On April 28, 2024, The Hindu reported that at present, India's trade in goods imported from China has exceeded $100 billion, while in the 2018-2019 fiscal year, India only imported $70 billion of goods from China. In just a few years, the scale of Sino-Indian trade has directly exceeded 100 billion US dollars, which has to surprise the outside world, because under the leadership of Prime Minister Modi, India has always wanted to follow the example of the United States to achieve "de-Chinaization", want to get rid of the threat of China's supply chain, and build an independent industrial system, value chain and industrial chain controlled by India. Unexpectedly, this announcement published by The Hindu newspaper directly tore everyone's imagination of India, and India's dependence on Chinese industry is increasing, rather than weakening. According to the report, India's dependence on Chinese industry, which was previously 25 percent, has now increased to 30 percent, and part of the conventional wisdom is that India's electronics are mainly imported from China. Today, this report directly tells the world that in the four major fields of machinery manufacturing, textiles, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals, India's main raw materials and key components are imported from China, which directly shatters the outside world's illusory imagination of India's industrialization.
Nowadays, the scale of economic and trade between China and India is rising, and the scale of India's economic and trade imports from China has reached $100 billion. On the whole, the amount of economic and trade between China and India has been rising, and the scale of economic and trade has also been rising, which can indeed become the ballast stone of Sino-Indian relations, but there is still a long way to go if we want to ease or even improve the relations between China and India.
First, although India has imported up to US$100 billion worth of raw materials and key components from China in fiscal years 2023 to 2024, this can only show that China and India do have economic complementarity at this stage when India's economy is not fully developed and its industrial system is not yet perfect. The simplest example is that taking the mobile phone industry as an example, at present, India's mobile phone industry is basically supported by Chinese mobile phones, and China's Xiaomi, VIVO, and OPPO continue to invest in India, and continue to localize in accordance with the requirements of the Indian government. India has not yet cultivated its own strong mobile phone industry, in this case, India's dependence on Chinese mobile phones and other electronic products is indeed very high, the current problem is that India has not been willing to be in this position, has been trying to advance from the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain to the upstream, at that time, the economic complementarity of China and India may be reduced.
As it stands, although the scale of economic and trade between China and India is complementary, China and India are both populous countries and are also industrializing, and now China is one step ahead and India is one step behind. In this context, the long-term complementarity of the economic structures of China and India depends mainly on whether China can maintain its overwhelming advantage over India. If China can always maintain this posture, the economic and industrial complementarity between China and India may be enhanced, if it is still like today, India imports a large number of raw materials and key components from China, and only carries out simple assembly, India will never be satisfied with this status, once India really takes off, the economic and trade friction between China and India may increase. From the perspective of the economic development of China and India, the current situation of economic complementarity may exist for a long time, but if the scale of economic and trade between China and India becomes the ballast stone of China-India relations, China must work hard and make active efforts.
Second, although the scale of economic and trade between China and India has exceeded $100 billion, it is difficult to make Sino-Indian relations better. The 1962 border clash did hurt India, but India never mentioned the main reason why China taught India a lesson. In 1959, after China put down the rebellion in Tibet, India has been dictating China's internal affairs and always harboring ambitions for Chinese territory, which eventually led India to step on China's red lines, so India has attracted China's vigorous and limited counterattack. This is the ins and outs of the Sino-Indian border conflict, in short, India likes to play but is very vegetable, and in the end it was taught a lesson by China.
India's ruling party has been able to reap the benefits and gain votes through this narrative, and at the same time, it has also incited populism in India, which has also made it very challenging for India's ruling party to change its China policy. In fact, India's tragic narrative of the events of 1962 has put India in a very embarrassing situation, which makes it really difficult for India to reverse this situation in a short period of time and achieve comprehensive friendship with China. Although China has always stressed that the Sino-Indian border issue is only a minor issue, for India, this is a lever to leverage Sino-Indian relations, and as long as India does not abandon this concept, it will indeed be difficult to make Sino-Indian relations better.
Third, the Sino-US game, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the changes in the world in a century have made India see its own value, and the United States' suppression of China and China's counterattack on the United States have made India's role in the Sino-US game more and more important. To a certain extent, the United States regards India as the biggest variable in Sino-US relations, and if India can completely surrender to the United States and be tied to the United States, the United States and India will be able to form an east-west attack on China, and China will be attacked from the belly. Nevertheless, India knows that it is a neighbor with China, and no matter how bad the relationship between the two countries is, India cannot directly turn against China because it is not in India's national interests. As long as the United States still does not give up its encirclement and suppression of China, it will be relatively difficult to make Sino-Indian relations better.
In any case, as long as the scale of economic and trade between China and India continues to expand, and the economies of China and India become entangled with each other, there will be less and less room for India to make a living and seek benefits through this activity. After all, in today's globalized world, the economy is indeed the ballast stone for the development of bilateral relations, and this is true of Sino-US relations, and even more so of China-India relations.