April is coming to an end, recently, the trend of corn in domestic producing areas continues to diverge, the northeast market, corn trend is stable, but the downward pressure is gradually increasing. In the North China market, corn quotations showed a precipitous downward trend, and deep processing quotations in many places hit new lows, and the North China market became a "depression" for domestic corn prices......
Judging from market feedback, up to now, in Northeast China, the price of deep-processed corn is stable at 1.075~1.195 yuan/jin, and the quotation of mainstream enterprises in Heilongjiang is about 1.075~1.145 yuan/jin!
However, in the North China market, Shandong, the center of gravity of corn prices has further moved downward, and the listed price of local deep processing enterprises has fallen to 1.09~1.24 yuan / catty, of which the price of Heze Chengwu corn has fallen to 1.09 yuan, the price of Heze Daze Cheng Biology has fallen to 1.095 yuan, and the price of Linqing gold corn has fallen to 1.109 yuan......
The pressure of "upside down" corn prices in producing areas has increased sharply, which has also caused the cost-effective advantage of corn in Northeast China to "disappear"!
Due to the bottoming out of the surplus grain at the grassroots level, the high level of channel inventory, and the limited price difference of grain sources, the risk of selling pressure on channel grain sources has intensified, although the price of corn in the local enterprises is high, and the price mentality still exists, but due to the cold purchase and sale of local corn, and the channel outward way is blocked, some traders have the mentality of falling into the bag and securing, which also causes the downward pressure on corn in Northeast China to increase!
At present, from the institutional research and understanding, the grassroots surplus grain in the producing area is gradually decreasing, the surplus grain in the Northeast is less than 1 percent, the surplus grain in North China is only 1 ~ 2 percent, the risk of corn grassroots selling pressure is gradually reduced, the last two days, the phenomenon of deep processing quotation decline has weakened, some institutions believe that the corn market or has a bottoming up trend!
However, at this critical moment, the corn market has been hit head-on, and the price reduction of corn is far from over......
On the one hand, North China corn is facing the pressure of Tengku!
According to the experience of previous years, in North China and the Huanghuai region, before the centralized harvest of wheat, traders are more enthusiastic about leaving the warehouse, and there is only more than a month before the centralized harvesting of wheat, and the fundamentals of loose corn supply in the market are still obvious!
On the other hand, the demand capacity of deep processing enterprises has dropped significantly!
Entering May, in North China and the Huanghuai market, the shutdown of local deep processing enterprises may increase, and the operating rate of factories may decline. According to the analysis of institutional data, this week's sample of 59 corn starch enterprises, the centralized operating rate was 65.76%, compared with the previous week's operating rate decreased by 5.24%!
The decline in the operating rate of deep processing is not only due to the shutdown of some enterprises, but also by the sharp decline in corn prices, the concentration of supply of downstream products in deep processing, the greater competitive pressure between enterprises, and the general follow-up of consumer demand, corn starch is facing the pressure of production and marketing mismatch, some enterprises are forced to reduce the operating rate, and the consumption capacity of corn is gradually declining!
To sum up, due to the loose pattern of corn spot supply, and the inventory level of the main demand body remains high, by the North China traders Tengku and deep processing downstream products competition pressure, production and marketing mismatch is highlighted, corn consumption capacity or will be insufficient, domestic corn spot is still facing strong supply and weak demand fundamentals, corn spot price center of gravity or will further decline, May will still be the "cold winter" of the corn market......
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