Corn in May is "stressful"!
Since the sudden plunge of corn in Henan, the corn market has been completely chaotic.
Shandong and Northeast China have also started to fall mode, although it is not uncommon for Shandong and Northeast China to fall together, but this time it is indeed a little different.
For example, Shandong, at present, Shandong corn can be said to have completely fallen into the pit.
Why?
The laws of the market are all out of order.
In the past, the Shandong market was famous for "watching the car and getting off the dish", the car price was reduced more, and the car was less expensive, although there were some "snobbishness", but there were rules to follow.
But now it has changed, and now there are more cars and the price is lowered, and the price of fewer cars is also lowered.
For example, after the volume continued to break 1,000, it fell back in the past two days, and the number of trucks in front of the deep processing door fell from more than 1,000 to more than 800, and then fell to more than 600, but at a glance at the market, it is still green, and the "Chinese word" enterprises are still taking the lead in lowering prices, how can this be good?
As for the Northeast, although it did not fall as hard as Shandong, it also began to shake and weaken under the impact of Shandong.
At present, the average price of corn in Shandong has fallen below 2,300 yuan/ton, and it continues to be inverted with the Northeast.
However, what the market is worried about this time is not the problem of price reduction, because although corn has fallen into this bearish shape, everyone does not expect corn to fall again.
For example, although Shandong corn has been falling endlessly, and fell below 2,300 yuan / ton, the market generally believes that it is not possible to cross the step downward, can corn really fall back to 1 yuan or even below 1 yuan?
As for the Northeast, there has been an increase in reserves in the stable field, and the third round of increased reserves has just opened, and the support is still relatively obvious.
Taking a step back, isn't the purpose of increasing reserves for so long just to hold the bottom of corn? Can we still watch it fall short?
So I'm not too worried about the fall of corn, but what I'm really worried about is when the corn will come out after it falls into the pit?
At present, it is far away.
It's the end of April now, and it's about to enter May, and the corn in May is undoubtedly under pressure.
First, the wheat harvest period entered in May, although the current price difference between wheat and corn is large, but the market wait-and-see sentiment has increased.
In May, wheat began to be harvested from south to north, and some trading entities switched to wheat, and there was a demand for liquidation;
On the other hand, although the price difference between the two is large, feed companies are not in a hurry, especially when the price is in a downward trend, the wait-and-see mood is stronger.
Second, the northeast of Shandong continues to be upside down, and it is unknown when this situation will end.
Although it is said that the northeast market in Shandong is in its own position, since the price is inverted, the northeast corn export is not smooth, and it has been suffocated.
If the corn wants to be untied, it must be re-priced, so the question is, is the Northeast corn falling, or Shandong corn rising?
At present, no one can move, which means that this upside-down situation cannot be stopped for a while.
Therefore, even if corn no longer falls, but it does not rise, for enterprises, they can continue to wait and see and maintain rigid inventory, but it will be difficult for trade subjects.
To collect or not to collect, to save or not to save, to save one more day to cost.
Third, referring to last year's market, corn not only did not rise in May last year, but fell to the low point of the year.
There are many similarities between this year's corn and wheat market and last year's market, so it cannot be ruled out that some stages will repeat the mistakes of last year.
In May, corn is not much good, except for the bottom of the surplus grain, there is a part of the bottoming effect, the demand side is not much, so the corn in May is still stormy.
Although Henan corn has risen again in the past two days, releasing some positive signals, the new agricultural concept believes that this is at most a bottoming rather than a boost.
On the one hand, after the corn overfall, especially after approaching the edge of 1.1 yuan/catty, the market resistance is strong; on the other hand, many grain sources have run away, which has also reduced a certain pressure, and the storage has also stabilized the market sentiment.
However, the boost is not visible, the supply and demand of corn have not changed significantly, and market confidence is still insufficient, so the room for upward movement is limited.
May corn may be another "protracted war".
Is it going to stop falling and rising? The wheat market is far more complicated than you can imagine
Since the second decline in wheat and the fall out of the sky again, the wheat market has been completely chaotic. The current wheat market is not at the bottom, and it is even more afraid to speak out, and it is deeply shrouded in pessimism.
And now the market is more like a frightened bird, any wind and grass will make people nervous.
And wheat seems to have become less rainy in recent days after the storm, and there have even been sporadic slight increases, which has excited the market.
Is wheat going to stop falling and rising?
I think I can answer this in four words: it's too early.
Like we said before, don't look at corn falling into a mess, but in fact wheat is much more complex than corn.
So, what's so complicated about wheat?
First, don't look at the wheat falling fiercely, but the bullish sentiment of wheat is not low.
Although it is said that wheat and corn are facing a return situation, there are not many people who say that corn has fallen to the point that no friends believe it, but there are not many people who believe in wheat.
On the one hand, the reason is that everyone is still intoxicated with the market of 1.6 yuan/kg of wheat at every turn, coupled with the bad rain in the wheat harvest last year, the quality of wheat has declined rapidly, and a large number of sprouts have been produced, making high-quality wheat more scarce.
On the other hand, wheat is a ration, and under the premise of food security, the market generally believes that the policy attention of wheat will not be lower than that of corn.
So the bullish sentiment for wheat is actually relatively strong, but as the saying goes, if the expectations are too high, the greater the disappointment, so the pressure on the wheat market is much higher than that of corn.
Second, the decline in wheat seems to be a game between supply and demand, but it is actually a secret contest among flour companies.
The decline of wheat in this way is generally believed to be due to the continuous release of wheat under the policy and the sluggish downstream demand, which led to oversupply and wheat decline.
But this is only a superficial phenomenon, and behind it is actually a secret competition between flour companies.
First of all, the cost and quantity of wheat in the inventory of flour enterprises are different, especially in the downward market, the cost has become an important weight for flour enterprises.
Low-cost businesses can sell flour at a reduced price, while higher-cost businesses are bound to bear it.
Secondly, flour companies should not only consider the previous cost, but also consider the future cost, which will involve the expectation of wheat.
On the one hand, the expectation of a bumper new wheat harvest is getting higher, further suppressing the center of gravity of wheat prices, while on the other hand, in addition to the current rotation, the market is beginning to focus on the release of wheat in the market.
Although under normal circumstances, in the case of sufficient supply of wheat, especially in the case of strong supply and weak demand, the probability of wheat being put on the market is not high, but there is a special condition to consider, that is, the number of wheat stored in the market for more than 10 years is not low, and the quantity may be about 10 million tons.
This makes the market or the company's expectations for new wheat further weaken, so in this case, the company will try to keep the price of wheat as low as possible to reduce the risk.
Third, despite the decline in wheat, it is becoming less and less likely to be re-killed.
As a food product, the consumption of wheat is basically stable, and it is difficult to increase it too much. Therefore, the main increase in wheat consumption is in feed.
But feeding this year is also very difficult:
On the one hand, the aquaculture industry is sluggish.
Pig prices are grinding for too long, farmers lose money for too long, although this year's expected rise in sentiment is relatively high, but feed companies are also waiting for pig prices to rise, while also waiting, the enthusiasm for procurement is not high.
On the other hand, corn has fallen below 2300 yuan/ton, while wheat is about 2600 yuan/ton, and the price difference between corn is very obvious, it can be said that there is no advantage, and many feed companies have basically stopped purchasing wheat.
Although wheat has stabilized in recent days, the main reason is that on the one hand, the policy grain supply has eased, and the purchase has increased, which has eased the market sentiment to a certain extent.
On the other hand, it was also the market that was able to take a breather after the crash.
But I'm afraid it's just a breather, as the new wheat harvest is getting closer and closer, confidence is getting less and less, and wheat prices are still at risk of a small decline.
The scenery of previous years is no longer there, and the market of 1.6 yuan at every turn can't go back.
Corn prices
The average price of corn (feed raw materials) in China was 2457 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from yesterday.
Prices are indicative only and are not intended as a basis for investment and trading
| region | Provinces | 04-26 | 04-25 | 较Yesterday |
| East | Anhui Province | 2700 | 2683 | 17 |
| Shandong Province | 2336 | 2340 | -4 | |
| Zhejiang Province | 2600 | 2600 | ||
| Jiangxi Province | 2600 | 2600 | ||
| Fujian Province | 2350 | 2350 | ||
| Jiangsu Province | 2370 | 2370 | ||
| Shanghai | 2510 | 2510 | ||
| northwest | Xinjiang | 2400 | 2429 | -29 |
| Shaanxi Province | 2400 | 2400 | ||
| Gansu Province | 2300 | 2300 | ||
| Qinghai Province | 2089 | 2072 | 17 | |
| Lingxia | 2728 | 2693 | 35 | |
| Central | Henan Province | 2471 | 2478 | -7 |
| Hunan Province | 2520 | 2603 | -83 | |
| Hubei Province | 2735 | 2850 | -115 | |
| North | Beijing | 2442 | 2442 | |
| Tianjin | 2300 | 2350 | -50 | |
| Shanxi Province | 2400 | 2400 | ||
| Hebei Province | 2423 | 2433 | -10 | |
| Inner Mongolia | 2331 | 2309 | 22 | |
| South | Guangxi | 2600 | 2600 | |
| Guangdong Province | 2384 | 2384 | ||
| Hainan | 2685 | 2645 | 40 | |
| northeast | Liaoning Province | 2380 | 2380 | |
| Heilongjiang | 2300 | 2300 | ||
| Jilin Province | 2400 | 2400 | ||
| southwest | Sichuan Province | 2655 | 2615 | 40 |
| Guizhou Province | 2711 | 2711 | ||
| Yunnan Province | 2570 | 2560 | 10 | |
| Chongqing Municipality | 2400 | 2400 |
Soybean meal prices
The average price of soybean meal (43 protein) in China was 3383 yuan/ton, basically the same as yesterday.
Prices are indicative only and are not intended as a basis for investment and trading
| region | Provinces | 04-26 | 04-25 | 较Yesterday |
| East | Anhui Province | 3342 | 3341 | 1 |
| Shandong Province | 3422 | 3422 | ||
| Zhejiang Province | 3449 | 3449 | ||
| Jiangxi Province | 3437 | 3437 | ||
| Fujian Province | 3359 | 3358 | 1 | |
| Jiangsu Province | 3385 | 3384 | 1 | |
| Shanghai | 3330 | 3330 | ||
| northwest | Xinjiang | 3670 | 3633 | 37 |
| Shaanxi Province | 3392 | 3391 | 1 | |
| Gansu Province | 3381 | 3375 | 6 | |
| Qinghai Province | 4298 | 4298 | ||
| Lingxia | 3957 | 3957 | ||
| Central | Henan Province | 3334 | 3336 | -2 |
| Hunan Province | 3380 | 3383 | -3 | |
| Hubei Province | 3376 | 3373 | 3 | |
| North | Beijing | 3327 | 3327 | |
| Tianjin | 3463 | 3469 | -6 | |
| Shanxi Province | 3560 | 3560 | ||
| Hebei Province | 3336 | 3336 | ||
| Inner Mongolia | 3827 | 3827 | ||
| South | Guangxi | 3331 | 3331 | |
| Guangdong Province | 3345 | 3345 | ||
| Hainan | 5231 | 5231 | ||
| northeast | Liaoning Province | 3402 | 3401 | 1 |
| Heilongjiang | 3331 | 3331 | ||
| Jilin Province | 3414 | 3420 | -6 | |
| southwest | Sichuan Province | 3390 | 3391 | -1 |
| Guizhou Province | 3380 | 3380 | ||
| Yunnan Province | 3595 | 3585 | 10 | |
| Chongqing Municipality | 3450 | 3648 | -198 |