In 2023, a total of 85 foreign communications satellite launches will be carried out, and 2,221 communication satellites will be successfully sent into space, reaching a new high. Low-orbit communication satellites are still a hot spot for development, the construction of low-orbit military constellations has been substantially started, the deployment of a number of low-orbit commercial constellations has entered a new stage, new progress has been made in the field of mobile phone direct connection to satellites, and traditional high-orbit operators and emerging satellite Internet companies have further deepened cooperation. On the whole, the development of communication satellites is fiercely competitive, and major integration and reform will continue to be carried out, and the integration of high, medium and low orbits and the integration of space and earth is an inevitable trend.
1 General situation
In 2023, a total of 85 foreign communications satellite launches will be carried out, and 2,221 communications satellites will be successfully sent into space, including 22 military communications satellites and 2,199 civilian and commercial communication satellites. Since the successful launch of the first communication satellite on December 18, 1958, 8,913 communication satellites have been successfully launched abroad. By the end of 2023, a total of 6,887 foreign communication satellites were in orbit, and communication satellites were still the largest number of spacecraft in orbit in the world (see Table 1). In 2023, the number of successful deployments of foreign communication satellites will increase by 292 compared with 2022, and the deployment of low-orbit large-scale constellations such as Starlink is still the primary reason for the increase in the number of satellites. The United States ranks first by an order of magnitude, accounting for more than 90% of the total number of launches launched by a single country, and continues to maintain its absolute leading position, while Europe still ranks second. In terms of the number of orbits, the United States, Europe, and Russia rank among the top three, accounting for more than 97% of the total number in orbit.
Table 1 Statistics on the number of foreign communication satellites launched and in orbit in 2023
2 The field of low-orbit satellite Internet is booming,
A new breakthrough has been achieved by the direct connection of mobile phones to satellites
"Starlink" and "One Network" construction and application are leading in the world.
Mainstream low-orbit constellations have made mixed progress
As an emerging network information infrastructure, the low-orbit broadband constellation represented by "Starlink" and "OneWeb" has become a development hotspot in many countries and regions. In 2023, the "Starlink" constellation will still maintain an absolute leading edge, and the progress of system construction will continue to accelerate, firmly occupying the leading position in the industry, with 63 launches implemented annually, a total of 1,984 satellites deployed, and the cumulative total number of launches has exceeded 5,650, and the construction progress is significantly ahead of the world. In 2023, the deployment of the "Starlink" system will officially enter a new stage, focusing on the launch of Starlink V2.0Mini new configuration satellites, with a total of 43 batches of 936 V2.0Mini satellites launched (see Figure 1). The new satellite adopts a dual-solar wing configuration, uses a number of new technologies, and has a capacity 4 times higher than that of the first-generation (V1.x) satellite, and is the first to configure an E-band communication payload for the feeder link, and the first to use an argon-ion electric propulsion system. In terms of operation, the "Starlink" service has been applied in 70 countries, with more than 2.3 million users, and has successfully turned cash flow positive, which will become one of the main sources of revenue for SpaceX in the future, verifying the viability of its business model.
Figure 1 Starlink V1.5 and V2.0Mini satellites
Schematic diagram of stacking inside a fairing
In 2023, the "One Network" constellation will officially complete the first-generation constellation networking task and start the in-orbit test work of the second-generation satellite. In 2023, the UK's "One Network" constellation will launch a total of 132 satellites, and has successfully completed the task of building a generation of constellations, meeting the requirements of global coverage, and will become the world's first low-orbit communication satellite constellation with global communication service capabilities, providing high-speed and low-latency broadband services for maritime, government, enterprises and aviation users in 37 countries in Europe and most of the United States from May. In May 2023, the United Kingdom launched a second-generation test satellite "Joeysat", developed in cooperation with the European Space Agency (ESA), carrying a digital regenerative payload and a multi-beam phased array antenna, focusing on verifying beam-hopping technology and improving the flexibility of satellite communications, and completed in-orbit testing in July. Compared with the first generation of satellites, the quality of the second generation of satellites will be increased, and the capacity will be increased by 3~5 times (see Figure 2).
Fig.2 The second-generation Joeysat test satellite of "One Network".
Other constellations have also made some progress, and competition in LEO space has intensified. In October 2023, Amazon launched two prototype satellites of the Kuiper system, Kuipersat-1/2, achieving a breakthrough from "0 to 1" in the constellation, and successfully demonstrated end-to-end two-way video calls using the satellite network for the first time in November, and is expected to start operational satellite deployment in the first half of 2024. In July, Telesat launched its second Lightspeed constellation test satellite, Telesat LEO-3, to verify its Q/V band communication capabilities. Datwyler Associates (MDA), the development cost of 198 satellites was reduced from $3 billion to $1.6 billion, solving the problem of funding shortages and development delays by the original satellite contractor Thales (TAS), and the launch of the first Lightspeed service satellite was delayed in mid-2026. The European Satellite Corporation (SES) "Next Generation Three Billion Augmentation" (O3bmPower) medium-orbit system deploys 4 satellites per year, and a total of 6 satellites are deployed, but the failure problem will affect the subsequent development and deployment progress. The German company Rivada submitted two application documents to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) to obtain spectrum licenses for 576 Ka-band satellites, and plans to start the deployment of the constellation in 2025 and complete the deployment of the entire constellation in the first half of 2028.
Substantial progress has been made in the service of direct connection of mobile phones to satellites,
Industrial giants have accelerated their layout
In recent years, a number of satellite operators and related industry giants have actively deployed to promote satellite deployment, in-orbit testing and application landing, and seize the first-mover advantage in market segments.
Start-ups such as AST Space Mobile (ASTS) and Lynk Global continue to advance the construction of low-orbit satellite constellations for mobile phone direct-to-satellite services, working with terrestrial operators and conducting a number of in-orbit tests. AST is promoting the construction of the "SpaceMobile" constellation, which consists of 168 BlueBird low-orbit satellites, to provide direct satellite connection 4G/5G services to existing mobile phones and terminals. In 2023, AST will use the BlueWalker-3 low-orbit satellite to carry out tests on voice calls, 4G video calls, and 5G cellular broadband connections with a maximum 5G download speed of 14 Mbit/s, and has established partnerships with about 40 mobile operators (see Figure 3). LynkGlobal is promoting the construction of the "Lynk" constellation system, which provides broadband, voice, text messaging and other services for existing mobile phones or terminals. In July 2023, LynkGlobal demonstrated its ability to conduct two-way voice communication with existing ordinary mobile phones based on Lynk satellites. As of November, LynkGlobal has provided commercial services based on existing handsets in island countries such as Palau, the Cook Islands and the Solomon Islands, mainly providing SMS services in the early stage, and will be supplemented with voice functions in the future as constellation deployments and technical capabilities are upgraded. In addition, SpaceX will also use the "Starlink" constellation as the basis for the new large-area antenna version of the enhanced "Starlink" satellite as a "space base station" In December 2023, it obtained a short-term license from the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) for the antenna function test of its V2.0Mini satellite with mobile phone direct connection capability, and will launch the first batch of mobile phone direct connection satellites in 2024, and plans to provide users with short message services in 2024 and voice call and data transmission services in 2025.
Figure 3 BlueWalker-3 satellite
In addition to satellite operators, mobile phone and chip manufacturers are also actively promoting the research and development of satellite direct connection equipment. IN FEBRUARY 2023, SAMSUNG LAUNCHED A SMARTPHONE SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS SOLUTION THAT WILL UTILIZE A NEW 5G NON-TERRESTRIAL NETWORK (NTN) COMPLIANT MODEM FOR SMARTPHONE SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS. In January 2023, Qualcomm unveiled its Snapdragon Satellite chip, which supports two-way communication with the Iridium constellation, and announced in November 2023 that it would develop a chip based on the 5GNTN standard.
3 New progress has been made in high-orbit and high-performance satellites,
High, medium and low rail operators have strengthened cooperation and exploration
The design capacity of high-throughput satellites is moving towards the order of Tbit/s.
On-orbit reliability problems are frequent
In 2023, the design capacity of a single global high-throughput satellite (HTS) will successfully exceed the Tbit/s level. On May 1, Viasat launched the first satellite of the Viasat-3 system, Viasat-3 Americas, which is the most powerful communication satellite currently launched, with an expected capacity of up to 1 Tbit/s, and uses the latest technologies such as the largest reflector antenna in orbit and an ultra-long telescopic boom, which has attracted global attention (see Figure 4). In addition to this satellite, Hughes has also successfully launched the Jupiter-3 high-throughput satellite, with a capacity of 500 Gbit/s per satellite, and broke the global record for the launch quality of commercial geostationary orbit (GEO) satellites (see Figure 5).
Figure 4 Viasat-3 satellite
Figure 5 Jupiter-3 satellite
However, although a number of high-performance satellites will be put into orbit in 2023, reliability problems are frequent. In July 2023, Viasat-3Americas announced that the Viasat-3Americans satellite had failed to deploy the reflector antenna in orbit, and in October it said that the problem would cause the satellite's available capacity in orbit to be reduced to 10% of the expected 100Gbit/ In August 2023, the International Mobile Satellite Corporation (Inmarsat) announced that the Inmarsat-6F2 satellite launched in February also suffered a power subsystem failure during the electric propulsion lifting process, and the power supply modules of the four O3bmPower satellites also "tripped", which will reduce the operational life and capacity of the satellite. The above-mentioned failure problems have had a significant impact on the service promotion plans and subsequent system deployment plans of various operators, and satellite operators have also repeatedly filed claims with the space insurance community, with the Viasat-3Americans single satellite claim amounting to $420 million, and the large insurance claims have led to significant losses for the space insurance industry, and industry insiders said that related problems "may lead to some underwriters withdrawing from the space market."
Traditional operators actively respond to low-orbit competition,
The joint operation of high, medium and low rail has become the mainstream trend
The large-scale deployment of low-earth orbit satellite Internet constellations has greatly impacted the competitive landscape in the field of communication satellites. In recent years, traditional high-orbit operators are facing a variety of challenges such as supply and demand changes, bandwidth cost reduction, and new technology development, and have used a variety of measures to cope with fierce market competition.
On the one hand, satellite operators are actively integrating their business through mergers and acquisitions. In 2023, Eutelsat will officially complete the acquisition of China Mobile Satellite Corporation for US$7.3 billion, which will integrate spectrum, integrate high and low satellites and terrestrial 5G facilities to create a global high-throughput hybrid space architecture and terrestrial network, and provide safer, higher-speed, low-latency and low-cost communication services for government, enterprise, aviation, maritime and other users The second-generation constellation will jointly develop a terrestrial network for the upgraded constellation and exert synergies. On the other hand, mainstream operators are also launching multi-track solutions through their own hybrid networks or cooperation. SES is developing the O3bmPower medium-orbit constellation and high-orbit high-throughput satellites to provide multi-orbit, high-capacity, low-latency and flexible communications for terminal network operators and end users. The constellation and the existing high-orbit and high-throughput broadband systems will create a distributed and flexible global broadband architecture, Hughes will cooperate with one network company to launch communication applications and gateway systems suitable for high and low orbit convergence systems, and Intelsat will also focus on satellite mobile services and cooperate with one network company in the aviation market to develop and launch airborne aviation terminals compatible with the "one network" satellite network in 2023.
4 The capabilities of military communication systems continue to increase,
The ability of the low-orbit constellation has become the new focus of the layout
In 2023, a total of 5 military communications satellite launches will be carried out abroad: the United States has carried out 3 launches, launched the Continuous Broadcast Enhanced Satellite Communications-2 (CBAS-2) satellite in January, and launched a total of 19 transport layer 0 satellites in two batches in April and September, completing the deployment of the 0 stage test constellation (the remaining 1 satellite is stored on the ground), Russia has launched 1 Olympus-K2/Ray-5X (Olimp-K2/ Luch-5X) and one Syracuse-4B satellite was launched in Europe. In addition, Germany has launched the HeinrichHertz communications test satellite, which carries a military communications payload to assist in military communications.
Multinational deployment of high-orbit military communication satellites,
Strengthen the combat capability of backbone systems
In recent years, the field of foreign military communication satellites is in a stage of continuous change, and the United States, Russia, Europe and other major military aerospace or regional long-term layout of the active system capability upgrade and subsequent model continuous development, in 2023, the United States, Russia, and Europe have all launched high-orbit military communication satellites to further supplement the combat capability of the backbone system. The United States and Russia each launched one data relay satellite; France launched the Siracus-4B satellite, which will provide the French armed forces with greater communication capacity, flexibility, and coverage; and Germany has also launched the "Heinrich-Hertz" dual-use satellite, which will carry out demonstration and verification of a variety of new technologies, and will carry a military payload on board, and its military purpose is mainly to provide special satellite communication services in the Ku-band and Ka-band for land, sea, and air mobile platforms. In addition, many countries are actively promoting the deployment of next-generation communication satellite capabilities, the US Space Force has issued a draft tender for the next-generation protection strategic communication satellite "Evolved Strategic Satellite Communication System" (ESS) project, and the United Kingdom is also actively promoting the next-generation Skynet-6 satellite project with the British Ministry of Defense as the main body, and awarded the "Skynet" project operation contract in February 2023 to ensure the user management and safe operation of communication satellites, and the new "Skynet" system is expected to be officially put into operation in 2028.
Major powers are actively engaged in large-scale constellation construction,
The deployment of the first military low-orbit communication test constellation in the United States was completed
In the context of the accelerated evolution of the global space military competition pattern and the rise of the construction of low-orbit broadband communication constellations, the capabilities of low-orbit large-scale constellations, such as large capacity, low latency, and global coverage, as well as the construction ideas of batch development and rapid deployment, provide new ideas and new solutions for the application of military combat communication support.
In the future, the military low-orbit communication constellation will become the backbone and core architecture of the U.S. top-level combat concept of "joint all-domain operations", and efficiently serve the upgrading of military combat capabilities. In 2018, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) launched the "Blackjack" pilot research project, and in 2019, the Space Development Agency (SDA) proposed the development of the "Flexible Large-Scale Combat Space System" (PWSA, formerly known as the "Defense Space System", also known as the "Seven-Layer System"), which will integrate and integrate the results of the "Blackjack" project, and become the low-orbit equipment that the US military will truly put into combat use in the future, and it is also the core of the US military's low-orbit capacity building. In 2023, the size of the U.S. military's "Black Jack" constellation will be reduced from 20 to 4, and all satellite deployments have been completed. In April and September 2023, SDA completed two launch missions of the "Massive Elastic Combat Space System" Phase 0 test satellite, launching a total of 19 "Transport Layer 0" communication test satellites, and retaining one satellite for ground backup, completing the deployment of the "Transport Layer 0" test constellation (see Figure 6). The constellation will serve as the "simplest system" of the "large-scale elastic combat space system", which will be mainly used for "combat personnel experience" to demonstrate and verify system capabilities such as inter-satellite interoperability and Link-16 tactical communication. In three tests in November, the Space Development Agency has successfully completed the first space-to-ground Link-16 communication test based on the "Transport Layer 0 Stage" satellite, laying an important technical foundation for the construction of the follow-up system.
Fig.6 Developed by Loma (LM).
"Transport Layer 0" satellites
Driven by the development of the global commercial low-orbit large-scale constellation, the Russian government has also begun to pay attention to the important potential of the development of low-orbit satellite networks, and on the basis of the development of large elliptical orbit and geostationary orbit satellites, it will supplement the communication capabilities of medium- and low-orbit satellites, and plan to build a multi-orbit multi-functional integrated constellation "Sfera". According to the latest plan, the "sphere" will be composed of a communication system and a remote sensing system, and 388 satellites will be tentatively deployed, of which 162 have been approved. In September and October 2023, Roscosmos signed two contracts with Reshetnev to develop five prototype satellites, 132 Marathon low-orbit IoT data transmission satellites and six Racing Boats under the Sphere project In November 2023, the first Skif-D demonstration verification satellite completed flight tests.
In addition, in February 2023, the European Parliament officially approved the proposal for the construction of the sovereign constellation "Satellite Resilience, Interconnection and Security Infrastructure" (IRIS2). The constellation is Europe's third major satellite program after the Galileo satellite navigation system and the Copernicus Earth observation system, and is planned to consist of 170 satellites in high, medium and low orbits, with deployment starting in 2025 and providing secure communications services to European governments, supplemented by commercial services in 2027. The entire project, with a planned investment of 6 billion euros, will be led by the European Union and the European Space Agency, and will be built in a public-private partnership mode, in order to ensure the security and control of all key technologies and supply chains, the EU will strictly review the background and qualifications of the participating companies.
further strengthen the integrated use of commercial satellite capabilities,
Enhance military replenishment capabilities in space
In recent years, commercial satellite systems such as "Starlink" have been deeply involved in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, providing Ukraine with key battlefield situation information and information communication support, fully proving the effectiveness and practicability of commercial space forces in combat operations, and being highly valued and recognized by the US military. The United States has made the use of the innovation and technological capabilities of commercial space companies a priority of its national space policy, and in 2023, it has made it clear that the concept of space capability development will shift from "prioritizing the construction of specialized systems" to "prioritizing the procurement of commercial capabilities". In June 2023, the Space Systems Command of the U.S. Aerospace Forces underwent a new round of organizational restructuring to establish the Commercial Space Office (COMSO) and set up the Commercial Satellite Communications Office (CSCO) to coordinate the procurement of commercial satellite communications services for the whole army. remote sensing, a draft revision of a broader commercial services procurement strategy is underway.
In addition, the Commercial Satellite Communications Office is exploring the use of new large-scale long-term contracts, one-stop services to facilitate contract management, and improve service flexibility through multi-system integration. In July 2023, COCOMT awarded "Indefinite Delivery Date/Indefinite Quantity" (IDIQ) contracts for Massive Low Earth Orbit (PLEO) space-based services to 16 (to be increased to 20) satellite service providers for a total value of $900 million, marking the first time that COCOMT has awarded large long-term service procurement contracts to multiple commercial satellite companies and multiple satellite systems. Driven by a number of policies, the cooperation between the emerging low-orbit constellation and the US military will continue to deepen. SpaceX has launched the "Starshield" business specifically for the government and the military based on "Starlink" technology and industrial capabilities, and under the overall framework of the PLEOIDIQ contract, "Starshield" won the first service contract of the US Department of Defense in September, with a one-year contract worth $70 million. In October 2023, the U.S. Army's 5th Security Force Assistance Brigade announced that it had received four sets of "Star Shield" systems, which will be deployed at the Pacific Multinational Joint Readiness Center in the Indo-Pacific Theater to use "Star Shield" during exercises and drills to provide communications replenishment capabilities in the event of military system failure.
5 Conclusion
In 2023, the field of communication satellites will continue to develop rapidly. The performance of high-orbit satellites continues to evolve, but the maturity of new technologies has yet to be verified, the competition in the development of low-orbit satellite Internet has intensified, the low-orbit constellations have shown a trend of normalization of batch deployment, governments have accelerated their access, many mainstream constellations have entered a new stage of deployment, and substantial progress has been made in the field of mobile phone direct connection to satellites. In the future, the joint operation of high, medium and low orbit constellations will become the mainstream trend, and the industry will further promote the development of satellite-ground integration and space-ground integration in the field of satellite communications, and accelerate the development of the B5G/6G era.