"May Day" is approaching a big plunge in air ticket prices: it predicts your prediction

The country is a through train

2024-04-30 10:15Published on the official account of Shandong China News Service "Guoshi Through Train".

Text/Gao Yanjiao

The "May Day" holiday is approaching, recently, many netizens have reported that their air tickets "bought at a loss", originally close to 1000 yuan in mid-April, the current low-cost ticket only needs 400 yuan to grab; more netizens said that the previously purchased air tickets, recently looked at again, than when they first bought 1400 yuan cheaper.

"May Day" is approaching a big plunge in air ticket prices: it predicts your prediction

Screenshot of netizens

Ctrip data shows that in the past week, the one-way tax-included price of domestic air tickets before and after the May Day holiday fell by about 30% compared with the same period last month. For example, the tax-included fares of Shanghai-Sanya in the past week fell by about 60% month-on-month, and the tax-inclusive fares of Beijing-Xiamen, Shanghai-Kunming, Guangzhou-Beijing and other routes fell by more than 40% month-on-month.

Why is the "May Day" holiday approaching, but the air ticket is cheaper?

Why has the price of air tickets "taken a big dive" recently?

Recently, Feichang Zhun released data saying that during the "May Day" holiday in 2024, the total number of takeoffs and landings at domestic airports is expected to increase by 8.99% year-on-year, an increase of 36.2% compared with 2019. It is expected that this year's "May Day" holiday will break last year's record and usher in the busiest "May Day" holiday in history.

Flights are busier, why don't fares go up instead of going down?

In this regard, Li Xiaojin, director of the Institute of Aviation Economic Development of the Civil Aviation University of China, said in an interview with China News Service that there are two factors in the recent decline in air ticket prices:

First, the demand side. Passengers who have purchased air tickets this year, especially those who have a need to travel, have bought tickets in advance based on their past experience. However, when the holiday season approaches, passengers who just need to buy tickets have already purchased tickets, and some passengers who have less demand for air tickets have given up buying tickets, which has led to a drop in ticket prices.

Second, the supply side. In the run-up to the holidays, airlines believe that travel demand is stronger, so they will moderately increase the capacity of flights. And in this way, there is a situation where the demand does not increase, but the supply increases, which affects the fare.

Qin Jing, vice president of Trip.com Group, also said that the price of air tickets changes dynamically according to the relationship between supply and demand. During peak and peak seasons, airlines will arrange more flight capacity than in the off-season according to their own expectations of the market to meet the demand for civil aviation. When the holiday season approaches and the capacity is still greater than the demand, the airline will adjust the price of the corresponding flights in order to dilute the cost of capacity.

In addition, with the increasing convenience of rail transit in recent years, many passengers choose high-speed rail travel, which also diverts the demand for civil aviation to a certain extent.

How to buy a cheaper ticket if you "pick up a leak"?

If you want to grab cheaper air tickets in the future, is it useful to squat on the "expiring ticket"?

In this regard, Li Xiaojin said that the decline in air ticket prices this time is essentially a game between the supply side and the demand side. People may still grab tickets more according to past experience, and the reverse situation may occur. Relying on squatting on "temporary checks" to pick up leaks may also be a solution, but the possibility of "squatting" is also relatively large.

If you want to buy a cheaper ticket, you can find a ticket at the right price by entering the expected price into the artificial intelligence on the platform's software. In addition, you can join an airline's long-haul program and make your ticket relatively cheaper by offsetting the fare with mileage accrual or point accrual award miles. If you have a more flexible schedule, you can also choose to travel during the relatively low season, or choose a lesser-known attraction.

At the moment, airfares are still at a low level. Qin Jing said that there is still one day before the official opening of the festival, and if there are passengers who have not yet decided on their travel plans, they can take advantage of this time to "pick up the leaks" and check in their favorite destinations.

Source: The country is a through train

Editor: Zhuge Ruixin

Editor-in-charge: Wei Xi

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