The increase in spring market activity pushed the asking price close to a new record
- The average listing price of listed properties rose 1.1% (+£4,207) to £372,324 this month, just £570 below the record in May 2023, while house prices are currently growing at +1.7% y/y, the highest level in 12 months:
- A key factor behind the near-record growth in average home prices is the high-end residential, top-of-the-line residential market, with this year's price growth for high-end homes being the strongest start since 2014;
- However, the market remains price-sensitive and operates at a different rate, with slower price and activity growth in the more loan-reliant first- and second-time homebuyer markets.
- Compared to the same period last year, the number of new sellers entering the market increased by 12%, the number of sales closed increased by 13%, and both seller and buyer activity rebounded from last year's sluggish spring:
- The largest increase in activity was in large homes, top high-end properties, with an 18% increase in the number of new sellers and a 20% increase in the number of negotiated sales compared to last year;
- Owners took action, and on Thursday, March 28, the number of new sellers entering the market hit the highest number in a single day so far in 2024 and the third-largest increase since August 2020;
- There seems to be a window of opportunity for action for those considering a trade-in, with a summer sporting scene and a possible general election to follow, which would cause more buyer distractions than usual.
The average asking price for new sellers rose 1.1% (+£4,207) to £372,324 this month, with monthly house prices rising sharply, but in line with the 10-year average year-on-year. Currently, the average price of properties entering the market is only £570 below the record price of £372,894 in May 2023, while the average annual house price growth rate has risen to 1.7%, the highest in 12 months. A key driver behind the near-historical growth in average asking prices is the large home, the top residential market, and the strongest year for high-end properties since 2014. Overall, it remains a big improvement in the first four months of the year compared to 2023, with increased activity in both buyers and sellers in the market this spring. However, real estate agents report that high loan rates continue to expand buyers' affordability despite rising home prices and heightened general optimism. The market remains very sensitive to house prices and operates at different rates in many segments and sectors, with slower growth in house prices and sales activity in the more loan-reliant mass-market first-time and second-time homebuyers segments.
"At the beginning of the year, the market at the top of the ladder continued to drive market pricing, with a market driver that is typically less sensitive to changes in lending rates and more well-funded buyers. While some buyers in various markets will feel that their affordability has improved over last year due to wage growth and stable home prices, others will be more affected by cost-of-living challenges and have higher interest rates on loans than expected. Despite these factors, this year's start to the year has been positive compared to the quieter start of 2023. However, the intermediary report said that the market is still very sensitive to prices and that despite the current optimism, these are not the conditions underpinning materiality. Price increases. Sellers who are keen to ensure that they are selling still need to price according to the local market reality and avoid being too ambitious at the beginning of their marketing in order to give themselves the best chance of finding a buyer. ”
Rightmove 房产科学总监蒂姆·班尼特（Tim Bannister）
As the market rebounded from last year's sluggish spring, the number of new sellers entering the market increased by 12% compared to the same period last year, and the number of sales closed increased by 13%. Much of this activity took place in the high-end property market, where the number of new sellers increased by 18% year-on-year and the number of negotiated sales increased by 20% in the high-end property market, where four-bedroom detached homes and large properties of five bedrooms and above increased. Real estate agents report that after months of very limited property supply, there is more choice in the market, with buyers who were previously on the sidelines entering the market, creating a cycle of more new listings and leading to more sales activity.
In contrast, activity has been slower in the mass-market, the more loan-reliant first-time home buyer and second-home buyer market, which accounts for the majority of transactions in the overall market. Compared to last year, both marketplaces saw a 10% increase in the number of new sellers, while the number of closed sales increased by 9% and 13%, respectively. Lending rates have remained high for longer than some expected at the start of the year, which could have a bigger impact on the movers in these sectors.
Overall, despite more challenging buyer conditions, the number of agreed sales that have now been agreed is unchanged from 2019, with the average five-year loan rate now at 4.84%, up from 2.45% in April 2019, but the average home price is up 22%. However, overall average wages increased by 27% during this period, slightly outpacing house price growth, increasing buyers' affordability.
Last week, Thursday, March 28, the number of new sellers pouring into the market hit the highest number in a single day so far in 2024 and the third-largest number since August 2020, behind Boxing Day in 2022 and 2023, boosted by buyer and seller activity this spring. Many sellers are keen to capture buyers' attention over the Easter weekend.
"Summer holidays are often a distraction for some buyers, who pause their purchases and head abroad or to the UK for a holiday. In addition, the 2024 European Football Championship and this summer's Olympics, as well as the possible general elections in the second half of the year, will be more disruptive to buyers than usual. There seems to be an enticing window of opportunity for those who are considering buying a home before these disruptions arrive. While affordability remains very tight, real estate and loan market conditions remain stable and buyers have plenty of options, with many sellers recognising that now is the best time to negotiate prices to reach an agreement. The increase in activity suggests that many replacement buyers have already started to take action. ”
Rightmove 房产科学总监蒂姆·班尼特（Tim Bannister）
A real estate agent's point of view
"We have seen an increase in 'for sale' and 'sold' signs in most regions, and our own data suggests that sales in the first quarter of this year were successful. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, the volume increased by 20%. There was also an increase in new listings, but at a lower percentage, indicating that the gap between supply and demand was starting to narrow. For those buyers who want to trade, now is the ideal time to put their plans into action. Inflation fell to 3.2% in March, suggesting that the Bank of England should cut interest rates sooner rather than later. ”
"Sellers who are looking to sell quickly should continue to be realistic about home prices. The months leading up to the election, which will likely be autumn, are likely to see a short-term halt in market activity. The outcome of the election – and its impact on house prices and economic activity – is far from certain. ”
Leaders Romans Group 全国销售董事总经理凯文·肖（Kevin Shaw）
"2024 is off to a good start, with more properties on the market and sales increasing along the way. Heading into the end of spring, this is expected to persist as inflation falls and the possibility of a base rate cut is on the horizon. Price sensitivity remains an issue, and sellers need realistic pricing strategies and manage their expectations. The health of the real estate market is primarily measured by the number of properties listed and sold, and it is great to see that these indicators have improved compared to last year. ”
法夫地产 (Fife Properties) 董事总经理吉姆·帕克 (Jim Parker)