■China Economic Times reporter Zhao Shan
On May 16, the fourth phase of the joint research results conference between the Development Research Center of the State Council and Shell Group was held at the Development Research Center of the State Council. Zhang Shunxi, Deputy Director of the Development Research Center of the State Council and member of the Party Leadership Group, and Qu Xuemei, Executive Vice President of Shell Group and Chairman of Shell China Group, attended the press conference and delivered speeches. The press conference was presided over by Tian Jietang, director of the Industrial Economy Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council. Xu Zhaoyuan, Deputy Director of the Industrial Economy Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, introduced the main results of the fourth phase of the cooperative research on behalf of the Chinese team of the research group. Gao Shiji, Director and Researcher of the Institute of Resources and Environmental Policy of the Development Research Center of the State Council, Wang Jinzhao, Executive Deputy Director and Researcher of the China Center for International Knowledge on Development, and Li Weiyang, Vice President of the State Grid Energy Research Institute, respectively commented on the results of the fourth phase of the cooperative research.
Actively responding to climate change and achieving green development are common challenges for the whole world, and promoting high-quality development and economic growth is an important support for China to build China into a great modern socialist country in all respects and achieve the second centenary goal. To achieve high-quality and green development, it is necessary to promote China's energy revolution and transformation, reshape the current energy system dominated by fossil fuels, and gradually shift to a new energy system. Since 2011, the Development Research Center of the State Council and Shell have carried out a series of strategic cooperation studies on energy issues, and "Facing the Future for Growth: Building China's New Energy System" is the result of the fourth phase of the joint research between the two parties, which comprehensively analyzes the future blueprint of China's energy development, and puts forward the vision and policy recommendations for a new energy system for 2060.
In his speech, Zhang Shunxi said that the Development Research Center of the State Council, as a public institution directly under the State Council specializing in comprehensive policy research and decision-making consultation, has always regarded strengthening international cooperation in policy research in the energy field as an important responsibility. As far as the global challenge of promoting the energy revolution and promoting green and low-carbon transformation is concerned, the fourth phase of the joint research between the Development Research Center of the State Council and Shell is only a phased achievement, and there are many topics that need to be studied more deeply and systematically. Now that the two sides have officially launched the fifth phase of cooperative research, it is hoped that the research team will further strengthen exchanges and cooperation with relevant research institutions and experts at home and abroad, form more high-quality research results, and make new and greater contributions to effectively coping with the difficulties and challenges in the energy revolution and green and low-carbon transformation.
In her speech, Qu Xuemei said that the development research center of the State Council and Shell have gone through 13 years of joint research on energy issues, and this cooperation perfectly integrates the deep understanding of the development research center of the State Council on China's energy system and the challenges facing energy development, as well as Shell's international experience and knowledge in energy market regulation mechanisms and energy demand drivers, and sets an international flag for cooperation between the Chinese government and the business community.
On behalf of the Chinese team of the research group, Zhaoyuan Xu introduced the following main results of the fourth phase of the cooperative research.
This study points out that China's new energy era is coming. By the end of 2023, China's cumulative installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power will reach 1.05 billion kilowatts, accounting for 40% of the world's total installed capacity of new energy. The development of new energy is still accelerating, and the use of terminal energy will be converted from traditional fossil energy to electricity, and by 2060, the electrification rate will increase from about 26% in 2023 to about 60%. New energy generation will become the main source of electricity, and the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power will increase exponentially, and is expected to reach 3.2 billion kilowatts and 3.5 billion kilowatts respectively by 2060, 11.3 times and 13.8 times that of 2020. Non-electric energy will mainly rely on hydrogen energy and biofuels, and it is expected that by 2060, China's total hydrogen energy demand will be between 80 million tons and 120 million tons, and the supply of hydrogen energy will gradually shift from fossil energy to renewable energy electrolysis to hydrogen production, and bioliquid fuel substitution is expected to continue to grow, and by 2060, the total supply of biofuel ethanol, biodiesel and biojet fuel will exceed 100 million tons of standard coal.
This study argues that "security" is the bottom line to build China's new energy system, and "innovation" can create a better future. In the process of building a new power system, controllable power supply is always the "ballast stone" of safety. On the basis of sufficient utilization of regulating resources such as pumped storage, grid mutual aid, demand response, electric vehicles, and electrochemical energy storage, it is still necessary to retain and rationally deploy a certain scale of thermal power until 2060, mainly to provide power and regulation capacity. To solve the security risks caused by the imbalance between the distribution of new energy resources and the load center, it is necessary to continue to strengthen the construction of power grid infrastructure and accelerate the construction of a flexible interconnection architecture of "large power grid + small and medium-sized regional power grid + smart distribution network and microgrid". However, from a fundamental point of view, greater efforts to promote the maturity and breakthrough of new energy technology is the foundation of ensuring safety. According to the importance of the technology and its stage of development, the R&D and application of technologies related to zero-carbon power systems should be focused on before 2030. Hydrogen energy technology, biofuels, and CCS technology can be commercialized around 2035; Around 2050, new nuclear power technologies such as controlled nuclear fusion and other conceptual technologies will strive to come in handy; Before 2060, carbon dioxide CCU recycling technology and unknown major technologies will be promoted and applied.
This study finds that new energy will continue to be an important engine of China's new economy if the development path is well planned. In the 40 years from 2020 to 2060, the total investment demand for low-carbon power systems, hydrogen and biomass systems, CCUS, and supporting infrastructure in the industrial sector will exceed 80 trillion yuan. Considering the investment and consumption demand in the fields of electric vehicles, industrial decarbonization, energy-efficient buildings, and the impact of increased competitiveness due to technological change, low-carbon will play a significant role in driving economic growth, and only the energy and power construction and equipment manufacturing industries can contribute more than 5% of GDP added value. In addition, although the energy transition will also cause the loss of jobs in traditional power industries such as coal power, on the whole, the number of jobs in the entire wind and solar industry chain will increase significantly, and the total number of jobs in the power system will still show a net increase.
The construction of a new energy system will also face a series of challenges, such as the difficulty of stable operation of the energy system, the possible increase of energy costs, and the difficulty of employment and asset transformation in a large number of traditional energy industries. This study suggests that the development of new energy needs to build a policy system of "one first, three strategies, and five dimensions of support". In accordance with the overall idea of "long-term vision, medium- and long-term strategy, and short-term planning", we should always attach importance to planning first, put forward "conceptual drawings, design drawings, and construction drawings", and promote energy transformation and new energy development in a solid and orderly manner; It has always adhered to the three major strategies of giving priority to energy conservation and recycling, promoting electric energy substitution and energy decarbonization, attaching great importance to technological innovation, making good use of electricity prices and carbon prices, moderately advancing infrastructure investment and construction, doing a good job in regional coordination and international energy cooperation, and improving laws and regulations.
Chief Producer丨Wang Hui and Che Haigang
Producer丨Li Piguang, Wang Yu, Liu Weimin
Editor-in-Chief丨Mao Jinghui Editor丨Gu Yun