The issue of China's Taiwan Strait is the last strategic node in China's current process of countering hegemony in the world, and as the confrontation between major powers reaches a critical point, the possibility of a direct military conflict in the Taiwan Strait region is also increasing.
【Taiwan Strait Conflict Wargame Deduction】
Many experts on international issues believe that once a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, as many as nine countries may be involved, and a war in the Taiwan Strait is more likely to become the fuse of the third world war than the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
Complex issues in the Taiwan Strait
Originally, China's Taiwan Strait issue was China's internal affair and an internal affair of Chinese compatriots on both sides of the strait, but in the current context of the great power game, the nature of China's Taiwan Strait issue has undergone tremendous changes.
For China, the Taiwan Strait issue is the last bullet that will completely defeat the US global hegemonic system.
[Winning the award on the Taiwan issue has completely collapsed US hegemonism]
At present, the United States has been trapped in the Middle East and Europe, and it is only a matter of time before the regional hegemonic system collapses.
The Palestinian-Israeli issue has now become an ethnic conflict between the Arab world and the Jews, and the United States is forced to stand on the opposite side of the Arab countries, and its influence in the Middle East will become weaker and weaker.
And China will fill the power gap that has arisen since the United States withdrew from the Middle East, and the US Middle East strategy has actually failed.
[U.S. Withdrawal]
The situation in Europe is also not in favor of the United States, and the inability of Ukraine to win on the battlefield means the constant attrition of Europe, but for Europe it is not their will to shed blood for American hegemony.
As a matter of fact, the anti-hegemony and multipolar world efforts represented by China and Russia are in line with Europe's long-term interests, and Europe needs to shake off the control of the United States and strive for real development.
Europe has the potential to become a world pole, but getting rid of US hegemony is a prerequisite, and in such a situation, it is self-evident which side Europe will fall.
[Europe has been stuck with the United States a lot, and it is time to think about getting rid of American hegemony]
Therefore, for China, after defeating the hegemony of the United States in Europe and the Middle East, the last thing left is the Asia-Pacific region, and for the United States, the situation in the Middle East and Europe is too complicated, and focusing on the Asia-Pacific region is the only way.
The United States cannot solve the problems that arise in the hegemonic system, but it can solve the countries that raise them, which leads to the increasing possibility of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait in China, and may even evolve into a world war in the future.
Both China and the United States are stepping up the deployment of naval and air forces in the Asia-Pacific region in order to gain the initiative in the subsequent war, and it can be said that the outbreak of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait is not an impossible issue, but a matter of time.
【Asia-Pacific U.S. Forces】
The final outcome of this war will determine not only the future pattern of the Asia-Pacific region, but also the future pattern of the world.
The impact of the war is so great that it will naturally involve many countries, and in addition to China and the United States, many Asia-Pacific countries and even non-Asia-Pacific countries will participate in it, and the performance and stance of these countries in the war will directly determine the post-war international status.
Because China and the United States are too large, the option of remaining neutral and watching from the sidelines in the past will not exist, and China's Taiwan Strait region will become a major melee between multiple forces.
【Asia-Pacific U.S. Forces】
The position of the countries participating in the war
In addition to China and the United States, which other countries will intervene in the conflict in the Taiwan Strait?
As the most important military ally of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan will certainly not be able to escape, and although Japan will enter the war as an ally of the United States, Japan's attitude towards participating in the war is likely to be very ambiguous.
Japan is cannon fodder in the context of the confrontation between China and the United States, and as an East Asian country, Japan can not intersect with the United States, but it is absolutely impossible not to intersect with China.
【Sea of Japan】
Regardless of the outcome, Japan will inevitably have to deal with China after the war, and if China is offended to death in the war, Japan will have a very miserable life after the war.
Therefore, the greatest possibility is that Japan will symbolically enter the war, and if the United States can gain an advantage, it will continue to oppose China, and if the United States falls into passivity, it must draw a clear line, and Japan's geopolitical pattern is like this, and it will not be good to offend either side of China and the United States.
【Sea of Japan】
Russia will also participate in the Sino-US conflict in the Taiwan Strait in some way, of course, the possibility of Russia directly participating in the war is very small, it is not that Russia is unwilling, and the Russian Navy will not be able to play a practical role in a naval and air war of this magnitude between China and the United States.
But as China's international partner, Russia could contain the United States and its allies in other directions, such as in the four northern islands and Europe.
North Korea and South Korea are also likely to be involved in the conflict between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait, North Korea's position is to firmly support China and directly wage war against the United States and its allies, South Korea's position should be similar to Japan's, as an ally of the United States, South Korea has to stand with the United States in the event of a war.
【Han Jun】
In fact, the South Korean defense minister has already publicly called on the United States to withdraw from the Asia-Pacific region if it is unable to protect its Asia-Pacific allies, which already shows that there is a rift in the relationship between the United States and its allies.
As an important part of the Western world, the EU's stance on the conflict in the Taiwan Strait may surprise many people, and during the Chinese leader's visit to France, French President Emmanuel Macron made it clear that France needs China as an international partner, which is almost a blatant contradiction to the United States.
Moreover, the high-level reception of the Chinese leader's visit to France at this point in time is itself of great symbolic significance.
[France has put out a cavalry regiment to extend a warm welcome to China's visit to France]
France is the nominal leader of the European Union, and if France decides to turn to China, many European countries will follow France's example, which is of course the best for China.
And regardless of whether France will turn to China or not, once China defeats the United States in the Taiwan Strait, they will inevitably turn to China and express their support for solving domestic problems.
In addition to countries that may support China, the United States also has some die-hard allies, including the United Kingdom and Australia, and these countries may even be mixed with the US military to fight in the Taiwan Strait.
In addition, Canada and India may also intervene in the Taiwan Strait battlefield, and in general, nine countries will participate in the war in China's Taiwan Strait.
Of course, China has never been afraid of the multinational coalition, in 1950 the mainland defeated the multinational coalition forces in North Korea, and in 2024, when China's military strength has made great progress, it is even easier to clean up the rabble.
Sources:
[1] Taiwan Affairs Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, Cadre Reader on the Taiwan Issue, Kyushu Publishing House, 2015.03, p. 77
[2] Wang Yi: The US has broken its word on the Taiwan issue, which can only further bankrupt its national credibility. Ministry of Foreign Affairs [cited 2022-08-02]