The Shanghai Composite Index briefly turned red in the afternoon, and the reason was found! Today's major leading sectors have an important commonality

National Business Daily

2024-05-13 15:27Posted on the official account of Sichuan Daily Economic News

Reporter: Zhao Yun Editor: Xiao Ruidong

On May 13, the market fluctuated and adjusted throughout the day, with the ChiNext index leading the decline and the Shanghai index relatively strong. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.21%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.6%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.95%.

In terms of sectors, gas, ports, electricity, home appliances and other sectors were among the top gainers, while quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, satellite navigation, cloud games and other sectors were among the top decliners.

Overall, individual stocks fell more and rose less, and more than 4,100 stocks in the whole market fell. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today was 909.8 billion, a decrease of 2.7 billion from the previous trading day.

Perhaps because of the pressure on sentiment due to the two bearish news over the weekend, A-shares opened relatively weakly today.

However, the market resilience is still there, and the major indices quickly bottomed out and rebounded, among which the Shanghai Composite Index was stronger, and once turned red in the afternoon. And such a structural market is related to the specific sectors that are leading the rise against the trend today.

There is a view that sectors such as shipping, home appliances and automobiles are more or less with the concept of foreign trade exports. "Going overseas" is not only the company's second growth curve, looking at the world, "going overseas" is also the core logic of the formation of many great companies, so "going overseas" can also bring a higher valuation premium.

There is even a poll that the highly discussed "Singer 2024" over the weekend has risen sharply against the trend behind Mango Supermedia, and in a sense, there is also the concept of "going to sea" - after all, the show has invited many foreign singers with extraordinary strength, which is not only the biggest gimmick of this year, but also may attract the attention of overseas netizens.

The mood was slightly under pressure in early trading, and the concept of "going to sea" became a long home field

The first thing to say is that there are two news biases over the weekend, which specifically refer to:

First, the financial data in April fell more than expected, and the new social finance turned negative for the first time since November 2005.

Second, the IPO review has resumed, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges plan to review the issuance and listing applications of the two companies on May 16.

Pessimists have their own pessimistic understanding. However, it is not difficult to see from the trend of the market bottoming out and rebounding today, the actual degree of panic is relatively limited.

For the first point, Kaiyuan Securities believes that the unexpected credit contraction may lead to short-term pressure on A-shares, especially pro-cyclical assets facing certain "headwinds", but with the strengthening of interest rate cuts and RRR cuts and the strengthening of fiscal expenditures, there is no need to be pessimistic about credit in the sense of total in the second half of the year.

Regarding the second point, there is also a view that investors do not need to be pessimistic and do not need to over-interpret. After the market forms an upward trend, there is often an upward inertia, and even if the pace of IPO issuance is slightly increased during the period, it will not have much impact on the market.

"The key depends on the pace of IPO issuance and the number of IPO issuances. Maintaining a balanced and reasonable level of issuance will also have a very limited impact on the market. ”

Returning to the plates, as mentioned at the beginning of the article, the main leading sectors have one thing in common - "going to sea".

Specifically:

1) Shipping

The "king of shipping" COSCO Shipping Holdings stood at 14 yuan, a new high since September 2021, with a cumulative increase of more than 46% during the year, which shows the strength of the sector.

On the news side, according to data provided by data agency Freightos, container freight rates departing from Asia have risen by about $1,000/FEU since April. Rates to the U.S. West Coast and Northern Europe have risen to about $4,000/FEU, and to about $5,000/FEU for the Mediterranean.

On May 13, the main contract of the container transportation index (European line) rose by 15% during the day, and the forward contracts of 2410, 2412 and 2502 were all closed intraday. As of the close, the European line rose by more than 14%, continuing to hit a record high.

Behind the soaring freight rates, it is obvious that there is an imbalance in the "balance" of supply and demand: on one end, there is a shortage of capacity supply, and at the other end, market demand is picking up.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the mainland's foreign trade maintained an upward trend. In the first four months of 2024, the total value of mainland trade in goods was 13.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. Among them, exports increased by 4.9% and imports increased by 6.8%. In dollar terms, imports and exports, exports and imports also increased by 2.2%, 1.5% and 3.2% year-on-year, respectively, in the first four months; Looking at the monthly data, imports, exports and exports increased by 2.4% and 4.6% month-on-month in April.

2) Home appliances and automobiles

On the one hand, the home appliance and automobile sectors were driven by the domestic "trade-in" policy, and they were active in the early stage.

On the other hand, the potential to go overseas is also the new logic of the home appliance and automobile sectors this year.

According to the data, China's white goods exports in the first quarter were 29.82 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%; In the first four months, automobile exports were 254.85 billion yuan, an increase of 24.9%.

As for the mango supermedia mentioned at the beginning of the article, the understanding of "going to sea" is actually more ridiculous.

However, the theme of "Singer 2024", as well as "Celebrating More Than Years 2" mentioned in yesterday's push, all involve the media sector, and if the former market continues well, it may boost the hype of the latter-related concepts.

Analysts said that "Singer 2024" is a continuation of the popular variety show many years ago, and this year, in the form of full live broadcast and the introduction of foreign singers PK, the attention is high, and the expectation of becoming a hit again is high.

The valuation of the public sector was repaired, and the brokerage sector briefly broke out in the afternoon

The gas sector that led the rally today, although it has no logic to go to sea, is also very tough.

On the news side, in January 2024, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a supplementary document on the basis of the "Guiding Opinions on Establishing and Improving the Upstream and Downstream Price Linkage Mechanism of Natural Gas" in June 2023, requiring large and medium-sized cities across the country to complete a price adjustment by June this year, and to establish a price linkage mechanism (including residents and non-residents) in administrative regions above the county level by the end of September, as of May 2024, many provinces and cities across the country have successively launched the natural gas price linkage mechanism.

With the decline of international natural gas prices, the return of gas sales costs to a reasonable level, and the continuous promotion of the price adjustment mechanism, the terminal sales price of gas has been further improved, and the gross margin of gas sales at the residential end of the city gas company is expected to continue to improve.

The water sector, which is also a public utility, also performed well today.

On the news side, on May 9, a hearing on the tap water price reform plan in the central urban area of Guangzhou was held, and a total of 17 participants in the hearing expressed their understanding and support for the water price adjustment.

Finally, it is worth mentioning that the Shanghai Composite Index briefly turned red in the afternoon, and the securities sector contributed significantly.

However, as brokerage stocks rose and fell, the Shanghai Composite Index also turned green again at the end of the session; The banking sector, which also belongs to big finance, continues to rise. This may indicate that the market's risk aversion has indeed strengthened.

After trading last Friday, the China Securities Regulatory Commission revised and issued the "Provisions on Strengthening the Supervision of Listed Securities Companies", which clearly requires listed securities companies to return to their origins, become better and stronger, and effectively assume the role of "leader" and "vanguard" leading the high-quality development of the industry.

Guosen Securities said that macroeconomic recovery is a precondition for the brokerage market, and favorable regulatory policies are the catalytic conditions for the sector market. At present, the macro economy is showing a weak recovery, superimposed on the abundant liquidity environment, and under the catalysis of a series of policies such as building a "national team" in the financial industry, the allocation value of the brokerage sector is highlighted. At the same time, the brokerage sector is at a low level of institutional allocation, and there is a large space for future allocation.

In addition, in the context of policies to encourage the securities industry to become better and stronger through mergers and acquisitions, the industry's mergers and acquisitions are expected to heat up, and many securities companies plan to enhance their comprehensive strength and core competitiveness through mergers and acquisitions.

National Business Daily

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