There has always been a vivid saying on the Internet that the current world situation is "one point and two sides". What is a point? It's the guide sea here! As for the two sides, there is the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict in Eastern Europe.
Let's talk about this "point" first: the reason why the United States and the Philippines are endlessly engaged in annoying military exercises is nothing more than to tie our hands and feet and not to support Russia and Palestine - this is not a small nonsense, from Biden to Blinken, even Yellen, who has nothing to do with her field of competence, is repeating this topic.
Therefore, it is said that this "point" is the first key issue that the United States is most afraid of, or most urgently needs to solve. That is, as long as this "one point" is solved, the "two sides" are equivalent to losing support, and then to solve it is not a problem.
Moving on to the "two sides", let's talk about the Palestinian-Israeli conflict first. At present, it is clear that progress is being made in the direction that the United States and Israel least want to see. Now even Egypt has stepped forward. But don't underestimate Egypt, you must know that in 1979, the "Egyptian-Israeli Peace Treaty" signed by the two sides can be called the foundation for Israel to stand firmly in the Middle East.
Because of the previous wars in the Middle East, Egypt was the "leading big brother". The reason why Egypt is standing up now is that Israel has to attack Rafah. And Rafah is next to Egypt, once Israel drives the poor Palestinian refugees to Egypt.
Then Israel can claim at any time that Hamas personnel have fled to Egypt with refugees, and in order to eliminate Hamas, Israel must attack Egypt – in fact, it is running to control the Suez Canal.
If Israel really controls the Suez Canal, then the United States will not hesitate at all, and will do its best to help Israel control the Middle East. And Europe will swing back to the United States!
Therefore, Rafah is not only about the suffering Palestinians, nor is it only about the life and death of Egypt, but also about the "chess eye" of the entire world chess game!
This is actually the reason why Egypt has been trying to mediate a truce between Israel and Hamas. However, Israel just refuses to raise the "muzzle of the gun by an inch".
Finally, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in Eastern Europe. In fact, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has quietly escalated into a "Russian-Treaty (European) war". That is, now in essence, it is a battle between Russia and NATO - this is not nonsense, anyone who has paid attention to it will constantly hear that in Ukraine, the so-called foreign mercenaries are already singing the leading role.
Why did it happen? The so-called: the day when the agent (Ukraine) disappears (incapacitates) is the moment when the protagonists behind collide.
For Putin, will defeating Ukraine improve Russia's harsh environment? Not at all! Russia is still besieged by NATO forces. And for the United States and NATO, can Ukraine go home and jump away after the defeat? Neither can it!
If the United States and NATO fail to demonstrate their strength, then the small countries around Russia that have joined NATO will be forced to leave NATO and reconcile with Russia because of the situation - nothing is more important than surviving, right? In this way, NATO will not be in the middle of the world, and the United States will lose its control and influence over Europe.
Therefore, the author said that the current situation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in Eastern Europe is the incubation period of the Russian-European war, and there is huge uncertainty.
For example, France, the author has said before that France has been clamoring for the end of Russia and Ukraine, and wants to form a European coalition, which is to "call the cards" of the United States, or not? Follow, okay, you and the United States will end up on your own, and we in Europe will wave the flag and shout in the back.
Don't follow? That's easy to do, the day will be over, the United States will consume its influence in Europe, and finally kick the United States out of the table, and France will lead the final negotiations on the Ukraine issue with Russia on behalf of Europe - this is called European strategic autonomy.
I remember that when the author threw out this judgment, many people thought that the author had a big brain and did not write novels, but is this the situation now? It's already very obvious.
It is conceivable that this "incubation period" is so critical for France, the United States, NATO, Europe, and naturally the same for Russia. So Russia must seize this "incubation period" and steer the war situation in a favorable direction - sure enough, Putin made a move!
According to Russian media reports, citing the Russian Federation Council (upper house of parliament): Russian President Vladimir Putin nominated Andrei Belousov, who previously served as the first deputy prime minister, as Russia's defense minister. At the same time, Putin signed a presidential decree appointing former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu as secretary of the Russian Security Council.
That is, Putin suddenly changed his commander, so why is Putin so? The author believes that behind Putin's sudden change of commander, there are three problems to be solved, and Shoigu's dismissal is both unexpected and inevitable.
First, solve economic problems. Belousov is an expert on economics, and Russia's most serious problem at the moment is not actually a military problem - after all, it has a comprehensive advantage, but an economic problem - it is still in a situation of comprehensive sanctions.
What is the war fighting? As far as the hot war is concerned, it is two aspects, one is money (economy) and the other is industrial capacity.
At present, Russia's industrial capacity is basically no problem, and its ability to produce equipment is more powerful than that of Europe and the United States, and the problem of natural economy is even more prominent. Therefore, the appointment of this economic expert as defense minister is the solution to this problem. Therefore, although Shoigu's dismissal was unexpected, it was inevitable - the situation was different, and it must be adjusted.
Second, solve the command problem. Anyone who has followed the conflict between Russia and Ukraine knows Surovikin, who is known as the Doomsday General, right? It has always been said that this person is the current god of war of the Russian army, and now he has returned to the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield from Africa (commanding Wagner) as the deputy commander-in-chief of the regional joint forces of the Russian special military operation.
That is, Surovikin has in fact become the real commander of the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield. Because the "commander-in-chief" is, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Army: Gerasimov, his position has not changed in this adjustment.
That is, the issue of military command has been straightened out, because the main goal of the new defense minister is to solve wartime economic problems, and Gerasimov is in the center to assist Putin, and the doomsday general Surovikin is equivalent to letting go of his hands and feet and having more autonomy.
Third, to solve the problem of unity. As soon as this topic is mentioned, I am afraid that people will understand - that's right, Prigozhin, who was going to storm Moscow back then, was pointing the sword at Shoigu. That is, there has always been a problem of disunity within the Russian army, and Shoigu is at the center of the storm.
At a time when the current situation is changing, Putin's dismissal of Shoigu may seem unexpected, but in fact it is inevitable. In short, there is no doubt that Putin's sudden change of command is to deal with the next "Russian-Treaty (European) war", there is no doubt about it.
Finally, it should be emphasized that the above content is only the author's opinion, and it should be a brick and a jade. After all, peace is the common cry of mankind, and I am also based on this point.