The current world pattern can be said to be dominated by the United States, followed by Russia and China. The United States has constantly interfered in the political affairs of other countries, causing dissatisfaction among other countries. However, if the two countries can merge, a superpower will be born and American supremacy may also be broken.
Who are these two countries? How likely is it that the two countries will merge?
Relations between the two countries
The two countries that are considered possible to merge are Russia and Belarus. The two are inextricably linked in terms of geographical location and ethnic relations, and have a long history.
In terms of state relations, both countries were former members of the Soviet Union. The language, religion, and ethnicity are all exactly the same. Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, Belarus was not independent. It was not until the official collapse of the USSR that Belarus officially declared its independence. Russia inherited most of the weapons and land of the Soviet Union, becoming the largest country in the world by area. The country's comprehensive national strength and international status should not be underestimated.
Belarus, although it is not well known internationally, is developing on its own. It can be said that the two countries were originally one country, and their living habits and cultures are very similar. Not only that, but the two countries are also very close geographically and are neighbors, and the geographical location of Belarus is very crucial.
Belarus is located between Russia, Ukraine and Poland and borders the Baltic Sea to the north. Its strategic location is so dangerous that it has been called "a knife in the throat of NATO". If the two countries merge, the impact on NATO will be very large.
In addition, the industrial structures of the two countries are also highly complementary. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the disintegrated countries inherited different aspects of the Soviet Union's industrial technology. If the two countries merge, Belarus's light industry can make up for the shortcomings of Russia's industrial development, and it will also bring great benefits to the improvement of the comprehensive national strength of the two countries.
However, despite the inextricable links between the two countries and the many benefits that come with merging, they still face various problems and challenges.
Practical factors faced by the merger
First of all, Belarus, despite being a small country, has a very stable domestic situation. That is, it does not need a strong external force to preside over the big picture. In the event of a hasty merger with a country, the distribution of power and the attribution of national sovereignty will be issues to be discussed.
Moreover, Russia will definitely not allow its national sovereignty to be submitted to Belarus. Therefore, in the event of the merger of the two countries, there is a high risk that Belarus will lose its national sovereignty, which will inevitably have a negative impact on domestic stability. This is absolutely something that the leaders of the two countries and the two peoples do not want to see.
Second, there are also political and economic differences between the two countries. It is true that the historical development of Russia and Belarus has a similar background, but after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the independence of the participating countries, each country has its own trajectory of development, from political system, economic system to religious beliefs and living habits. Each country has its own characteristics.
The existence of these differences between two independent states is normal and does not require undue attention. But when the two countries merge, these differences are infinitely magnified and become frictions within the new country, triggering disagreements and conflicts. Conflict.
Third, the international community will also oppose this matter, putting pressure on both countries. The first to bear the brunt is the United States. After World War II, countries around the world were in a period of post-war recovery. Only the United States has been the least affected. While other countries sit idly by, the United States has begun to develop high technology and support other countries. States provoke conflicts between countries.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States developed rapidly in science and technology and economy, and the dominant position of the United States became stronger day by day. Although it has since retreated, it is still ahead of other countries in terms of science and technology, military and comprehensive national strength.
Therefore, if Russia and Belarus merge, the United States cannot foresee the impact of the merger on itself. This is something that the United States absolutely does not want to see. The merger will certainly run into resistance.
In addition to the United States, NATO certainly does not want to see such a phenomenon. The merger threatens not only the United States, but also NATO to a considerable extent. They may restrict the merger between the two countries through sanctions or economic means, making it difficult to carry out the merger.
Finally, the policy directions and interests of the two countries are also different. Although Russia and Belarus are both members of the former Soviet Union and share common interests and development directions, their development and policy directions after independence are different.
To sum up, the two countries have close ties in terms of historical development and geographical location. The two countries have many similarities in their national conditions and general directions, but they also have great differences in their national interests and other decision-making directions. are different and may even conflict with each other.
As a result, the merger of the two countries will face many pressing and thorny issues that need to be resolved. Merging is not an easy task, and the odds are slim.
So, let's imagine what kind of impact it would have on the United States if the two countries really overcame all difficulties and became one.
Will the merger of the two countries threaten the United States?
In fact, careful analysis shows that even if Russia and Belarus merge, it will not necessarily threaten the dominance of the United States. There are several reasons for this:
The strength and combined national power of Russia and Belarus are not enough to challenge the United States. Although the two countries will have a larger territory, more population, and more resources, they will be inferior to the United States in terms of economy, science and technology, and military. In contrast, there is still a certain gap, and it will not be able to compete with the United States in a short period of time.
Economically, the combined GDP of the two countries is less than $2.1 trillion, compared to the $27.37 trillion in the United States. This gap is difficult to bridge.
Technology is the primary productive force. The United States has world-leading science and technology. Even if the two countries integrate their respective technologies, there is still a big gap compared to the United States.
The allies of the two countries are also dwarfed by those of the United States. If you want to have considerable influence in the international community, you need the support of your allies in addition to your own strength. After World War II, the United States had many good friends through its economic and military support for other countries. countries, and these countries have firmly chosen to unite with the United States.
Currently, European countries, including Northern Europe and Finland, have joined NATO. All Central European regions, with the exception of Belarus, have joined NATO. If Ukraine did not want to join NATO, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict would not have broken out.
Russia and Belarus are far inferior to the United States in this regard. They have good-neighborly countries, but they are not allies, and they cannot be unified in many decisions.
After the merger, the country will not be able to form a stable situation in a short time. Before the merger, the two countries will face many difficulties. After the merger, the two countries need to integrate in all aspects. On some policy aspects, they also need to find the most appropriate way to reach consensus, which will take a long time. Adapt and improve.
From this point of view, the merger of the two countries is almost impossible. Even if the two countries resolve these issues, it will take a long time. Moreover, the merger of the two countries may not be able to shake the current position of the United States. At present, independent development of the two countries is the best choice.