#以书之名#
A closer look at its fundamental data reveals several questions worth pondering:
1) From the perspective of profitability, since its listing, its revenue, net profit, cash flow from operating activities, and ROE have all declined continuously until it fell to the bottom in 2015.
2) In 2016, there was a big reversal of the situation and profitability picked up, but it was ready to sell its shell, why is this?
3) From 2012 to 2015, the performance declined, but the valuation was rising, and in 2016-2017, the performance picked up, but the valuation declined, what is going on?
Let's look at the first stage, Henderson Daxin was listed in 2010, and after the listing, there was a situation of "increasing revenue without increasing profits", with revenue floating between 140 million yuan and 180 million yuan, net profit from 2012 began to decline year by year, and net cash flow from operating activities gradually declined.
Note that cash flow is higher than net profit, which is not due to a strong voice (more advance receipts and payables), but because the business model is an asset-heavy operation with more depreciation and amortization
From 2010 to 2015, ROE and ROIC plummeted, ROE decreased from 15.05% to 3.18%, and ROIC decreased from 7.79% to 2.39%.
According to DuPont's analysis, the main factors affecting the decline in ROE are the decline in net profit margin.
From 2010 to 2015, the net profit margin decreased from 35% to 26.5%. The decline in net profit margin was due to the decline in gross profit margin
Note that in the oil storage business, due to the large scale of investment in fixed assets such as special terminals, storage tanks, pipelines, etc., the proportion of fixed costs in the total cost is high.
Therefore, the change in gross margin mainly depends on the fluctuation of revenue
Therefore, the gross profit margin indicator is not only applicable to cyclical industries (such as Wanhua Chemical, Hesheng Silicon, Conch Cement, etc.), but also to heavy asset industries with a high proportion of fixed costs, such as coal mining, electric power, ports, airports, etc.
So, for this case, what is the relationship between the level of its income and its income?
The answer is: the utilization rate of terminal storage facilities, in other words, the prosperity of the downstream chemical industry.
From 2013 to 2015, the gross profit margin of this case fell from 60% to 40%, and the downstream petrochemical industry entered an inflection point in the production capacity cycle: the year-on-year growth rate of investment in the chemical industry declined, and there was negative growth in 2015
At the same time, the competition of downstream homogeneous products is fierce, such as: 18 million tons of urea overcapacity, more than 10 million tons of phosphate fertilizer overcapacity, chlor-alkali, polyvinyl chloride, capacity utilization rate is only about 70%. This will also cause some small and medium-sized customers to be shuffled out.
To make matters worse, the expansion project of Henderson Daxin's IPO to raise funds was terminated.
The project is a storage and transportation expansion project in Yangzhou reservoir area, with an estimated investment of 206 million yuan, and is expected to increase the storage tank capacity by 300,000 cubic meters and increase the storage capacity of liquid chemicals and refined oil by 1.65 million tons after the completion of construction
However, on January 20, 2012, Henderson Daxin announced that it had received a notice from the Management Committee of Yangzhou Chemical Industry Park
For environmental reasons, the park took back the land east of Yangzhou Port Wharf and adjusted it to the green belt of the park.
I don't know the follow-up, and listen to the next breakdown
It does not constitute any investment advice, the stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market