After the 19-day "shoulder-to-shoulder" joint military exercise between the United States, the Philippines and Australia, the Philippines has placed its next key provocation target against China on Scarborough Shoal. Philippine media revealed that at present, more than 200 "fishermen" from the Philippines, driving more than 100 boats, are heading towards the waters of Scarborough Shoal. Do? Another provocation against China, of course, and the expansion of the situation. It was observed that these more than 200 "fishermen" belonged to the same Philippine "non-governmental organization" and also had a US background, and it was obvious that they did not really come to "fish" but to make trouble.
In this regard, the Chinese coast guard has stepped up its protection efforts at Scarborough Shoal, but it is still difficult to determine what the final outcome will be if the two sides engage on a large scale, especially in the context of the Philippine side's "preparedness". If an extreme situation occurs, the possibility of a "showdown" between China and the Philippines over Scarborough Shoal even exists, because China cannot allow the Philippines to forcibly occupy Scarborough Shoal, which is only more than 200 kilometers away from the Philippine mainland, and the Philippines is very keen to "unplug" it.
In the case of the possible "escalation" of the situation between China and the Philippines, Tuazon, director of the "People's Good Governance" Center of the Philippine think tank, recently came forward to remind the Filipino people, saying that "our country is being betrayed by the president, and if the Philippines loses the war, the United States will be happy."
Tuazon also believes that there are three main reasons for the escalation of tensions between China and the Philippines. First, Marcos is a hardcore ally of the United States, and he wants to use the U.S.-Philippines Defense Treaty against China. Second, the military has a great say in Philippine politics, but they are actually tools of the United States, the "proxy army" of the United States, and even the president has to contribute funds to support its ties with the US military; Third, Marcos was tempted by the United States to donate old ships and old warships, which were sent as "gifts" to the Philippine Navy and Coast Guard.
So, is it really as Tuazon says? We might as well take a look at each of these three with the help of these three.
The first, Marcos' desire to use the US-Philippine alliance against China, has already been proven. In just two months after Marcos took office, he opened four more military bases to the United States, three close to the Taiwan Strait and one near the South China Sea, which not only directly pulled the United States, a foreign country, into the South China Sea, but also made it clear who this move was aimed at, because both the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea are regarded as "core interests" by China, and the Philippines pulled the United States to cause chaos around China, of course, in order to use the power of the United States to force China to bow its head in the South China Sea and get more benefits.
Therefore, the first point that Tuazon said, there is no problem. In fact, in addition to opening bases, the Philippines and the United States have also held joint patrols, held large-scale multinational joint military exercises, and even allowed the United States to deploy medium-range missiles on Philippine territory with a range of 1,700 kilometers when Japan, South Korea, and Australia did not dare to agree, completely covering the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and China's southeast coast. In this way, Tuazon's claim that Marcos betrayed the country was completely confirmed, and former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte even said that the Philippines has now become a "launcher" for the United States.
Second, the Philippines is a country divided between military and political affairs, and although the president is the supreme commander of the Philippine armed forces, this is just a symbol, and it is the secretary of defense and the chief of general staff of the Philippine armed forces who really lead the Philippine army. Because the Philippines has been an Asia-Pacific ally of the United States since World War II, the relationship between the Philippine military and the United States is very close, and no matter which president comes to power, he cannot really change all this, but guide it according to his own policies.
Under Duterte, he chose to maintain a balance between China and the United States, "shelving disputes" with China in the South China Sea and increasing cooperation in other areas. Because the Philippines is an ally of the United States and the military has a special relationship with the United States, Duterte has not visited the United States once during his six years in office, but he has visited China many times. Regarding the US military exercises in the South China Sea, Duterte clearly ordered the Philippine military leadership not to participate in it once.
It is precisely because of this that during the Duterte period, the Philippines benefited from both sides between China and the United States, because his support rate was super high, and the Philippine military did not dare to be too presumptuous in front of Duterte. However, after Marcos came to power, he turned headlong to the United States, and the Philippine military was originally an "agent" of the United States, and both sides naturally became "pawns" of the United States. After that, Marcos ordered the Philippine Coast Guard to come forward and began to continuously provoke China, and now it is constantly pushing the situation higher.
Third, the Philippines is a small country, with a low GDP and no industrial production capacity, so the equipment used by the Philippine army mostly relies on allies to "help". When US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kritengbrink visited the Philippines last year, the "gifts" included two "Island"-class patrol ships, two "Protector"-class patrol ships, and three C-130H military transport planes. Over the years, the United States has basically never stopped donating weapons to the Philippines. First, the two sides are allies and have this obligation; Second, the Philippines is China's neighbor, and the United States wants to pile up weapons here.
In recent years, not only the United States, but also Japan, the most important non-NATO ally of the United States, has been continuously donating military supplies such as patrol ships, military aircraft, and long-range surveillance radars to the Philippines. Moreover, the United States and Japan have recently signed a new defense agreement with the Philippines, which has emboldened Marcos.
Recently, the current Philippine administration led by Marcos has made several particularly eye-catching moves. First, it was agreed that the US military would deploy medium-range missiles on the island of Luzon in the northern Philippines; Second, the "BrahMos" cruise missiles that the Philippines imported from India are deployed on the west side of Luzon Island, which is directly opposite Scarborough Shoal, and the "BrahMos" has a range of 290 kilometers, but it is only 220 kilometers away from Scarborough Shoal, which is completely sufficient. Third, in the US-Philippine-Australia joint exercise, the Philippine side not only practiced a "beach-grabbing landing" against the backdrop of Scarborough Shoal, but also used a Chinese-made ship as a "target vessel" and conducted a sinking drill to show its attitude. Fourth, 200 people and 100 boats are currently gathering on Scarborough Shoal.
So, what would happen if the Philippines provoked a conflict in the South China Sea? At the same time, China and the Philippines had a large-scale confrontation at Scarborough Shoal, and the Philippine side thought that the United States would stand up for itself, but the American aircraft carrier battle group still chose to withdraw from the area after feeling the "anger" of the Chinese side. Now, China's military strength has increased dramatically, and if the United States intervenes, the consequences will be even more serious and the cost will be greater. In fact, Duterte has made it clear that "in the South China Sea, can the Philippines beat China?" Before our plane took off, Chinese missiles were already coming."
This is a very sensible view, Marcos now knows that he cannot confront China, but still chooses to escalate the provocation, it cannot be ruled out that it is the United States instructed, because the United States does not care whether the Philippines loses the war at all, just like Ukraine today, as long as the Philippines and China "get on fire", the United States has a lot of ways to manipulate behind the back, so that China can not get out, just like Russia today, its national strength is constantly consumed. Against this backdrop, China must resolutely safeguard its sovereignty on the one hand, and on the other hand, it must not easily fall into the "trap" dug by the United States.