Looking back at Sir Alex Ferguson's retirement 11 years ago, it is strange that his decision was both unexpected and entirely justified.
In 2013, Ferguson had done everything he could. He led United to 20 league titles in their history, two ahead of Liverpool. He has beaten every title rival United has faced, including Blackburn, Newcastle, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City. It was time, but no one thought that the 71-year-old 13-time champion would come to an end.
Now, for the most successful manager in English football since Alex Alex Ferguson, it may be time for a change.
If Manchester City win the Premier League this season, then Guardiola will basically have taken what he should have achieved at Manchester City. This will be Manchester City's fourth consecutive Premier League title and the first time in English league history that a club has won four consecutive titles. Huddersfield, Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United have all won three in a row, and four in a row would be a unique achievement.
Pep Guardiola has a number of other historic achievements in English football. He led the team to a Premier League title with a record 100 points, and he won the first domestic treble in England's history. Last season, he won the second 'true' treble in the history of English football. Not only did he win trophies, but he also won them relentlessly like never before. With just one more title, Pep Guardiola's domination of English football will be complete.
What are the benefits of staying in the role? Of course, it will be a five-game winning winning streak, but this milestone is far less significant than being the first team to win four in a row. A second Champions League trophy is certainly worth looking forward to, but defending it is even more meaningful, and in the post-UEFA Champions League era, only Real Madrid have achieved it. Of course, Real Madrid ended City's dream of defending the title in the quarter-finals last month.
As far as Guardiola's "legacy" is concerned, the risk of staying in office is even greater. If Arsenal continue to be City's main rivals next year and beat them to the title, a defeat to a former assistant would have detracted Pep Guardiola's points. Conversely, if Pep Guardiola leaves, Manchester City falls out and Mikel Arteta's Arsenal win the title, it will give Pep Guardiola extra points.
If someone else beats Pep Guardiola to win the title, such as incoming Liverpool boss Ané Slot, then perhaps Pep Guardiola will immediately look a little out of place. Leaving after winning this season, he will be invincible.
There are other aspects to consider. Beautiful football, opinion. Even at the peak of Barca, not everyone liked Pep Guardiola's pass-and-control play. But it's widely accepted that Pep Guardiola's side usually play open, spectator football, with plenty of creative players. He tried to take football in a different direction, based more on technique and tactics.
However, over the past few seasons, he has strengthened his defence in order to qualify for the Champions League, regularly fielding a four-centre-back and battering rams up front. It's a far cry from the futuristic football he was once known for. For 5 seasons in a row, the team has become more and more functional, and it may already be a bit tedious.
While Pep Guardiola has expressed confidence that City will be exempt from 115 charges of alleged financial irregularities between 2009 and 2018, he must have feared the pressure of City's convictions. If the verdict had been handed down after he had left office, it would not have been his problem.
Of course, Ferguson's departure in 2013 was actually the second time he announced his departure. The first was midway through the 2001/02 season, when he announced that he would be leaving United at the end of the season. He later admitted that it was a mistake because it took the players out of motivation. United's form was affected and with the prospect of nothing on all fronts, Ferguson reversed his mind and ended up staying at United for another 11 years.
Pep Guardiola must learn from the experience of Alex Ferguson and Jurgen Klopp. Jurgen Klopp announced his departure at the end of the season and is now in the midst of a six-month farewell run. Announcing your departure abruptly at the end of the season is the best course of action. Similar managers in English football have often retired in the bustle, including Alex Ferguson and Bob Paisley, who retired after Liverpool won their sixth title.
Pep Guardiola has publicly discussed his ambitions to take charge of the national team in the future, and leaving this summer will provide him with ample options. If he wants, he has two years to lead the team to prepare for the 2026 World Cup, which will be hosted mainly by the United States. Pep Guardiola clearly has a certain affection for the United States, having taken a one-year sabbatical in New York between Barcelona and Bayern. This summer, he can choose any national team in the world. But next summer, with only one year to go before the World Cup, the national football associations may be less willing to make changes.
Of course, Pep Guardiola has several reasons to stay. Pep Guardiola clearly feels that City's environment is less stressful than that of Barcelona or Bayern, and there are no obvious signs that he has experienced fatigue in recent months. He and his family are happy living in Manchester. He has a good salary and his club will be the favourites again at the start of the 2024-25 season. He may also be reluctant to leave his club without an obvious successor. In parallel worlds, Mikel Arteta could remain his assistant and be ready to replace him, or veteran Manchester United captain Vincent Kompany could perform better at Burnley as the most promising successor.
However, despite Pep Guardiola having one year left on his contract, few at Manchester City will object to him leaving on his own terms. At this stage, Guardiola has seen everything, completed everything, won everything. The managers seem to care more than ever about their legacy.
If Pep Guardiola cares about his legacy, the wise move may be to retreat.