When the revenue of the two companies AB is about the same, and the profit difference is relatively large, some people choose A, the reason is that the net profit is so strong, the cost control is good, and the stock price is a little higher, so it is more reassuring to choose A, and some people choose B, the reason is that the revenue is about the same, the cost control is so bad, the net profit margin is not good, the market value has long reflected this difference, and the odds of choosing B are higher, which is the different conclusions drawn by different investors according to the same statement.
Basic data analysis
Dayuan Pump Industry, with a total share capital of 167 million shares, the data of the past 7 years are as follows: dividends of about 732 million yuan, earnings per share of 1.71 yuan, annual net cash flow of 760 million yuan, annual net operating cash flow of 1.731 billion yuan, capital of about 970 million yuan, the current stock price of about 22 yuan, dividend yield of 5.4%.
In 2023, the operating income will be 1.879 billion yuan, the growth rate in the past three years will be 27%, the gross profit margin will be around 30%, the net profit margin will be about 15%, and the annual net profit will be 280 million yuan, which is double that of 2021, but the proportion of the three fees has increased significantly, and the net cash flow has increased significantly.
As of the end of 2023, the assets will be 2.6 billion yuan, the net assets will be 1.7 billion yuan, the interest-bearing liabilities will be mainly convertible bonds of 400 million yuan, and the cash-like liabilities will be 960 million yuan, mainly bank deposits, and the proportion of inventory and receivables is relatively reasonable.
In the first quarter of 2024, the company's operating income and net profit fell sharply, resulting in a pessimistic valuation of Dayuan.
In the first quarter of 2024, the company's revenue has indeed declined a lot, but it is still a little higher than in 2022, and the gross profit margin has increased significantly.
What we need to pay attention to is the operating turnover rate, inventory turnover rate and other indicators, whether these indicators continue to deteriorate, we have to observe the trend of several quarters to know, now it seems that it is indeed developing in the direction of deterioration, this should be paid attention to.
Some of the above indicators are some of the indicators that we often pay attention to, the price-to-book ratio is currently 2.13, the price-earnings ratio is 13 times, last year's ROE was 16%, and the asset-liability ratio was 36%.
Company fundamental analysis
The first feeling I have with the pump is that this thing is stupid and coarse, and many manufacturers are fiercely competitive, and it is very difficult to make money, but after the study of financial reports, I found that the gross profit margin and net profit margin are not low, and the gap between pumps and pumps is also huge, and the gross profit margin of Lingxiao Pump Industry and Dayuan Pump Industry in 2023 are as follows:
Lingxiao Pump, with a comprehensive gross profit margin of 37.9%, and Dayuan Pump, with a comprehensive gross profit margin of 32.2%. It can be said that it is a more comfortable gross profit range in investment, and it is worth learning why it does not match the traditional impression.
The above picture is the data of the 2023 Dayuan Pump Industry Annual Report, from the perspective of the gross profit margin of the main business, the submersible pumps we often see in the civil sector are really the lowest in gross profit margin, and the gross profit margin of the chemical, air conditioning, and hot water that we don't often see is okay.
The company's products can be divided into canned pumps and water pumps according to their uses, the revenue has increased by 393 million yuan in the past three years, the canned pump has increased by 413 million yuan, and the water pump has achieved negative growth, this is our conventional understanding, the competition is fierce, the pump with many manufacturers is really not profitable, the password to make money is on the canned pump, the revenue of the canned pump in 2021 will be 695 million yuan, and the growth rate in 3 years will be 59%, this business looks very good, so for the research of Dayuan, the pump will ignore it, It's okay to stabilize the fundamentals, and don't expect too much growth.
For canned pumps, it is divided into household, industrial and liquid cooling, industrial is chemical canned pump, household is this hot water circulation canned pump, liquid cooling is this air conditioning refrigeration canned pump. Among them, the chemical industry has the fastest growth rate and the highest proportion of household use.
For the highest proportion of household hot water circulating pumps, the company has grown a lot in two years, for the prospects of this type of products, the company is still more confident, and domestic and foreign double flowering, the domestic is the increase in the south of the heating wall-hung boiler, foreign is the subsidy of air source heat pumps, etc., in a word, the growth is still promising, and there is room for rapid growth.
For the fastest growing industrial canned pump, it has doubled in two years, and the growth is rapid, but it accounts for a relatively small amount, currently 200 million yuan.
The company is still relatively arrogant, domestic substitution and technological progress is the cornerstone of the company's development, which is not bad, the market demand for the mainland canned pump is huge, this huge description is in place, this is the company's development prospects to draw the pie, and strive to increase market share, strive to open up new markets, and strive to domestic substitution.
Liquid-cooled pumps are also a vast sea in the future, and this can also be touched with the concept of new energy, but at present, it is still too early, it can only be regarded as a direction, and the growth is so-so.
To sum up, from the above 3 points, the future of the sea of stars of the canned pump can still be expected, domestic substitution, new scenarios, product updates These are 3 aspects, qualitatively speaking, remote can be expected.
Company valuation
The institution's performance expectation for the company in 2024 is 300 million yuan, and it is willing to gamble and lose, and it is given a position of X%, which is listed as the object of observation and learning.
The above analysis does not involve management, shareholding structure, detailed financial statements, etc., and it is inevitable that there will be loopholes.