On May 12, local time, Putin made an unexpected decision: to nominate economist Andrei Belousov as Russia's new defense minister, and Shoigu was "promoted" to the secretary of the Russian Federal Security Council.
According to a report by Xinhua News Agency, information released on the website of the Russian President on the 12th shows that Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a presidential decree to nominate former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu as secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation. At the same time, Nikolai Patrushev was removed from the post of secretary of the Security Council (with another appointment).
In addition, in this presidential decree of Putin, former Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, former head of the Foreign Intelligence Service Naryshkin, former Minister of Emergency Situations Kulenkov and others were nominated for "re-election".
And the choice of Russian defense minister, which people are most concerned about, has surprised many people. Because Beluusov, who was nominated by Putin, is not only a civilian official with no military experience, but also an economist.
According to Russia's "new constitution" adopted in 2020, the Russian Federation Council (the upper house of parliament) has seven working days to consider the nominations of these government officials signed by the president, and if there is no objection, Putin will officially sign the "letter of appointment". However, judging from the current political ecology of Russia, as long as Putin is nominated, it is basically a foregone conclusion.
First, Shoigu's new post is "more powerful", not "openly rising and falling"
Shoigu's upcoming body, the Security Council of the Russian Federation, is a "state-level" department and the highest advisory body for strategic decision-making in the Russian Federation. In this body, Putin is the chairman, and former President Dmitry Medvedev is the only deputy chairman, which shows the "high rank" of the body.
Shoigu, to the post of "secretary", is the "de facto head" of the Security Council of the Russian Federation. More importantly, this "position" also "represents President Putin" in commanding the Russian Federal Security Service, the Foreign Intelligence Service, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Kremlin Guards and other powerful departments. To put it bluntly, Shoigu has become a proper "real power", not a "bright rise and dark fall" as stated in the field of public opinion.
Second, who is Belousov?
Andrei Belousov, who was nominated by Putin as the new Minister of Defense, was born in 1959 and graduated from the Faculty of Economics of Lomonosov Moscow State University. After graduating, Belousov worked for a long time in the Soviet Union and the Central Economic Research Institute of Russia, where he specialized in the theory of "control economics" and served as a "supernumerary economic adviser" to the Russian prime minister.
Belousov served as Deputy Minister of Economic Development of Russia in 2006, Director of the Department of Finance and Economy of the Russian Government in 2008, and Assistant to the President of Russia from 2013 to 2020, becoming Putin's "economic adviser", thus gaining Putin's full trust, and as a result, he was appointed as the First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Government in January 2020, thus becoming the "practical operator" of the Russian economy.
In fact, Belousov can be regarded as a "famous family", not from a "civilian home". Because, his father, Rem Belousov, was the founder of "value management" in Russia. More importantly, his father, Rem Belousov, also served as an "economic adviser" to Khrushchev and Brezhnev.
Third, Belousov's appointment as Minister of Defense was "born at the right time"
As for why Putin appointed economic expert Belousov as defense minister, Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov gave a "reason".
Peskov believes that this "arrangement" is justified. Because, Russia is currently approaching the situation in the USSR in the mid-80s of the last century, when the expenses of the military and law enforcement authorities in the USSR amounted to 7.4% of state expenditures (in fact, it could be higher).
Peskov also explained that in today's world, "whoever is more open to innovation will be able to win on the battlefield." And in the current wartime state, it is "critical" to ensure that defense spending is in the overall national interest. So, Putin wants a civilian official with an economic background to be the defense minister.
Actually, what Peskov wants to say is: the war is fought for "money", "innovation", and comprehensive strength. Therefore, it is necessary to find a person who understands economics and is full of the innovative spirit of the times to concretely "coordinate" this war. Obviously, Putin believes that Belousov is the ideal person to meet the "conditions".
Fourth, this "appointment" also reflects the changing "philosophy" of Putin
Regarding the appointment of economic expert Belousov as Russia's defense minister, Ukrainian economist Alexei Kushi commented that it seems to indicate that "everything is moving in the direction of a sharp increase in the activity of the Russian military-industrial complex and the growth of Russian military-industrial production."
In his explanation, Peskov also made a point of emphasizing that Gerasimov would still serve as the chief of the General Staff of the Russian army, and hinted that command and coordination are "two lines". The implication seems to be that the defense minister will focus on the military-industrial system and the logistics of troops in wartime, rather than "directing" the war.
And in the more than two years of the war, Shoigu actually led the war "in every detail". But the "record" is not ideal. Perhaps it is based on this that the "lesson" has made Putin change his perception and concept of war and the "duties" of the defense minister.
Fifth, the "wartime economy" may also be a "double-edged sword"
To put it bluntly, Putin's appointment of an economic official as defense minister during the war is tantamount to indirectly announcing that Russia has entered the "wartime economy" mode. That is, all the work will be in the service of the "war".
Explaining the appointment of Belousov, press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, mentioned that in the mid-eighties of the last century, the Soviet Union's military spending amounted to 7.4 percent of "state spending". It is clearly a hint: Russia should avoid following the "old path" of the Soviet Union.
The mid-eighties of the last century, which Peskov mentioned, was a period of "dilemma" for the Soviet Union in the war in Afghanistan, because the attrition of the war had overwhelmed the Soviet Union, and the economy had shown a "cliff-like" decline, but for political reasons it had to "grit its teeth and persevere". As a result, a year after the withdrawal, the Soviet Union collapsed.
Putin clearly wants to avoid repeating the mistakes of the Soviet Union. It means striving to "fight more and stronger", and not let "war attrition" ruin Russia. However, with the comprehensive sanctions and technological restrictions imposed by the United States and the West, can Putin make Russia's "wartime economy" fire through the appointment of Belousov? Can its economic growth offset the increasing attrition of the war?
To put it bluntly, if Putin can make the "wartime economy" successful, he will naturally be able to support this Russian-Ukrainian war in which the United States and the West are deeply involved, otherwise, Russia may be "dragged down" by this war.