Author | He Fan, Song Yanchen, Cai Qisheng, Guo Yuwei, Lu Political Commissar
Japan, interest rates
Japan has experienced a long period of low interest rates, and the main reason behind this is the lack of physical financing demand due to the bursting of the double bubble in the real estate and stock markets, and the "disappearance" of borrowers after the relocation of the manufacturing industry. From the perspective of major borrowers such as real estate, manufacturing and local governments, this paper compares the differences between the downward interest rates of China and Japan, and provides a reference for judging the future trend of interest rates in mainland China.
From the perspective of financing in the real estate sector, the Japanese real estate market continues to face oversupply, and enterprises are deeply involved in real estate speculation, enterprises hold a large amount of land, and the pressure of asset revaluation after the fall in land prices is great; In addition, stock market valuations during Japan's bubble period were significantly overvalued.
From the perspective of the financing of manufacturing enterprises, under the influence of the accelerated transfer of industrial chains by Japanese enterprises, Japan's overseas production has gradually replaced domestic production, and the development of high-tech industries is relatively lagging behind, thus weakening the investment and financing needs of Japanese enterprises in the local area; while the mainland's current foreign investment is still dominated by a complementary industrial chain cooperation model, there is still a large space for development in industrial transformation and upgrading and high-tech industries, and the investment and financing demand for high-tech manufacturing is relatively high.
From the perspective of local government financing, after the bursting of the bubble in Japan, the Japanese government has become the main department to increase leverage, and the government leverage ratio is relatively high, but the main body of government borrowing is mainly the central government, and the proportion of local government debt is relatively small, while the local government debt in the mainland accounts for a higher proportion of all government debt, and local governments have hidden debts.
From the perspective of the impact of borrower differences on the interest rates of the two countries, the real estate loans of the mainland banking industry are mainly personal housing loans, and the exposure to loans to real estate enterprises is smaller than that of the Japanese banking industry, and mainland enterprises are less involved in real estate speculation, and the risk exposure of the banking industry to the equity market is also very small; with the rapid development of the high-tech manufacturing industry, the medium and long-term loans of the mainland manufacturing industry have grown rapidly, and the proportion of manufacturing loans has stabilized and rebounded; it should be noted that the exposure of the mainland banking industry to local government debt is significantly higher than that of the Japanese banking industry. Therefore, in addition to the demand for real estate financing, the resolution of local government debt is an important variable affecting the trend of medium and long-term interest rates in mainland China.
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