Today, the A-share market fluctuated higher throughout the day, with the ChiNext index rising 3.50%, and the Shanghai Composite Index standing at 3,100 points to hit a new high in the year, and standing on the annual line. On the disk, the real estate sector collectively rose sharply, with nearly 30 shares such as Vanke A, Gemdale Group, Dalong Real Estate, and Rongsheng Development.
This past weekend, local housing-related policies were intensively introduced, such as Shenzhen and Nanjing, which successively announced the implementation of the "old for new" policy for commercial housing, aiming to stimulate the activity of the local property market. At the same time, Chengdu announced the lifting of purchase restrictions to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. Kaiyuan Securities believes that the current signal of stabilizing real estate is clear, and it is expected that the future real estate policy will continue to be loose, and there is still room for the release of housing demand. Megacities are actively and steadily promoting the transformation of urban villages, and more counter-cyclical adjustment measures are expected to be accelerated.
Foreign institutions are also starting to be optimistic about China's real estate market. John Lam, head of real estate research at UBS Greater China, said that with government assistance, UBS has become more optimistic about China's real estate sector for the first time.
Although judging from the current data, there are still problems in demand and Vanke's debt is also being dealt with, Vanke A's daily limit today may be a signal: the darkest moment for real estate stocks is passing. Vanke A's last limit occurred on November 29, 2022, 516 days after today.
Today, the bond market continues to correct. Among them, 30-year Treasury bond futures fell rapidly, falling more than 1% intraday. At the close, the main contract of 30-year treasury bond futures was reported at 105.39 yuan, down 0.81%. As for the reasons for the recent adjustment of the bond market, industry experts said that on the one hand, the bond market rose significantly in the early stage, and the yield was generally at a historically low position; on the other hand, the seesaw effect of stocks and bonds appeared, the stock market performance improved, funds flowed from the bond market to the stock market, and the market risk appetite rose.
At a time when the market, brokerage sector and real estate stocks rose sharply, the treasury bond market has fallen significantly, indicating that risk aversion has fallen. At the same time, dividend assets have also started to fall. Today, the sector that has fallen sharply is the dividend sector. Oil, coal, etc., have become the main force to kill the fall. On the contrary, the growth stocks-based STAR Market and ChiNext have risen sharply, which means that the market's risk appetite is strengthening.
In terms of the value of the renminbi, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are also worthy of such a trend. Recently, the yen has fallen in a waterfall, falling below 160 yen to the dollar today, the lowest level since April 1990.
The Japanese stock market has performed well this year, up about 14.8% year-to-date. However, the yen has depreciated sharply against the dollar this year, falling about 12.3% year-to-date. In other words, foreign investors have made money by speculating in stocks in Japan, and if they exchange back to US dollars, they will find that they have basically made a lonely profit.
As the Federal Reserve insisted on not cutting interest rates, the dollar index continued to strengthen, and the world's major currencies depreciated against the dollar to varying degrees. This is where the strength of the currency is tested. Asian currencies have borne the brunt, and under the impact of the strong dollar, Asian currencies have depreciated to a certain extent, showing a downward curve. Since the beginning of this year, the South Korean won has depreciated by 7 percent against the US dollar, more than in 2008; Indonesia's local currency has hit its lowest level in four years; the Philippine peso and Vietnamese dong have also depreciated sharply, and of course the yen is the most serious.
Relative to the rest of Asia, the renminbi has been relatively stable, falling by about 2% in the first four months. But in the last month, when Asian currencies began to depreciate rapidly, the renminbi maintained a steady curve. The stable currency value has also made the investment value of China's stock market begin to become more prominent.
Author: Xu Jinhua
Editor: Li Ang
Producer: Wang Junji
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