Recently, LONGi Green Energy has once again attracted everyone's attention.
The focus this time is that some netizens predict that LONGi Green Energy will release new products. The reason is that a product specification of LONGi Green Energy circulated on the Internet shows that the name of the product is LONGi Green Energy Hi-MO 9 product, and LONGi Green Energy has not mentioned or released this product before.
This datasheet shows two of the most critical information for the new product: a maximum conversion efficiency of 24.4% and BC technology. This is both reasonable and unexpected. It is reasonable that in September 2023, LONGi Green Energy has made it clear that BC cells will be the absolute mainstream of crystalline silicon cells, and a large number of LONGi Green Energy's products will adopt the BC technology route in the future. Unexpectedly, the product can reach a maximum power of 660W and a maximum conversion efficiency of 24.4%. If these data are true, then this conversion efficiency can be said to be the highest efficiency among the mainstream versions of photovoltaic modules.
While most of the first-tier enterprises in the industry have chosen TOPCon, LONGi Green Energy has chosen an unusual path - All in BC, and claimed that BC technology is the "crown jewel" of crystalline silicon technology, and a variety of technical routes in the future point to BC technology. In the next 5-6 years, BC cells will be the absolute mainstream of crystalline silicon cells.
Whether it is BC cell technology or the now rumored Hi-MO 9 product based on BC technology, can the launch of new technologies and new products help LONGi Green Energy, whose market value has shrunk, to cross the cycle and return to the throne of the world's largest photovoltaic company by market capitalization?
The answer is: it remains to be seen.
Technology iteration A variety of technical routes continue to compete
After entering the era of "dual carbon", photovoltaic ushered in a new round of technology iteration, and the photovoltaic industry accelerated iteration.
Although the competition for the next-generation technology route is fierce, it is still unknown which is the next-generation photovoltaic technology.
At present, TOPCon products are undoubtedly a popular technical route, and many A-share listed companies such as TCL Zhonghuan, JinkoSolar, and Trina Solar have made in-depth layouts in this field.
According to SMM's forecast, n-type cell production will account for more than 60% in the first quarter of 2024, of which TOPCon technology will account for the majority of the share. In the next 2~3 years, the new and old production capacity will accelerate iteration.
However, unlike other major PV companies that have vigorously deployed TOPCon, in order to meet customer demand, LONGi Green Energy has only expanded its TOPCon production capacity by 30 GW in Ordos. In fact, LONGi Green Energy's R&D of TOPCon was closed at the end of 2019, because at that time, it was judged that it would be difficult for large-scale expansion of TOPCon to form a unique competitiveness.
In September 2023, Zhong Baoshen, chairman of LONGi Green Energy, made it clear that TOPCon is still a transitional product, and compared with the current PERC, its improvement is still too small, and the industry is highly homogeneous in terms of technology, which is very prone to investment returns that do not meet expectations, or the phenomenon of surplus before making money. "There are already signs of that. ”
As a result, LONGi Green Energy chose differentiated competition and carried out advanced capacity expansion after the next-generation technology became more mature and competitive. This is also in line with LONGi's consistent principle of "not leading, not expanding".
In the eyes of LONGi Green Energy, the next generation technology is BC technology. In September 2023, LONGi Green Energy clarified its future technical roadmap - BC (Back Contact) battery technology. Zhong Baoshen, Chairman of LONGi Green Energy, said at the semi-annual results briefing held on September 5, 2023 that LONGi Green Energy believes that in the next 5~6 years, BC cells will be the absolute mainstream of crystalline silicon cells. At present, BC's technical roadmap has matured and will gradually replace TOPCon. A large number of LONGi Green Energy's next products will move towards the BC technology route.
The management of LONGi Green Energy has also said that LONGi Green Energy's HPBC is a landmark transformation product in the industry, which means that the difficult technology and expensive products in the past have begun to move towards the parity market. Previously, BC batteries had excellent power generation performance, but due to factors such as high technical difficulty and uncontrolled cost, they occupied a small market.
Of course, LONGi's layout of BC is not just casual talk. After announcing the future technology roadmap, LONGi Green Energy is in full swing in terms of improving the conversion efficiency of BC cells, launching BC products, and landing production capacity.
Therefore, in the current photovoltaic market, TOPCon, perovskite, HJT, BC and other cell technologies coexist, and there are still different opinions and uncertainties about who is the next generation technology route in the future.
Increased competition and poor ROI
While the implementation of new technology production capacity is accelerating, it has also given rise to problems such as overcapacity, intensified competition, and homogenization.
Since the second half of 2023, competition in the PV industry has intensified. According to data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the winning bid price of modules at the end of 2023 fell by more than 40% from the beginning of 2023, falling below 1 yuan/W. Correspondingly, in 2023, although the output value of the domestic photovoltaic manufacturing industry (excluding inverters) will exceed 1.75 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%, the growth rate will slow down. In addition, taking module exports as an example, except for July 2023, the monthly export volume in 2023 increased compared with the same period in 2022, but in the second half of 2023, with the sharp drop in prices, the increase in export volume did not lead to an increase in total exports, but a decline.
The 2023 full-year performance forecasts of many photovoltaic companies show that most companies have lower performance in the fourth quarter. Among them, JinkoSolar's net profit in the fourth quarter was about 1.086 billion yuan, down 56.75% from the previous quarter, and also decreased compared with the same period in 2022. Jingyuntong deducted a non-net profit of 32.9009 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 91.59%......
This trend may not be effectively alleviated in 2024. Previously, Canadian Solar Chairman Qu Xiaohua made it clear that in 2024, do not expect PV to have particularly high profitability. This is also the industry's consensus expectation for the PV market in 2024.
At the same time, the speed of clearing backward production capacity is accelerating. As of the end of December 2023, 50.6GW of PERC cell capacity has been closed or suspended, and 132GW of TOPCon projects are facing suspension of expansion. In the case of continuous losses in the industry, the clearing of production capacity will gradually accelerate.
Different from the BC battery technology of the above technical route, its cost has always been a concern for everyone. At the end of 2023, Li Zhenguo, founder and president of LONGi Green Energy, said that the cost of BC technology is very close to that of similar technologies, slightly higher than that of traditional PERC technology. "Currently, HPBC modules can maintain a premium of 1-1.5 cents/W in the general market and 3-4 cents/W in the high-end market. ”
At the same time, he also said that in the case of a rapid decline in product prices in 2023, the premium advantage of HPBC has not fully emerged, mainly because HPBC is facing a distributed market and is a spot price, which is different from a centralized futures price;
It can be seen that BC still has differentiated advantages compared with TOPCon in terms of conversion efficiency and premium. However, it remains to be seen whether LONGi Green Energy can use BC new technologies and products to cross the cycle, return to the world's No. 1 in module shipments, and return to the throne of the world's largest PV company by market capitalization.
Text丨Cold river snow