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Li Zhilin-Advice: Suppress the heavy stocks and wash the market strongly, and the market bottomed out and consolidated 3150 points

author:Li Zhilin
Li Zhilin-Advice: Suppress the heavy stocks and wash the market strongly, and the market bottomed out and consolidated 3150 points

The heavyweight stocks were strongly shuffled, and the market bottomed out and consolidated 3,150 points

Today's news:

[The Dow Jones recorded eight consecutive rises on the daily line, and the three major U.S. stock indexes all rose for at least three consecutive weeks] The three major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed on Friday night, with the Dow up 0.32%, and the daily line recorded eight consecutive gains, up 2.16% for the week; The S&P 500 rose 0.16%, up 1.85% for the week; The Nasdaq fell 0.03% and rose 1.14% for the week. Among them, the Dow rose for 4 consecutive weeks, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both rose for 3 consecutive weeks.

[Top 10 brokerage strategies: foreign capital is expected to continue net inflow! Dividends are still the first choice for the bottom position] CITIC Securities: The macro policy environment continues to improve, many positive factors are accumulating, all kinds of funds rush to promote the comprehensive repair of China's assets in the near future, optimism is in the bud, the market has returned to normal, it is recommended to dilute the game, and focus on the three main lines of performance growth, low-volatility dividends and active themes.

A few days ago, the new energy vehicle brand Zeekr Auto officially landed on the New York Stock Exchange, with a price of $21 per ADS and a target valuation of $5.13 billion. As of the close of the day, the total market value of ZEEKR was 6.898 billion US dollars (about 49.85 billion yuan). The Securities Times reporter noticed that in 2024, the listing of Chinese-funded enterprises in the United States has increased compared with before, especially under the increase in the threshold of A-share IPOs and the slowdown in the pace, many enterprises and capital have re-invested in overseas IPO markets such as US stocks and Hong Kong stocks.

[Hong Kong Stock Connect dividend tax stirs up the market, can it take over the baton for ten consecutive rises? ] Last Friday, it was reported on the Internet that the 20% dividend tax on Hong Kong Stock Connect for mainland individual investors may be reduced, and investors' risk appetite for the Hong Kong stock market, especially the related high-dividend sectors, has increased significantly, driving a number of dividend-related ETFs in Hong Kong stocks to rise sharply. As of the close of the market on May 10, the Hang Seng Index, the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index have risen by 14.64%, 13.94% and 16.28% respectively since April.

[The power of the new rules is revealed! 8 IPO companies cancelled their orders, clearance dividends, and financial indicators did not match] According to the statistics of brokerage China reporters, a total of 7 IPO companies withdrew their materials in the first week after the introduction of the new regulations (May 6 to May 11), and if you add 1 exchange overtime during the Labor Day holiday on May 2, 8 have been terminated since May.

[Central Bank: Broad money (M2) increased by 7.2% year-on-year at the end of April, and narrow money (M1) fell by 1.4% year-on-year] The central bank released data that at the end of April, the balance of broad money (M2) was 301.19 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 66.01 trillion yuan, down 1.4% year-on-year. The balance of money in circulation (M0) was 11.73 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%. In the first four months, the net cash injection was 386.6 billion yuan.

[National Bureau of Statistics: CPI rose 0.3% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month in April] According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in April, the national consumer price rose by 0.3% year-on-year. In April, the PPI fell by 2.5% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points narrower than the previous month.

Today, the northbound fund disclosure mechanism will be adjusted, and data such as real-time turnover will be cancelled. A brokerage firm said today that the northbound fund-related sectors in the APP will be cancelled. Specifically, the "Northbound Net Buying" sector and the "Stock Connect" sector will have no data on the old version of the APP, and will be cancelled on the new version of the APP. (Securities Times)

According to incomplete statistics, as of press time, so far in May (5.1-5.12), 12 A-share listed companies have announced that the company or related parties have been investigated by the CSRC. Among them, the chairman of Tianyu Digital Technology and the deputy general manager of Jinjia Co., Ltd. were both retained by the Supervision Commission, and 7 listed companies, including Dongxu Blue Sky, Dongxu Optoelectronics, ST Huatie, Weichuang Co., Ltd., *ST Yuebo, Puli Pharmaceutical, and *ST Sansheng, were all filed for failing to disclose their annual reports in a timely manner. In terms of the performance of the secondary market, the day after the announcement, ST Cultural Investment and Caesar Culture fell to the limit.

As of May 10, the financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 790.829 billion yuan, a decrease of 469 million yuan from the previous trading day, the financing balance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 702.683 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.102 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and the total of the two cities was 1.493512 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.571 billion yuan from the previous trading day.

This morning, the market opened 15 points 3138 points lower, bottomed out 3126 points, rushed 3153 points, and closed 3151 points before noon. SSE 50, CSI 300, SSE Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext, STAR Market, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 fell 0.11%, 0.02%, 0.08%, 0.37%, 0.67%, 0.39%, 0.33% and 0.54%. The ratio of individual stocks is 1320:3926, and the ratio of price limit is 33:13. The half-day turnover of the two cities was 569.4 billion, a decrease of 11.2 billion from the previous trading day.

News over the weekend said that IPO and refinancing reviews will resume this Thursday, May 16. This is somewhat negative for market supply and demand.

This morning, institutions are using this information, the market opened low and killed, and the four major ETFs of the national team, the four major bank stocks, and the six major weighted stocks fell sharply. At 9:45, the market was suppressed to 3126 points. Since the northbound capital will no longer disclose trading information in real time from now on, it is estimated that it will also be a pressure to kill. Then the market slowly pushed up, recovering 3150 points before noon, but individual stocks fell more and rose less than 1:3.

Although the market has four consecutive weekly gains, it only rose 1.6% in the first week after the May Day holiday, far behind the 7.4% weekly increase in Hong Kong stocks and the seven consecutive gains in U.S. stocks.

The main reason is that the market has cut into the 3150 point position and entered the pressure zone of profit-taking and unhedging. Below is the bottom of 3144 points on June 26 last year, that is, the position where Lao Hu announced the bottom of the quilt in a high-profile manner. There is a bottom-buying army at the starting point of 3164 points at the beginning of last year's 7.24 important meeting. Therefore, it takes time to digest the profit order and unhedge the order.

Second, the market has closed above 3,000 points in 44 days since February 23. And it only closed 8 days above 3100 points, 5 days above 3130 points, and 3 days above 3150 points, and the turnover was far from enough.

The third is that the 3000-point position is not as easy to rise as the V-shaped bottom, but the bottom-buying army that has accumulated about 40 trillion trading volume in 44 days, so every step forward will be sold by profit-taking orders.

Fourth, with the rise of the index, the four major ETFs and the four major bank stocks of the national team have been in a state of abundant profitability and are no longer working hard. Since the beginning of this year, the northbound funds with a net inflow of more than 80 billion have also begun to sell high and buy low in shocks, instead of buying all the way. The whole market has been bought, pulling up the lack of funds. Therefore, only time can be exchanged for space.

This morning, the hot spots were lackluster, with gas, utilities, electricity, ports, power grids, automobiles and other sectors rising, while the chemical, biopharmaceutical, real estate, brokerage, banking, insurance, coal and other sectors that led the rise in the early stage performed poorly. As a result, 11 indices fell across the board, with the CSI 2000 and the BSE 50 falling the most. Due to the abnormal annual report of 215 shares, there are constantly individual stocks wearing ST hats or filing investigations, and there are still 52 ST shares with a down limit, and the number of stocks with a down limit has increased slightly.

Li Zhilin-Advice: Suppress the heavy stocks and wash the market strongly, and the market bottomed out and consolidated 3150 points

The market seems to be stuck in a correction at the 3150-3130 level. But I think that the market is still going up in the shock, after all, all the moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, 5 days, 10 days, 20 days, 30 days on the antenna through the annual line, 60 antennas through the semi-annual line, the semi-annual line is also upward.

After the annual report and the first quarterly report are announced, I believe that only when the new quality productivity concept stocks take over the baton, the market will have a more obvious money-making effect, and the market can go up. Judging from the morning market, the mid-cap stocks of new productivity, especially the social security fund, pension fund, national team, insurance funds, foreign capital into the top 10 shareholders, and high-growth stocks with a price-earnings ratio of more than ten times, rose against the trend. If there is a diffusion effect, it will give a certain boost to the market.

Afternoon attention: Can the market close above 3130 points below? Can the upper side close above 3150? Can the eight varieties of the national team protect the disc be stronger? 1320:3926 The disparity between individual stocks falling more and rising less can the situation be improved? Can the trading volume be more than 900 billion?

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