Overview: In April, as the traditional "silver four" peak season, since the Qingming Festival, the futures market has climbed red many times, boosting market confidence, traders took advantage of the market to pick up and ship, the overall inventory showed a downward trend, and the spot market was stable and improving.
First, exports showed a good momentum
In March, the export volume of cold-rolled sheet from the mainland was 249,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 48.9%, and the export volume of cold-rolled sheet from January to March was 673,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 58.8%.
In March, the export volume of cold-rolled thin broadband was 401,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40.3%, and the export volume of cold-rolled thin broadband from January to March was 608,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%.
In March, the export volume of cold-rolled narrow steel strip was 39,900 tons, a month-on-year increase of 34.4%, and the export volume of cold-rolled narrow steel strip from January to March was 117,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 51.7%.
At present, the export environment is good, the world economic growth rate is expected to increase, and cold-rolled exports will maintain a good momentum. However, the international geopolitical conflict has not subsided, the development of economic de-globalization, the strengthening of the regional economy and other factors, will also form a certain negative disturbance to the export of cold-rolled steel.
Second, social inventories are on a downward trend
According to the monitoring data of Lange Steel Network, as of April 26, the national cold-rolled coil inventory was 1.4403 million tons, down 0.40% month-on-month and up 17.61% year-on-year. Among them, the cold-rolled inventory in Tianjin was 136,900 tons, down 4.00% month-on-month and up 26.64% year-on-year, the cold-rolled inventory in Shanghai was 276,100 tons, down 0.19% month-on-month and up 2.90% year-on-year, and the cold-rolled inventory in Guangzhou was 432,600 tons, up 0.51% month-on-month and 51.94% year-on-year.
In April, the social inventory of cold-rolled coil was still high, and the speed of destocking was slow. Terminal procurement cannot be large-scale, and the demand release is lower than the market supply. A series of factors superimposed on the market contradiction has not been substantially alleviated, and the inventory pressure of steel enterprises and steel trade is still large.
Third, the downstream demand is slightly larger
1. Automobile production and sales increased year-on-year
According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in March 2024, vehicle production and sales reached 2.687 million units and 2.694 million units, up 78.4% m/m and 70.2% m/m and 4% and 9.9% y/y, respectively. From January to March, vehicle production and sales totaled 6.606 million units and 6.72 million units, up 6.4% and 10.6% y/y, respectively, making a good start to the first quarter.
Overall sales of automobiles: 2.694 million units sold in March, up 9.9%, and cumulative sales from January to March were 6.720 million units, up 10.6%.
Passenger cars: Sales in March were 2.236 million units, up 10.9%, and cumulative sales from January to March were 5.687 million units, up 10.7%.
Commercial vehicles: Sales in March were 458,000 units, up 5.6%, and cumulative sales from January to March were 1.033 million units, up 10.1%.
New energy vehicles: sales in March were 883,000 units, up 35.3 percent, and cumulative sales from January to March were 2.09 million units, up 31.8 percent.
Chinese brand passenger cars: sales in March were 1.326 million units, up 26.1% year-on-year, and cumulative sales from January to March were 3.392 million units, up 26.4%.
Vehicle exports: Vehicle exports in March were 502,000 units, up 37.9% y/y, and cumulative exports from January to March were 1.324 million units, up 33.2% y/y.
2. Household appliances maintain a growth trend
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the home appliance industry still maintains a growth trend. May is the traditional stocking and promotion season, and the demand for steel in the home appliance industry may increase slightly. Recently, the macro good news continues, especially in terms of funds, including the issuance of additional treasury bonds, special treasury bonds, local bonds, etc., as well as the renewal of equipment in the industrial field, trade-in, and the three major projects are accelerating the landing, which has laid a certain foundation for the demand in May, and the overall demand is expected to continue to improve.
In March 2024, the national output of air conditioners was 30.833 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, and the cumulative output from January to March was 68.780 million units, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%.
In March, the national refrigerator output was 9.934 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, and the cumulative output from January to March was 23.621 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%.
In March, the national output of washing machines was 9.324 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, and the cumulative output from January to March was 25.599 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%.
In March, the national output of color televisions was 17.922 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0 percent, and the cumulative output from January to March was 43.343 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percent.
Fourth, the market outlook
Due to the influence of factors such as the combination effect of policy strengthening, the continuous release of terminal demand, and the strengthening of cost support, the domestic steel market showed a shock rebound in April. At present, the release rate of cold rolling market demand is not as fast as the speed of production and supply, and the social inventory is slow to destock. The supply-side production reduction is weak, the inventory decline is slow and other factors are intertwined, and the competition in the spot market is fierce, and the price war can occasionally be smelled. It is expected that the cold-rolled market may consolidate in May. (Lange Steel Cheng Huan)