No more installation, Xi'an has also completely canceled the purchase limit!
On May 9, the same day that Hangzhou announced the cancellation of purchase restrictions, the Xi'an Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau issued the "Notice on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market".
This is the fourth super megacity after Suzhou, Chengdu and Hangzhou to fully lift purchase restrictions this year.
So far, there is no reservation and purchase restriction in the country, only Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hainan, and Tianjin are left.
Some friends who don't know Xi'an are going to wonder:
——Xi'an's GDP is only the existence of the country's TOP20 goalkeepers, why can it be so calm, and only now has the purchase restrictions been completely relaxed, even later than Suzhou and Chengdu, which are 2 trillion level cities?
01
First of all, it is clear: Xi'an is the last second-tier city to release purchase restrictions, and Xi'an really has this confidence.
Why do you have this confidence? Because in the past, the market of Xi'an property market can be said to be very bright in the country.
Let me tell you about it from a few perspectives.
Confidence 1: Housing prices have risen for 16 consecutive years.
According to data from the China Index Research Institute, in the past April, the price of new residential buildings in Xi'an increased by 0.62% month-on-month, ranking second in the country, second only to Shanghai.
Let's take a look at the chart below.
Since 2021, except for a few months, housing prices in Xi'an have all achieved month-on-month increases.
Starting in 2023, the price of new homes in Xi'an is rising without exception.
In other words, Xi'an's housing prices have risen for the 16th consecutive month.
How explosive is Xi'an's achievement?
If we put the national data together, we will be clear.
From September 2021 to the present, in more than 30 months, the national average house price has only risen for four months, and this April corresponds to the wave of Xiaoyangchun in 2023.
In addition, for the remaining 26 months, house prices across the country are falling every month! As of now, housing prices across the country have fallen for 10 consecutive years!
Xi'an rose 16 times in a row VS the country fell 10 times in a row.
Confidence 2: The decontamination cycle is good
At the 430 Politburo meeting, the Central Committee focused on destocking, and we have always said that this is of strategic significance.
You must know that the housing inventory in the country has reached nearly 400 million square meters, exceeding the 2015 level.
With this inventory, the average decommissioning cycle for new homes in our 100 major cities is 25 months.
And behind this average: the long decontamination cycle, such as Shaoguan and Xining, has been more than 100 months.
What is the concept?
That is to say, even if the land is not developed now, and the house that has not been developed does not get a pre-sale certificate and does not get a certificate to enter the market, it will take 10 years to sell out according to the inventory that has been obtained and sold now.
There is not much to do about these cities except to seek more blessings for themselves.
So, what about Xi'an?
Judging from the available data, the inventory of new houses in Xi'an is about 9.6 million square meters, and according to the latest flow rate, the de-industrialization cycle in Xi'an is about 12 months, which is a relatively healthy level, and it is far below the warning line of 18 months.
In fact, in 2023, the sales area of commercial housing in Xi'an will be about 17 million square meters, an increase of 15% over the previous year, and the city's commercial housing sales will be about 250 billion yuan, ranking among the top ten in the country.
Confidence 3: The soil shooting is hot, full of confidence
In the first quarter of this year, the supply of residential land fell by 30% across the country.
This is also very understandable, the property market is cold, the developer can't sell the land, and if you don't build it, you have to bear the cost of capital, so it will naturally be obscene development, and you can save it.
But in this case, the results of Xi'an's local auction are as follows:
——In 2023, 134 parcels of land will be transacted, and the land transfer fee will still exceed 100 billion yuan, and 8 lottery plots will be born;
——In the first quarter of 2024, Xi'an will sell 4.1 million square meters of land, ranking first in the country! The income from land transfer is the second largest in the country, second only to the capital Beijing. Especially in the hot sectors of Chanba International Port and high-tech, the competition is still fierce.
There is two logics behind this phenomenon:
First, developers have full confidence in the city of Xi'an.
Second: the popularity of flour determines that the price of bread will not be too low.
Therefore, the relaxation of purchase restrictions in the Xi'an property market has not been made until now, not only because of the government's patience, but also because of the strength of the Xi'an property market in the past!
02
So the question is, since Xi'an is so strong? Why should purchase restrictions be lifted?
Because the Xi'an property market has come to a critical point.
In other words, in the case of the downturn of the national property market, the Xi'an property market has been strong in the past, and it has come to the end of the strong crossbow.
In the past May Day, although the number of new houses in Xi'an was not much different from the same period in previous years, the transaction volume fell by nearly three percent.
Let's break down a few dimensions to tell you about the current situation in Xi'an, and everyone will understand what I said, "Xi'an property market, must be released from purchase restrictions"!
1. The leverage ratio of residents has reached a high level
Over the years, many cities have relaxed purchase restrictions. But we all know that for many people, what is lacking is not qualifications, but the down payment, the ability to repay the monthly payment, and the space to continue to increase leverage!
That's why so many scholars are calling for learning from the West to release water and inject money directly into residents' balance sheets!
So, what is the level of resident leverage in Xi'an?
The 2023 resident deposit and loan data in Xi'an has not yet been released. However, the data up to 2022 can be found from the 2023 Statistical Yearbook:
-- The balance of resident loans in Xi'an in 2022 is 0.91 trillion yuan;
Based on this calculation, the resident leverage ratio of Xi'an in 2022 reached 79%. Judging from the hot property market in Xi'an last year, loans in Xi'an will only increase in 2023, not decrease, that is
——In 2023, the leverage ratio of residents in Xi'an will not be less than 80%!
This resident leverage ratio, frankly speaking, is not low.
Because it is as strong as Beijing and Shanghai, the leverage ratio of residents is only below 70%. The leverage ratio of residents at the national level is only 63%.
If compared with itself, in 2017, Xi'an's resident leverage ratio was only 54%, and in 6 years, with the rapid development of Xi'an's property market, Xi'an's resident leverage ratio has increased by nearly 30%.
Therefore, Xi'an's space for further leverage is becoming more and more limited!
Regardless of the ups and downs of the property market, buyers need mortgage loans, so how to understand the debt behavior of mortgages, after all, the middle class is a vulnerable group, you can see the article "Buy a house like this, earn an extra 2 million (3)"
2. Population growth slows down
The rapid development of the city in Xi'an in the past few years, as well as the strength of the property market, have a lot to do with the long-term influx of population.
In the past few years, Xi'an has been very successful in attracting investment.
From the establishment of Tencent's northwest headquarters, to the landing of Alibaba's western data center, to Huawei, Geely, and JD.com's successive locations in Xi'an...
What will these industries bring?
People, of course – more than 400,000 permanent residents per year until 2020!
But since 2020, Xi'an's population growth has slowed down significantly. In 2022, Xi'an's permanent population will even show negative growth, a decrease of 160,000 people!
The causes of depopulation are intricate and we will not discuss them here. But in any case, this will definitely put pressure on the development of the city and the property market.
Fortunately, in 2023, Xi'an's population will return to positive growth, although it will only increase by 80,000 people, but at least it is a good sign, after all, population represents the vitality of a city.
3. The involution of second-hand houses and new houses is serious
As mentioned earlier, new houses in Xi'an have been rising, but there is a very subtle thing hidden in this.
That is, the new disk is crazy involution.
First of all, I will popularize a term with you: the fourth generation of housing.
To put it simply, it means that the odd and even floors are staggered, and each household is given a high-ceilinged super large terrace.
The first time this word landed in China, it was the Qiyi Urban Forest Garden in Chengdu, put a picture for everyone to feel.
The current Xi'an new market, COFCO, China Merchants, Gemdale, Longfor, Poly, Greentown... Developers almost all over the street are doing fourth-generation residences, and the quality is getting better and better, and more and more volume.
In addition to the gift area brought by the fourth-generation house, there are also down payments, parking spaces, and decoration packages.
You know, these gifts are costs for developers. Therefore, under these non-stop benefits, the price of new houses in Xi'an has actually been discounted.
In other words, the price of new houses in Xi'an is not as strong as the data seems, and behind the 16 consecutive rises in housing prices is the concession of more and more developers in the undercurrent of competition.
This is the case for new houses, but what about second-hand houses?
It's very simple, seeing the continuous evolution of the quality of new properties, who wouldn't want to sell their old house and upgrade their nest?
But what if you can't sell it? Price!
That is to say, the quality of the new house and the gift of the volume, and the second-hand house can only be the price.
Let's take the popular community "Tiandiyuan Fenglin Oasis" in Yanta District as an example.
In 2021, the average transaction price reached nearly 40,000 yuan/㎡.
Now the latest average listing price has dropped to 30,000 yuan/㎡
The listing price of individual listings has even been as low as 25,000 yuan/㎡.
This is a microcosm of the second-hand housing market in Xi'an - exchanging price for volume.
According to statistics, in Xi'an, the transaction price has fallen by more than 3% compared with 2021, accounting for more than 60%.
Moreover, the proportion of second-hand housing transactions in Xi'an is increasing year by year.
In 2023, the number of second-hand housing units recorded in Xi'an will be close to 100,000 units, which is almost the same as the number of new housing transactions, and this trend is continuing.
In other words, Xi'an will gradually evolve into a stock market in the future. The impact of the trend of second-hand housing on the overall potential energy of the property market will become more and more obvious.
After the introduction of this new policy, I expect that the number of second-hand housing listings in Xi'an will continue to increase in the short term, further pushing up the inventory pressure of Xi'an's second-hand housing market.
03
1. Prediction
The full lifting of purchase restrictions alone should have a limited impact in the short term.
This is because Xi'an has been liberalized outside the second ring road since last year, and the transaction volume within the second ring road is very small.
In other words, the liberalization of the purchase restriction in the second ring is just a fig leaf, and the impact on the real estate market is almost none.
However, there are two points in this policy that are easy to overlook, and I personally think they are important.
Articles 4 and 10, "trade-in" and "encourage the improvement of housing quality", we will understand:
This time, the policy directly reaches the current blockage point of the Xi'an property market - that is, to improve the release of demand.
Although the details of the trade-in have not yet come out, there is no doubt that this direction is the right one.
At the same time, it also means that the Xi'an property market will be more differentiated in the future.
Frankly speaking, many houses built in Xi'an in the early years are really not flattering in quality, especially in super high-rise communities with high floor area ratio and small building spacing.
In the future, as the quality of new houses becomes more and more volatile, it will definitely drive people to want to sell their old houses to improve the quality of living.
This also means that the property market in Xi'an will be more differentiated in the future.
High-density and densely spaced houses should be kept away as much as possible, while low-density good houses in the core area will be more sought-after, and the hot money in the future will be concentrated in high-quality plates and high-quality real estate.
How the middle class allocates family assets, you can read the article "Real Estate Dual-track System, What is the Method of Using a Suite to Borrow Chickens and Eggs to Increase the Value of Assets?" 》
2. Long-term optimism
The fact that Xi'an's property market has been able to remain strong for a long time is naturally inseparable from the city's fundamentals and its attraction to talents.
Sauvignon Blanc, in Chang'an.
As the ancient capital of the Thirteen Dynasties, Xi'an is also the favorite of the people of the five northwestern provinces. Its rich history and culture, superior geographical location and strong strategic positioning all determine that its lower limit will not be low.
At present, the most important thing for Xi'an is to improve its own industrial structure and increase the income of residents, so that residents can continue to travel lightly after the leverage is well digested.
In a word, Xi'an is still firmly optimistic about the future!
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