Stock Market Diary for June 5
1. Review of the diary of the previous period and yesterday
Last week's diary explained that all A fell below the rising trend line and began to break down, but after falling below the trend line, there will be a reverse trend line to confirm the validity of the breakdown process, last week has been perfectly completed to confirm the reverse draw, the only thing for shareholders on Friday is that Monday's 1120.408 did not fall below, leaving a glimmer of hope for shareholders. Therefore, on May 31, the diary explained that due to the formation of a triangle pattern since the bailout, it fell below the original upward trend line last month, and there was a downward break, but it still ran stably in the triangle, with pressure and support, and last week it fell below the upward trend line of the triangle on the right track, announcing another break, and the upper and lower rails of the triangle formed a cross last Friday, which has lost its meaning, so the tip is only to focus on the descending line, and at the same time has completed the reverse pumping confirmation process, so the downward break is established, 1120.408 did not fall below, just a glimmer of hope left to shareholders, and the amount can continue to shrink, such a sluggish amount of energy is unable to support the market upward, not falling is a strong market, so it is recommended to pay close attention to the volume of energy changes and 1120.408 gains and losses today.
The diary on the 3rd shows that the volume has broken and fallen, and the volume can return to the 800 billion mark, and the sustainability of the volume can be questioned. 3 fell below the decline channel on May 9, multiple breaks, generally below the general trend will have a reversal process, but yesterday because it is a large amount of breaking down, plus the lower shadow line, so today's probability of reversal is very small, can maintain the 3-day lower shadow line running is the strongest, but the probability is greater, since it is back to 800 billion, so the market wants to stop falling and rebounding, then must be able to fall below 800 billion, this is the lowest critical point of the amount of energy, in fact, the current stock market can be critical should need 850 billion. can't stand firm at 800 billion, and there is no reason to reduce positions in the future. If the volume can be more than 800 billion, there will be a chance for respite in the market outlook, which is the role of volume. However, the sustainability of the 3-day volume is doubtful, which means that it is difficult to stand above the 800 billion mark on the 4th. Second, tomorrow pay attention to today's lowest point of 1102.317, if tomorrow's volume can maintain above 800 billion, and run within today's lower shadow line throughout the day, then a small number of positions can participate in the rebound. The reason is that the lower band continues to move downward, so a small amount is too hidden, and the minimum requirement for the current plan to buy back is that all A returns to the red lower band plus a moderate volume. If the amount of energy is greatly reduced, then wait patiently for the opportunity to suck low.
The diary on the 4th shows that in fact, the recent all-A continuous decline is mainly due to the continuous decline of the CSI 2000 and CSI 1000, especially the CSI 2000. Yesterday's wave of ST killing, is the understanding of delisting and ST on the news side, I don't think it is a misreading, in fact, China's stock market is like this, especially those small and medium-sized micro stocks, most of them are problematic listings, everyone is scrambling to list the circle of money, the stock market as a private ATM for the right group, try to ask the small and medium-sized stocks listed in the past three years, those few can really have investment value, although there are also, but too little too little. Therefore, under the new delisting rules, it will be difficult for such stocks to withstand the test of delisting. Although there is no large-scale appearance of the current ST hat or delisting, yesterday the China Securities Regulatory Commission inquired about the annual report, such stocks have fallen to the limit, which has fully demonstrated that the listing of such stocks is basically unreliable, and the fake performance changes face and so on are endless, which is also the real reason for the sharp fall of the CSI 2000 in the past two days. On the 4th, due to the rebound after 2:00, so the whole A closed a T-shaped yin line, a long lower shadow line, whether it was adjusted in place, and the single-needle bottom was successful? I think the high probability of the event, technically speaking, this wave of May 10 began to fall, to today's lowest point, the decline has been 3/5 of the rebound on April 17, if you look at the golden section, today's lowest is just 50% of the golden section of the rebound after April 17, indicating that the adjustment target has been in place. So buy back 1/2 of the position at that time. It's just that today is a rebound after 2:00, and the volume can be sluggish, so there will be repeated in the future, and you can only buy 1/2 of the position to test the market. The key to the market outlook is the question of quantity, there is a market only if there is quantity, and there is no amount to continue to wait. Tomorrow's first or pay attention to the volume of changes, volume is the key, if the volume flat or high open high, then directly open to continue to buy back (and April 16 diary illustrates a reason). On the contrary, if there is no limit, the market will inevitably be weak and volatile, so this is why only 1/2 of the position is bought back today.
Second, the news side
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3. Analysis of today's market trend and market outlook
Today, except for the BSE 50, which opened slightly higher by 0.01%, other indices continued to open sharply lower. The Shanghai Composite opened 0.17% lower, and the All A opened sharply lower by 0.39%. After the opening, all A opened low and dived quickly, quickly forming a morning low of 1092.372 at 9:37, and then, like yesterday, repeatedly oscillated in the range of falling 0.3%-0.9% in the morning. At 10:51, after the second block of 1100, it began a rapid unilateral downward trend throughout the day, continuously falling below the lowest point in the morning, and yesterday's lowest point, forming a downward trend again, and finally closing at the lowest point of the day at 1082.543, down 1.84%. The Shanghai 50 equal-weight index fell less than 0.58%, but the small and medium-sized stock index plummeted, with the CSI 2000 plummeting 2.19%, the CSI 1000 falling 1.31%, and the CSI 500 falling 1.2%. This is the biggest contribution of the all-A break again today. The transaction fell below the 700 billion mark, only 689.9 billion transactions, 58.8 billion smaller than yesterday, today is a comprehensive decline in the market, 4606 stocks fell, only 673 stocks rose, a total of 2614 stocks fell more than the whole A (more than 2%), almost half of the stocks fell more than the whole A fell, but only 286 fell more than 5%. There are only 40 down limits.
The diary on the 4th has explained that the all-A adjustment is likely to be in place, and whether the single-needle bottoming is successful depends on the trading volume. If the volume can be enlarged today and open higher, it means that the single-needle bottom test is successful, and the market is directly opened to buy. On the contrary, if the volume can continue to shrink today, it will only fall on the way, continue to be weak and volatile, continue to wait patiently for the opportunity to buy low, buy back near the lowest point yesterday, and naturally pay attention to sell first. This is also the reason why yesterday can only buy back half a position, because yesterday's rebound after 2:00, immeasurable support, long lower shadow, although there is the possibility of a single needle bottoming, but immeasurable support is difficult to do, relying on the tail to pull up are weak performance. Today's opening shrinkage is sharply lower, which has doomed today's weak trend, but such a weak position is still far beyond expectations, and even yesterday's lowest point has fallen below, which is beyond my expectations. This is also that I did not seriously consider the power of ST and delisted stocks, yesterday's diary has already explained, the new rules for delisting, not a misreading of the fact that the Chinese stock market, the market will not be wrong, the CSI 2000 continues to fall sharply, it shows everything, the risk of delisting small and medium-sized stocks is huge, yesterday has been explained, see the review above. Therefore, this time the whole A continues to break and fall, which is a true portrayal of the risk of delisting, and everyone is afraid that the stocks in their hands will become ST or delisted stocks, so the CSI 2000 is like this. This is something I didn't expect from this adjustment that the impact of ST's delisting is so large.
Today, June 5, 3 A-share stocks that entered the delisting period suffered a sharp fall, and the delisted garden city plummeted by 98.68% at the highest level, and the stock price fell from nearly 10 yuan to about 0.1 yuan. As of the close, the delisted Garden City fell by 96.44%, and the delisted Tongda and delisted Carbon Yuan fell by 80.65% and 83.33%. It is worth mentioning that the delisted Garden City closed down today, setting a record for the largest decline in the history of A-shares. Recently, the ST sector as a whole has been under pressure, and many stocks have fallen for more than 20 consecutive trading days. In an interview with a Chinese reporter from a brokerage, market participants said that the "New National Nine Articles" and the supporting "new rules for delisting" fully reflect the firm attitude of supervision to create a capital market with advances and retreats.
This is also the reason why today's sharp fall, everyone has thrown out small and medium-sized tickets to avoid the risk of being ST in their hands, once delisted in China is a loss. It is also the first time I have encountered such a big plunge, plummeting 96.44% in one day, making history, and today the three delisted stocks plummeted at the same time, plus the four delisted stocks in the delisted mall last week continued to plummet, which seriously affected the sentiment, which is terrible. See figure. There is also a recent 23 consecutive fall limit of some ST stocks, which is also terrible, everyone panicked and sold small and medium-sized tickets that were afraid of thunder, which is the root of today's market exceeding expectations.
Long pain is not as good as short pain, many ST stocks are unlikely to be ST stocks in the near future, and they are killed by mistake. Since today's volume can fall below 700 billion, in fact, the short-term adjustment is basically in place, is due to the impact of ST delisting panic, the trend has exceeded expectations, I personally think that tomorrow should have the opportunity to suck low again, pay close attention, because today is almost bald and barefoot big yin, it seems very scary, in fact, compared to yesterday's T word, today's bald head and bare feet big yin is safer, this is after three weeks of decline, almost in the adjustment is about to be in place when the bald head and bare feet big yin, but is about to bottom out signal, So that's why there's a chance to suck low tomorrow. Of course, quantity is still key.
