On April 30, the Ministry of Natural Resources officially issued a document stating that cities with high pressure on commercial housing inventory and a long decommissioning cycle will suspend the transfer of new commercial residential land.
On the same day, the General Office of the Ministry of Natural Resources issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Supply of Residential Land in 2024" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"), requiring the strict implementation of the residential land supply mechanism corresponding to the de-industrialization cycle to curb the unreasonable growth of residential land supply in some cities. Among them, cities with a de-commercialized residential period of more than 36 months should suspend the transfer of new commercial residential land.
In this regard, the person in charge of the Department of Natural Resources Development and Utilization of the Ministry of Natural Resources said that the "Notice" actively connects with the demand for housing construction, strictly implements the "supply based on demand", makes overall arrangements for the supply of residential land throughout the year, and promotes the healthy and stable supply and demand of the real estate market.
"Cities with a de-conversion period of more than 36 months should suspend the transfer of incremental residential land"
The "Notice" requires that the supply of new commercial residential land should be reasonably controlled, and all localities should optimize the scale, layout and structure of commercial office land and residential land in a timely manner according to market demand, and improve the residential land supply adjustment mechanism corresponding to the commercial residential de-conversion cycle and residential land stock.
Among them, for cities with a de-conversion period of more than 36 months, the transfer of new commercial residential land should be suspended, and at the same time, great efforts should be made to revitalize the stock until the de-conversion period of commercial housing falls below 36 months; The data on the de-commercialization cycle of commercial housing and the revitalization of the stock of commercial residential land in various regions are dynamically updated on a quarterly basis.
The above-mentioned person in charge said: "In recent years, the Ministry of Natural Resources has established a two-way adjustment mechanism for the supply of residential land corresponding to the cycle of commercial housing and land stock, requiring the supply of residential land to be arranged according to the city's policies. The "Notice" has made further arrangements for this, requiring all localities to adjust the supply of commercial residential land in a timely manner in strict accordance with the latest commercial residential de-conversion cycle in the process of implementing land supply within the year. ”
At the same time, we will continue to vigorously guarantee the supply of land for affordable housing. Among them, all localities are required to give priority to the land supply plan according to the affordable housing construction plan, and should be guaranteed. It is necessary to take multiple measures at the same time to make overall plans to revitalize all kinds of stock land for the construction of affordable housing. For the residential land involved in the project included in the urban village reconstruction plan, which is really used for the construction of resettlement housing, priority should be given to ensuring the supply of land;
In addition, the "Notice" also requires to increase the disposal of idle land and strengthen risk prevention. Strictly implement the relevant requirements for the resumption of residential land, and all localities should rely on the dynamic monitoring and supervision system of the land market, grasp the base number of residential land that has not started construction for more than two years within the time limit, continue to update it dynamically, formulate a type-by-type and step-by-step disposal plan and organize its implementation, establish a ledger, and implement sales management. For idle residential land that has not started construction for more than two years within the time limit, it should be recovered in accordance with the law. In this regard, the person in charge said: "This move is to strengthen the revitalization of the stock of residential land, increase the disposal of idle land, require all localities to formulate disposal plans in a timely manner and organize their implementation, and actively prevent the real estate market and the government's hidden debt risks." ”
Among the 100 cities, 41 cities have a de-urbanization period of more than 36 months, and most of them are third- and fourth-tier cities
According to the statistics of Shanghai E-House Research Institute, as of March, the inventory-to-sales ratio of newly built commercial residential buildings in 100 cities across the country was 25.3 months, which means that according to the current sales speed, it will take 25.3 months to digest the inventory of new houses on the market. According to historical data and the construction relationship of real estate "development and pre-sale", the reasonable value of the inventory-to-sales ratio is defined as 12-14 months. This shows that the current destocking cycle is obviously high, which is easy to cause problems to the destocking and capital security of real estate enterprises.
At present, the Ministry of Natural Resources has not directly published the list of cities with a decommissioning period of more than 36 months, so it cites the inventory-to-sales ratio of the decommissioning period as a reference. According to the statistics of the Shanghai E-House Research Institute, as of March, among the sample cities of 100 cities, there are 41 cities with a decommissioning cycle of more than 36 months, most of which are third- and fourth-tier cities, among which Shaoguan, Xining, Zhoushan, Luoyang, Harbin, Jiashan, Jinjiang, Quanzhou, Tangshan and Jiangyin, such cities generally have a decommissioning cycle of more than 3 years. In addition, cities with a decontamination period of more than 36 months include Fuzhou and Wuhan.
A list of the cities in the key 100 cities with a de-industrialization period of more than 36 months
Note: The inventory-to-sales ratio of the destocking cycle = the inventory of newly built commercial residential buildings in the current month / the average transaction area of newly built commercial residential buildings in the last six months. Data caliber: In principle, inventory, transaction, supply and other data cover urban areas and suburbs, but do not include suburban counties.
Data source: Shanghai E-House Research Institute
At the same time, the 10 cities with low decontamination cycles among the 100 cities are Shanghai, Zhengzhou, Shenyang, Nanchang, Zhuhai, Jinan, Sanya, Hangzhou, Zhongshan and Chengdu, and the overall decontamination cycle of such cities is about 12 months.
Zhang Hongwei, founder of Jingjian Consulting, analyzed: "The need to continue to supply land is measured by the de-industrialization cycle of 36 months, even according to the narrow inventory de-conversion cycle (the pre-sale license is not sold), only nearly half of the 30 large and medium-sized cities such as Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Hefei, Xi'an, Jinan, and Changsha have the conditions to continue to supply land." If according to the generalized inventory depletion cycle (the area of land that has been acquired and not sold), then the above-mentioned cities are estimated to be at least halved, and it is expected that only a few cities such as Hangzhou, Hefei and Ningbo will have the conditions for continued land supply. For most third- and fourth-tier cities, there are even fewer cities with inventory depletion cycles of less than 36 months. ”
Yan Yuejin, research director of Shanghai E-House Research Institute, said: "From the perspective of decentralization indicators, the decentralization cycle of 100 cities hit a record high in March, which also shows that the pressure of decentralization is very high, and it is urgent to explore new power sources. Of course, such power sources are gradually enriched, especially in the first quarter of the 'trade-in' and other work, which has a positive inspiration for the subsequent exploration of destocking in various places. At present, the real estate market is in the process of active adjustment and transformation, and it will take some time to resolve the inventory pressure. As the overall fundamentals of real estate continue to improve, the related risks are controllable, and there is room for further release of pressure. ”
"In the second quarter, there is room for continuous improvement in destocking. Yan Yuejin added: "In the second quarter, there is room for further optimization and adjustment of various policies, especially with the support of measures such as the liberalization of household registration policies, purchase restriction policies, and the lower limit of mortgage interest rates, such as the further liberalization of purchase restrictions in Beijing and Tianjin, and the policy environment for market recovery is more friendly, which in turn helps new houses to destock." In addition, the stabilization of house prices will also provide positive factors. At present, the housing price bubble in various places is actively removed, which objectively makes the cost performance of subscribing to new houses significantly improved. The market is expected to improve, which will bring more confidence and motivation to the destocking of new houses, and then promote the development of inventory indicators. ”
Beijing News reporter Xu Qian
Edited by Yang Juanjuan and proofread by Liu Baoqing