CFIC Introduction
At present, the economy may have entered the stage of medium-high speed or even medium- and low-speed growth, and on this basis, it has decided not to carry out strong stimulus of flood irrigation on the demand side, and advocated that the idea of supply-side structural reform should be strengthened for a long time to come.
On April 24, 2024, the series of forums on the high-quality development of listed companies (Phase VII) was held at the "Oriental Sapphire" China Financial Information Center. At the meeting, Zhang Jun, a well-known economist, dean of the School of Economics of Fudan University and director of the China Economic Research Center of Fudan University, delivered a keynote speech on "The Principle of Autonomy in China's Macroeconomic Regulation and Control in Recent Years".
He first analyzed the change of thinking on macroeconomic governance at the top level since 2013, and especially pointed out the basic consensus formed by the high-level in macroeconomic governance, including the research and judgment that the economy may have entered the stage of medium-high speed or even medium-low speed growth. After the transition of the new crown, it further put forward the balanced and steady idea of combining the expansion of domestic demand with the promotion of supply-side structural reform.
He believes that after the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, especially from 2013 to 2015, with the continuous decline in the mainland's economic and trade dependence and foreign exchange appropriation, the scale of domestic demand has expanded rapidly, and the high-level has made a new judgment on the operation of the mainland economy and re-assessed the economic and financial risks, formed a new consensus on the policy tone and paradigm of economic governance, and increasingly emphasized the continuity and soundness of the choice of macroeconomic governance policies, emphasized the prevention of systemic economic and financial risks in the first place, and emphasized that the regulation and control of short-term fluctuations should be converged to the long-term optimal growth track of the economy as much as possible。
When talking about macroeconomic policies, Professor Zhang Jun believes that due to the change in the orientation and style of macroeconomic policies adhered to by the mainland, and more adherence to the principle of independence, the situation of the monetary policies of China and the United States being out of sync is becoming more and more obvious. Professor Zhang Jun believes that this is largely due to the fact that in addition to the traditional Taylor rule, we have begun to refer more to Professor Edmund Phelps' "golden rule" and Professor William Brainard's "attenuation principle" in addition to the traditional Taylor rule. The "Golden Rule" provides an important reference value for how to better coordinate the consistency of short-term economic fluctuations with the long-term optimal trajectory, while the "Tapering Principle" provides a reference logic for how to ensure the effectiveness of interest rate policy under uncertain conditions. At present, China's macroeconomic control policy mainly follows the idea of combining counter-cyclical adjustment with cross-cyclical adjustment, which reflects that there is more "self-centeredness" behind the monetary control policy In particular, when determining the interest rate, on the basis of fully considering various uncertainties such as economic operation and policy effects, we should pay attention to cross-cyclical adjustment and cross-regional balance, and try to keep the real interest rate at the golden rule level of about equal to the potential economic growth rate while ironing out short-term economic fluctuations and maintaining price stability, so as to match the interest rate level with the requirements of potential economic growth and maintaining basic price stability, combined with innovative structural monetary tools (such as MLF, PSL, etc.), which generally maintains normal money space and an upward yield curve.
Professor Zhang Jun's speech provided the background and logic for us to better understand the basic principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" in macroeconomic management and regulation work in recent years. The event was guided by the China Association of Public Companies and the Cooperation and Exchange Office of the Shanghai Municipal People's Government, hosted by the China Financial Information Center, the Shanghai Federation of Industrial Economics, the Shanghai Association of Listed Companies, and the Education Development Center of the School of Economics of Fudan University, co-sponsored by the Bank of Ningbo, and supported by the Shanghai Society for the Integration and Development of Science and Technology and Economy, the Shanghai Yangtze River Delta Industry Empowerment Research Institute, Ernst & Young, and JunHe.
Source of this article: China Financial Information Center Lujiazui Financial Network
WeChat editor: Wang Ziqing
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