The visit of Chinese leaders to Serbia in May 2024 has brought China-Serbia relations to the spotlight on the Internet.
At present, China and Serbia can be said to be in a hot relationship between the people and the government, and Serbia has become the country with the best relations with China in Europe.
Many people are puzzled by this, why is the relationship between Serbia and China so good?
Sino-Cypriot diplomacy
Why Serbia "favors" China
Serbia's "preference" to China is very simple: on the one hand, China has a life-saving grace for Serbia, and on the other hand, China can really help Serbia develop.
It is not an exaggeration to say that China has saved Serbia's life, because if there is no China, Serbia will have been bombed by NATO in 2022, and the whole country will face the same events as the collapse of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia that year.
NATO bombed the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia
If you are more concerned about the development of Sino-Serbian relations, you know that China transported the FK-3 air defense system to Serbia in April 2022 with 6 Y-20 for a total of 18 sorties. This is not just an arms trade, but also a rare statement by China.
Because the situation in Serbia is already dangerous in 2022, when the conflict in Kosovo is already very serious, and this conflict is largely driven by NATO.
It is foreseeable that without China's involvement, NATO will force Serbia to disintegrate in the name of "human rights over sovereignty" and "support for Kosovo's national self-determination" by the end of 2022 at most, just as it bombed the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and forced the disintegration of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.
The Kosovo question
But China came in. In April 2022, six Chinese Y-20s went to Serbia to send strong reinforcements, so that Serbia could not fear the West.
First, after Serbia has an air defense system, if NATO bombs Serbia again, even if it succeeds, it will have a few teeth broken.
Second, China directly expresses an attitude in doing so, that is, "Serbia and China have Baoding". If NATO really starts bombing Serbia, then the Y-20 will carry more than just air defense systems.
Third, China tore open a hole in NATO and shipped air defense systems to Serbia.
You must know that Serbia is a country surrounded by NATO, but China flew the Y-20 into Serbia. At that time, the Chinese Y-20 was able to enter because China dredged several NATO countries led by Turkey.
Y-20 arrived in Serbia
This is very scary in the eyes of the United States, China can communicate even with NATO countries, what else can't be done?
Therefore, China's Y-20 went to Serbia for a while, and NATO immediately became honest, and its position on the Kosovo issue changed from "armed fighting" to "cultural fighting".
As for China's ability to help Serbia develop, it can be seen from a single statistic.
The bilateral trade volume between Serbia and China reached around $6 billion in 2022, while Serbia's national GDP was $63.5 billion that year.
In other words, the bilateral trade between China and Serbia accounts for about 10% of Serbia's GDP, which can be called the backbone of the economy.
China and Cyprus signed a trade agreement
From Serbia's point of view, on the one hand, NATO, which wants to dismember itself, and on the other hand, China, which can keep itself and help it make money, is self-evident.
Why China "favors" Serbia
The reason why China "prefers" Serbia is that on the one hand, it has shed blood with Serbia, and on the other hand, it can influence China's "European strategy".
Serbia can be described as a failed version of China. Serbia was also a socialist country at that time, but it also did not obey the coercion of the Soviet Union and pursued independence. By the end of the Cold War, it was also suppressed by NATO, and the outside wanted to divide itself.
Sino-Cypriot diplomacy
The difference is that China has withstood the post-Cold War pressure, and now it remains independent and is getting stronger. Serbia has failed, the country has been torn apart, and it has become a small marginal country.
And in 1999, there was also the bombing of the Chinese Embassy in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, which can be said that China is very sympathetic to Serbia, and has also shed blood with Serbia.
With these circumstances in mind, China is emotionally biased towards Serbia.
In terms of European strategy, Serbia is now a springboard for China to promote the Belt and Road Initiative in Europe.
There is a case that can explain this matter, and that is the Lao Railway.
China-Laos Railway
Historically, Vietnam has always regarded Laos as its vassal, and one of the main reasons for China's self-defense counterattack against Vietnam in 1979 was Vietnam's desire to annex Laos and Cambodia.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, Vietnam has also been besieging the development of Laos in order to maintain its control over Laos, resulting in Laos has always been very poor.
But when the China-Laos railway was opened to traffic in 2021, Laos became rich in just a few years. Then there was a situation where some wealthy people in Laos went to Vietnam to buy women and marry Vietnamese daughters-in-law, which directly broke the defense of the Vietnamese.
China-Laos Railway
The current situation in Laos can be said to be announcing to the world that "there is meat to eat with China". And China's current series of actions in Serbia are also trying to create a "model for getting rich" and tell European countries to follow China and have meat to eat.
The poorer Serbia is, the better China will be able to support it.
Serbian domestic problems and solutions
The biggest problem in Serbia right now is that there are people who want to sell the country for a good price. The current Serbian President Vučić is a politician who has national interests as his foundation, but this does not mean that all Serbian politicians are like this.
Vučić
These gang of people, like the compradors of the Republic of China period, have a kind of idea that "how can you sell the country to make money quickly when building a country". Not to mention that Serbia is also surrounded by NATO, and it is difficult to develop.
If China can help Serbia become rich, these people will find that "selling the country is not as fast as building the country", and they will take the interests of the country as the foundation.
Therefore, as long as China can help Serbia develop, Sino-Serbian relations will definitely get better and better.
Even the Kosovo issue in Serbia can be resolved through economic development.
The Kosovo question
As long as the economic cooperation between the two sides reaches a certain level, and Kosovo believes that the cost of separation is too great for it to bear, Kosovo will not make trouble.
When the time comes, NATO wants to dismember Serbia, and there is no way to do it.
Resources:
[1] Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China, "China-Cyprus Trade Volume Continues to Grow Significantly Year-on-Year in 2022"
[2] Xinmin Evening News "Y-20 flew to Serbia for 3 consecutive days, what does it mean?" 》