Preface: Take people as a mirror, you can know the gains and losses, take history as a mirror, you can know the rise and fall, review the trend of domestic steel prices after May Day over the years, combined with the current steel market supply and demand environment, for all steel friends to learn from.
May 2023: Domestic steel prices started to fall, and the price center of gravity shifted down by 300-400 yuan for the whole month
In May 23, domestic profile prices began to fall, the market was obviously cold on the first trading day after May Day, manufacturers took the lead in reducing factory prices widely, there was no decent rebound in the month, in an oversupply environment, cautious pessimism dominated, and the price center of gravity continued to move downward.
As of May 31, 23, the average price of 25# I-beam in the domestic market was 3906 yuan, down 341 yuan from the end of last month, the average price of 25# channel steel was 3935 yuan, down 317 yuan from the end of last month, the average price of 5# angle steel was 3862 yuan, down 317 yuan from the end of last month, and the average price of 200*200H steel was 3600 yuan, down 400 yuan from the end of last month.
May 2022: Epidemic control + international geopolitical conflicts Raw materials have been declining with spot prices
In May 22, domestic steel prices opened a downward channel, the price fell by 200-300 yuan widely, the desire to land demand was disappointed, and the impact of geopolitical emergencies and the normalization of epidemic control was superimposed.
As of May 31, 22, the average price of 25# I-beam in the domestic market was 5155 yuan, down 305 yuan over the same period last month, the average price of 25# channel steel was 5297 yuan, down 267 yuan over the same period last month, the average price of 5# angle steel was 5111 yuan, down 275 yuan over the same period last month, and the price of 200×200H steel was 4937 yuan, down 201 yuan over the same period last month.
May 2021: Domestic steel has experienced a crazy surge and a cliff fall
Returning from the May Day holiday, the domestic high-level speech on "carbon peak, carbon neutrality" stimulated steel prices to rise, steel prices reached the highest point in history on May 13, the average trough angle stood on the 6500 mark, and then turned around and fell rapidly, falling more than 1,000 in half a month, Tangshan profile prices fell from a high point of 6300 to around 5300, and the post-holiday gains have all been given back.
As of May 31, 21, the average price of 25# I-beam in the domestic market was 5,739 yuan, up 152 yuan over the same period last month, the average price of 25# channel steel was 5,715 yuan, up 144 yuan over the same period last month, the average price of 5# angle steel was 5,752 yuan, up 176 yuan over the same period last month, and the price of 200×200H steel was 5,647 yuan, up 193 yuan over the same period last month.
May 2020: Favorable policies boosted the rise of domestic section steel by more than 100 yuan
After May Day, the central bank issued a new limit of 1 trillion yuan of special bonds and other macro news stimulated, domestic steel prices ushered in a relatively strong rise, the highest single-day increase in domestic steel 80-120 yuan. After the two sessions, the consumption involving real estate, infrastructure construction and other aspects was less than expected, and steel prices fell slightly at the end of the month.
As of May 29, 20, the average price of 25# I-beam in the domestic market was 3,851 yuan, up 120 yuan over the same period last month; the average price of 25# channel steel was 3,824 yuan, up 106 yuan over the same period last month; the average price of 5# angle steel was 3,861 yuan, up 89 yuan over the same period last month; and the price of 200×200H steel was 3,765 yuan, up 143 yuan over the same period last month.
Throughout history, whether the domestic steel price rose or fell in May, there was a wave of obvious market fluctuations, and domestic and foreign disturbance factors increased. The rise in steel prices after the holiday over the years is generally driven by favorable policies, but the actual demand is insufficient to restrict, and most of them end up falling. At present, the domestic steel supply is still in a state of oversupply, and with the shrinking of real estate, the infrastructure is stepping on the brakes, and the contradiction of oversupply is becoming more and more serious this year. In April, steel prices in the capital, sentiment and over-falling rebound appeal together resonated out of the rebound market, demand also has a wave of release, but with the arrival of the rainy season in the south, May demand can continue unknown, but market expectations are generally insufficient, with the recovery of profits, steel mills resumption of production enthusiasm rises, the supply side is under pressure.
However, in April, the policy continued to be good, especially in terms of funds, the issuance of additional treasury bonds and the renewal of equipment in the industrial field, the replacement of the old for the new, and the three major projects and other policies are accelerating the landing, etc., to boost market confidence, superimposed on the price of raw material iron ore and coke generally strengthened, and there was support on the cost side, which laid a certain foundation for the demand in May.
In May, the domestic steel market coexists, according to the data prediction results of the steel wisdom - Lange Tengjing Iron and Steel Big Data AI-assisted decision-making system, it is expected that the domestic steel prices in the first week after the holiday will show a narrow upward trend, and the middle and late shocks will be weak, but there is not much room for adjustment, and it is recommended that you pay attention to the prediction results of the steel wisdom in real time. (Lange Steel, Wang Xiaoxue)