Surging News reporter Shao Bingyan
According to data from a number of OTAs and third-party travel platforms, air ticket prices continued to fall after the "May Day", and low-cost air tickets of 100 yuan appeared in many places in China.
After the holiday, domestic and international fares have plunged, and consumers are more concerned about how long low-cost tickets will last, and what are the purchase risks? For the market, what are the reasons behind the generally lower fares after this year's "May Day" holiday, and whether airlines can still make money? In this regard, the surging news reporter interviewed a number of OTA (online travel platform) people, civil aviation industry insiders and airline insiders to reveal the logic behind the cabbage price ticket after the holiday.
Fares on some popular routes after May Day
Drop more than 50%, there are flights now 100 yuan "cabbage price"
According to recent data from the third-party travel platform "Ctrip", from May 9 to 16, the average price of domestic economy class air tickets was 627 yuan, a decrease of nearly 40% compared with the May Day holiday; The average price of outbound economy class air tickets was 2,974 yuan, a decrease of more than two percent from the previous month.
Specifically, among the popular domestic routes, the prices of routes from Beijing to Sanya, Chengdu, Chongqing, Guiyang, Wuhan, etc., Shanghai to Sanya, Shenzhen to Chengdu, Guiyang to Beijing, Xi'an to Hangzhou, Hangzhou to Guangzhou, Beijing to Dalian, Haikou to Shanghai and other routes have dropped significantly, down by more than 50% compared with the May Day holiday. In the next week or two, Hangzhou to Haikou, Wuhan, Guangzhou and other places, Chengdu to Kunming, Wuhan, Haikou and other places, Xi'an to Guiyang, Qingdao, Changsha and other places, there are low-cost air tickets of 100 to 300 yuan, mostly 1 to 2 percent off the original price.
According to the statistics of the third-party travel platform "Feichangzhun" App, for example, from Shanghai, the fare to Dalian, Sanya, Haikou and other places is as low as 100 yuan; For example, from Guangzhou, the ticket price to Hefei, Zhanjiang, Nanjing and other places is as low as 169 yuan; For example, from Beijing, the ticket price to Wenzhou, Guiyang, Wuhan and other places is as low as 200 yuan.
According to the data of the third-party travel platform "Qunar", after the "May Day" direct flight from Beijing to Haikou and Guiyang, Shanghai direct flight to Dalian, Sanya, Zhengzhou, Hangzhou direct flight to Chengdu and Zhuhai, Guangzhou direct flight to Hefei, Shanghai, Chengdu direct flight to Kunming, etc., the price of naked tickets (excluding taxes and fees) is about 200 yuan, of which on May 9, there was also a naked ticket of 96 yuan for Xinjiang direct flight to Wuxi.
According to the surging news reporter understands, the airline's air ticket price is a market-oriented pricing mechanism, after the "May Day" holiday, the flow of tourists has declined rapidly, there is a surplus of air capacity, and the overall off-season supply exceeds demand, resulting in a common phenomenon of ticket prices after the holiday, and many routes also have some cabbage tickets as low as 100 yuan. However, for consumers, the price trough after May Day is also good for off-peak travel.
For the sharp drop in ticket prices after the holiday, Xiao Peng, a researcher at Qunar Big Data Research Institute, told the surging news reporter that from the perspective of bookings, the number of passengers in the week after May Day is not small, but the passenger structure has changed: business passengers have recovered significantly, so the price of air tickets between big cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Chongqing and other cities has not dropped significantly, and the price reduction is some tourist routes, including international routes. After May Day, it is often the off-season for outbound travel, and it is also the off-season for studying abroad and visiting relatives (not student holidays), so the price drop is more obvious.
In addition, Xiao Peng also said that after the recovery of supply this year, some routes in the off-season showed oversupply, and airlines adopted a more flexible pricing strategy, and the price reduction was more obvious in March and May this year.
"After the holiday, the demand for domestic tourism has dropped significantly, and the routes dominated by tourists will inevitably be affected." A civil aviation industry insider told the surging news reporter that most of the cabbage price routes are routes where the market lacks industrial and commercial travelers and tourists are the absolute main source of tourists.
However, before the May Day holiday this year, there was a dive in air ticket prices, and the fares of domestic and international routes fell year-on-year. According to the third-party travel platform "Flight Steward", in terms of domestic fares, the average air ticket price (economy class) during the May Day period in 2024 will be 712 yuan, a decrease of 20% compared with the May Day holiday in 2023, an increase of 4% compared with the May Day holiday in 2019, and an increase of 24% compared with Qingming in 2024. In terms of international air tickets, the average price of international (economy class) air tickets during the May Day period in 2024 will be 2,170 yuan, a decrease of 20% compared with May Day in 2023, an increase of 38% compared with May Day in 2019, and an increase of 27% compared with Qingming in 2024.
How long can low airfares last?
What is the logic behind the cabbage fare?
According to the surging news, usually cabbage price tickets are short-term promotions carried out by airlines, mainly to attract passenger flow in the off-season, and are usually designated routes individually, which will not cover too much range.
Some people in the civil aviation industry pointed out to the surging news reporter that the low price of air tickets in the off-season after May Day usually lasts until the middle of June during the college entrance examination period, during which the small peak of the Dragon Boat Festival will rise again, and most of the air tickets will be cheaper at other times. Some OTA sources also said, "In the short term, low prices are expected to continue until mid-May." ”
"The cost of air tickets is mainly composed of fuel, employee salaries, maintenance costs, aircraft depreciation and other expenses." The surging news reporter learned from people in the civil aviation industry that among them, the total cost of fuel and employee wages is higher, usually four cents per kilometer, but different models and ranges are not the same. Take the Beijing-Shanghai line as an example, it is usually 1,100 kilometers and has to be sold for at least 500 yuan.
"A 100-yuan cabbage ticket must be a loss for airlines, but if the flight cannot be canceled, the market competition is very fierce, and all airlines are bargaining, and finally they may irrationally reduce the price to win the source of passengers." An airline executive told The Paper.
The above-mentioned management further told the surging news reporter that on the one hand, weak demand and fierce competition in the off-season have led to irrational price wars. On the other hand, cabbage prices are usually one-way flights, which also have a certain gimmick effect. A cabbage ticket of about 100 yuan is almost equivalent to a fuel surcharge, and airlines usually have a tougher off-season cycle, so in the case of a fixed total cost, the marginal benefit is emphasized.
"Reduced demand during the off-season is a challenge for airlines." Another person in the civil aviation industry pointed out, "Therefore, it is one to pull a person's head, cash is king, at least for the airline to supplement some income, and the profitability of other aviation is more dependent on the business line to support, so the cabbage price ticket is a way to attract passenger flow, not for the purpose of profit." ”
A person from the marketing department of an airline also joked to the surging news reporter, "You can earn a little is a little, no one buys it only at a low price, and some international routes also earn a fuel fee, and you can pull one in the off-season." ”
"Special tickets usually appear in the off-season, and there are usually a few tickets for each flight." Another airline management told The Paper that air tickets are a special commodity, which cannot be stored, and under the condition of a certain load factor, there is a marginal cost close to zero, and from an economic point of view, low-cost air tickets are reasonable.
The above-mentioned person also pointed out that at present, some domestic low-cost airlines, mainly drainage, may put a few seats on a flight, and then there are many additional conditions, such as non-refundable, non-changeable, no free baggage allowance, etc.
Buying low-priced tickets is also something to be aware of
The "routine" of the point ticket on behalf of the black ticket
It should be noted that while passengers buy low-cost tickets, they also need to guard against unreliable low-cost tickets sold by "black ticket agents".
Previously, many users reported that some sellers on the second-hand trading platform advertised that the air tickets had "no infrastructure fuel fees", and even claimed that the special tickets were sold at a 2% discount. The surging news reporter learned from industry insiders that such ultra-low-cost air tickets hide many potential safety hazards. Buying such tickets usually encounters slow ticket issuance, or even inability to issue tickets, flights, and refunds, which will not only delay passengers' trips, but also may be deceived, and there will be a risk of personal information leakage.
According to the reporter's understanding, to buy a ticket generally to find a ticket agent (referred to as the ticket agent), the ticket agent is a legal and compliant ticket sales channel that has obtained the qualification of sales agent business, mainly including OTA platforms and agents at all levels. The "black ticket agent" is a ticket agent who does not have the qualification of a ticket sales agent, and they usually sell point tickets and obtain so-called special tickets by swiping credit cards.
Among them, point tickets, also called mileage tickets, are exchanged for free tickets through the mileage of airline members. Some illegal merchants obtain mileage redemption tickets by stealing other people's miles or purchasing miles from third parties and sell them to other passengers at a higher price, and consumers are likely to be unable to board such tickets.
For consumers, the first thing to pay attention to is the choice of channels, they should buy from OTA platforms and regular ticket agents, and ask ticket agents to show their sales agent business qualifications before placing an order. In the past, there have been fraudulent websites that produce fake tickets on behalf of black tickets, attracting consumers to place orders at ultra-low prices, unable to pay online, and being guided to complete deceptive processes such as offline transfers. In addition, some OTA people reminded that when booking tickets, as long as consumers use bank cards to remit directly to their personal bank accounts, most of them are black ticket agents. To identify whether it is a formal booking website, you can see whether the website has the operation record of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and whether it has the certification qualification of CATA (Civil Aviation Transport Association of China).
Source: The Paper