li Zhilin
Li Zhilin: The 3000-point bottom-buying chip is too heavy, and the 3100-point can only shrink the turtle line

The 3000-point bottom-reading chip is too heavy, and the 3100-point can only shrink the turtle line

Today's news:

The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed down overnight, with the Dow down 0.1%, breaking through 40,000 points for the first time in the session, the Nasdaq down 0.26%, and the S&P 500 down 0.21%. Popular technology stocks were mixed, with Intel up more than 2%, Amazon and Meta falling more than 1%. Food & Beverage, Airport & Aviation Services, Other Industrial Metals & Mining led the gains, with Walmart rising 7%, its biggest one-day gain since March 2020. Computer hardware, semiconductors, and real estate development sectors were lower. WSB's popular concept stocks continued to fall, with Game Station falling by more than 30% and AMC Cinemas falling by more than 15%.

[The first IPO after the issuance and listing of the new regulations was suspended Shenzhen Stock Exchange: is the normal situation in the review of the issuance and listing access to the customs] The first IPO after the issuance and listing of the new regulations was suspended, and the relevant person in charge of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange said that this is a normal situation in the review, in terms of the review system and actual implementation, the listing committee's review results of the issuance and listing application, including the review passed, vetoed, and suspended review. According to a relevant person from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the listing committee suspended the review of Marco Polo's listing application, mainly considering the actual situation of the company's operating income and profit during the reporting period, such as a certain decline, and it is necessary to further confirm whether the uncertain factors affecting the performance are eliminated on the existing basis. After learning from the relevant people of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, after the review is suspended, according to the regulations, the company needs to provide supplementary information on the stability of performance, and the Listing Committee will make a review and judgment based on the relevant situation, so as to ensure the entry of the issuance and listing.

[National Bureau of Statistics: In April, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.7% year-on-year] According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in April, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.7% year-on-year. On a month-on-month basis, in April, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.97% over the previous month. From January to April, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3 percent year-on-year.

[National Bureau of Statistics: The next stage of the overall study of the digestion of stock of real estate and the optimization of incremental housing policy measures, pay close attention to the construction of a new model of real estate development] Liu Aihua, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at the press conference of the State Council Information Office on the 17th that since the beginning of this year, various regions have been continuously optimizing real estate policies due to urban policies, and the real estate field continues to be in a period of adjustment from the main data of the real estate field in April. In the next stage, in accordance with the spirit of the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, we should earnestly implement the decision-making and deployment of the Party Central Committee, combine the new changes in the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market and the new expectations of the people for high-quality housing, coordinate the study of policies and measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize the incremental housing, and pay close attention to building a new model of real estate development to promote the high-quality development of real estate.

Li Zhilin: The 3000-point bottom-buying chip is too heavy, and the 3100-point can only shrink the turtle line

[Zhengdan shares share price broke through 28.3 yuan low point has risen nearly 900%] Zhengdan shares rose more than 6%, the stock price exceeded 28.3 yuan, the stock price fell to 2.83 yuan on February 7. It has risen nearly 900% in 56 trading days since February 8, and has risen 540% in 21 trading days since April 9.

As of May 16, the financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 794.532 billion yuan, an increase of 1.216 billion yuan from the previous trading day, the financing balance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 703.431 billion yuan, an increase of 1.424 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and the total of the two cities was 1497.963 billion yuan, an increase of 2.64 billion yuan from the previous trading day.

This morning, the market opened 1 point 3121 points lower, rushed 3131 points, bottomed out 3116 points, and closed at 3118 points before noon. The SSE 50, the STAR Market and the CSI 1000 rose 0.06%, 0.12% and 0.02%, while the CSI 300, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shenzhen Component Index, the ChiNext and the CSI 500 fell 0.20%, 0.10%, 0.27%, 0.19% and 0.16%. The ratio of individual stocks is 2332:2752, and the ratio of price limit is 49:0. The half-day turnover of the two cities was 512.5 billion, a decrease of 6.9 billion from the previous trading day.

Last Thursday and Friday closed at 3,154 points for two consecutive days, and people are expecting to launch an attack on 3,200 points this week.

Helplessly, the market has shrunk. It was only 764 billion on Wednesday, a new low after the Spring Festival. The market broke through 3130 points and retreated to around 3120.

Judging from the news, there are good and bad. The bad thing is that a certain country once again sanctioned the mainland's new energy and other advantageous industries, raising tariffs from 7.5% to 25%, causing greater shocks in related industries; The three major U.S. indexes all hit record highs intraday, Hong Kong stocks continued to rise sharply, close to 20,000 points, the ratio of AH shares was as high as 1:1.6, and the dividend rate was also higher than that of A shares, so a large number of foreign and domestic capital turned to Hong Kong stocks, and the southbound funds reached 5.5 billion this morning, causing blood loss in A shares; The IPO and refinancing resumed after a three-month hiatus. The good news is that the property market in various places has lifted the purchase restrictions, coordinated the digestion of the stock to optimize the increment, and the trade-in of the old for the new has been effective; In April, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.7%, the retail sales of social consumption increased by 2.3%, and the online retail sales increased by 11.5%.

However, the market is still shrinking for 5 consecutive days, in addition to the above reasons, I think it is related to the 44-day closing above 3000 points, and the bottom chips are as much as 35-40 trillion. Such a huge army of bottom-pickers, plus the huge amount of money left by the failure of bottom-buying at 3144 and 3164 points last year. Therefore, every step forward above 3100 points will be subject to the double pressure of profit-taking and unhedging, especially the leading individual stocks, which have become the object of sell-off, so that the individual stock market can only last for a day or two before it dies down.

However, the most vibrant mainstream hot new quality productivity concept stocks in the market have not been able to stop falling and rebound to lead the market. The rotation of real estate and brokerage stocks has not had a positive effect on the broader market, but has been sold by other stocks. can only rely on the national team's four major bank stocks and four major ETFs, as well as the six major weighted stocks, to take turns to pull the platform to support, but its willingness to pull up is also insufficient. As a result, there is a lack of market confidence, and the momentum of the gap after the May Day holiday is increasingly eroding.

In view of this, people need to be prepared to hold on to the 3100 points as the 44-day oscillation above the 3000 points, and it seems that there will be a protracted battle. However, there are still many opportunities for individual stocks to buy low and sell high and T+0, and the pattern of high dividend rate stocks, theme stocks and new quality productivity concept stocks is still established.

Li Zhilin: The 3000-point bottom-buying chip is too heavy, and the 3100-point can only shrink the turtle line

When the stock price of the four major banks falls to a dividend rate of more than 5.5%, as long as the stock is held for one month, the dividend tax only needs to be paid 10%, so that after more than one month, you can get a dividend return of more than 5%, which is equivalent to the annual interest rate of the bank for 3 years. Such a return is also a good choice for prudent investors.

Afternoon attention: Can the market close above 3120 points below? Can the upper side close above the 5 antenna 3130 points? Can the four major ETFs of the national team turn from falling to rising? 2332:2752 stocks, can the situation of falling more and rising less? On the basis of yesterday's net inflow of 6.1 billion, can the northbound funds continue to have a net inflow today? Can the trading volume be above 800 billion?

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