This point of view is very novel, and this article will have an open-ended discussion on this point of view.
Is there a possibility that A shares will be bullish for 10 years?
Perhaps, 99.99% of retail investors believe that it is impossible for A-shares to have a long bull.
But in essence, it is entirely possible for A-shares to be long-term if they really want to achieve long-term bullishness.
Today, I will talk to you about several necessary foundations for A-shares if they want to achieve long-term bullishness.
Foundation 1: The underlying chips are bound to the national fortune.
Most people may not understand what this sentence means.
In fact, it is not difficult to understand, it is the bargaining chips in this market, which must be bound to people's livelihood for a long time.
What is People's Livelihood?
In fact, it is very easy to understand that social security funds, pensions, these are people's livelihoods.
If a round of long cattle is to make money for capital, they will not do charity, and they may not necessarily contribute to society.
If they are all leeks, that bull market will only make the rich richer and the poor poorer.
This kind of play of harvesting leeks is destined to have no slow cattle and long cows.
The bottom of Changniu is the same, and the funds that are most closely related to people's livelihood are put into the market and bound to the chips at the bottom.
So, if there is to be a long bull and a long time to exchange chips at the bottom, this must be done.
If you don't hand over the low-level chips to these funds that should be paid, the most basic underlying logic of Changniu will not be established.
The opening of the nine articles of the country is actually to allow a greater proportion of these funds bound to the national fortune to enter the stock market.
Basis 2: Perfect dividend system and positive cash flow.
The positive cycle of the market, the bottom of which comes from dividends.
Perhaps retail investors think that dividends are not important, as long as the stock price rises.
But the most important living water in this market is actually the dividends of listed companies from the bottom.
Dividends may seem like the market value of the account will not change, but the cash will grow.
That is, the money for dividends, in fact, is real money, which must be transferred from the accounts of listed companies to the accounts of all shareholders.
The dividend system is the key to ensuring that funds can be retained in the stock market for a long time.
Funds have a long-term holding cost, and this cost must be covered by cash flow from dividends.
In the high-quality market, dividends can also be used to cover the blood of financing.
When a market, the annual dividend funds are far greater than the market's blood drawn, then the market will enter a positive cash flow.
In addition to the IPO of A-shares, there are also major shareholders who have reduced their holdings, and the blood loss rate is too fast.
Moreover, most of the dividend funds flowed back to the major shareholders of state-owned assets, and this part of the state-owned dividends did not re-flow into the stock market in the end.
Therefore, the dividend system is not just as simple as ST without dividends, but also has a long way to go.
Basis 3: Perfect listing and delisting system.
The delisting is also the only way on the slow cattle road.
There have been quite a few A-share stocks delisted in the past two years, and dozens of them have been delisted every year.
However, compared with the volume of 5,000 A-share companies, compared with the companies queuing up to be listed, the proportion of delisted listed companies is still too low.
Listing and delisting is a cycle of survival of the fittest.
What is the value of every company going public if it ends up staying in the market for many years, but not contributing anything to the market?
There is little point in those companies that lose money for 2 years, and then rely on selling assets to avoid losses and survive in the A-share market by various financial means.
Shell speculation is essentially a game, and the losers are basically retail investors.
Okay stay, garbage get out, so that the market will be healthy, and there will be more funds willing to invest.
Basis 4: Retail investors are declining and institutional investors are increasing.
Behind the fast bull, there is a large influx of retail investors, but the slow bull is completely different.
A slow bull market requires less retail investors and more money for institutional investment.
The proportion of retail investors doing long-term is actually relatively small, and the vast majority of them are mainly short-term trading.
The bottom of the long bull is the lock-up of a large number of long-term funds, pursuing the growth of value.
Therefore, almost all the stock markets in the big bull market are de-retailed, and they are dominated by institutional funds.
If institutions want to play with each other, it is actually quite difficult, and the final path will gradually converge, that is, the company that holds the head.
When the proportion of retail investors in A-shares is reduced to less than 10%, the foundation of slow bulls will naturally be there.
Basis 5: The head company is clear and maintains stable growth.
There is also a bottom layer in the slow bull market, which is the need for high-quality listed companies.
For example, Moutai, a listed company whose growth rate can not be high, but can grow steadily every year, is a standard head company.
Of course, tech companies are likely to be better off and have better growth prospects than their big consumer companies.
But behind the slow bull, there is stability overriding everything, rather than ups and downs.
Behind the long bull of U.S. stocks, there are two types of bull stocks.
One is a large consumer company such as Coca-Cola, which has dominated a certain segment for decades and has grown steadily.
One is big tech companies such as Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, Nvidia, Google, and Intel, which are not only relatively stable, but also have growth beyond expectations.
If there can be a batch of companies like A-shares, then the foundation of slow cattle will naturally be there.
After all, behind a bull market is not a bubble, but stable performance.
Fundamentals 6: Reduce malicious market speculation and control overall volatility.
The last point is that the market still has to crack down on malicious speculation.
Some people say that there is no money-making effect without speculation, but if this trend of speculating in demon stocks is maintained for a long time, then the market will never be on the right track.
There is no problem at all with issuing a risk warning letter as soon as the market rises, which is healthy and needs to put an end to speculation.
The final outcome of a bubble stock is already doomed, so it is a big mistake to let it grow.
Only by turning the rising wind of speculation into the wind of investment growth can the market change the situation of short bulls and long bears.
Otherwise, the market that can only be completed in a few years will be speculated in half a year and a year, so how can it be slow?
In the end, it was not a big money speculation that let retail investors take over.
Why did the overseas market relax the price limit limit, because in the institution-dominated market, funds will not speculate indiscriminately, and there are not so many fools to take over.
Ten years of bull market, many people can't think of it.
The reason why there has been no long bull before is because the infrastructure construction at the bottom is not solid at all.
To put it bluntly, our market has been used for 30 years, and has experienced 50, 80, or even 100 years of time for others.
Various tools, continuous trial and error, have also caused a situation where the market is short and bearish is long.
These are all the necessary ways to go through, and the stock markets all over the world are much the same, because behind them are human nature.
The reason why the slow bull market will appear is because the market will eventually complete the de-retailization.
When this group of retail investors gets old, institutional funds enter the market, and the convergence of capital attributes will definitely cause a slow bull in the group.
In the slow cattle market all over the world, the underlying logic is almost the same.
This also means that most retail investors may not be able to wait for that day to come, and only a small number of those who will board the ark will be on the ark after all.
In the past two years, the system has begun to be gradually improved, but there is still a long way to go before the above six foundations are completed.
Financial power is certainly not a dream, but it is also a long journey.