The Philippines has roped in external forces, and after more and more provocative actions in the South China Sea, relevant information is also emerging in an endless stream, and the latest one made the Philippine presidential office nervous, and immediately came forward to respond. According to the Observer, on April 24, the Philippine President's Office issued a statement to the public, saying that a "fake audio of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos" had recently appeared on the online platform, trying to make people believe that Marcos threatened to "take military action against China". The statement stressed, inter alia, that Marcos had never given a similar order. What should we think about this?
First of all, judging from the current situation in the South China Sea, it cannot be ruled out that the Philippines is "directing and acting on its own" when such a thing happens. Why?
First, the Philippines' current actions have actually raised the South China Sea dispute to a military level, as evidenced by the following four points.
First, after Japan, South Korea, and Australia refused, the Philippines went so far as to agree to the United States deploying medium-range missiles in the Philippines, holding this "powder keg" in its arms, and deploying it on Luzon Island in northern the Philippines, with a range of 1,700 km, covering the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and China's southeastern coast all within range.
Third, the three-week-long military exercise of the United States and the Philippines has already begun, and during the missile test, a Chinese-aided oil tanker was specially selected as a "target," and the signal is simply not too clear; fourth, the Philippine defense secretary has made it clear that starting this year, the scope of responsibility of the Philippine armed forces will be expanded to the exclusive economic zone beyond the territorial waters, so as to ensure the security of the Philippine side in exploring and developing resources.
Second, the Philippines has not done such a thing before. When the Philippine Coast Guard provoked China's Ren'ai Jiao, it brought Western media reporters to the scene to shoot and deliberately rammed the Chinese law enforcement vessel. After that, the filmed video was maliciously edited to create propaganda materials that smear China. With such a "criminal record," who can guarantee that the Philippine side will not repeat its old tricks and first fabricate information and then "refute rumors" in order to achieve the purpose of sending a signal? Marcos has never given such an order, and if it wants to engage in "wanting to catch and indulge," China is the ancestor of the 36 schemes.
Second, if the Philippine side sincerely "refutes the rumors", it shows that the Philippine side's current attitude is that it does not want to make a big fuss.
After entering 2024, the Philippines has clearly increased its provocations in the South China Sea. First of all, the Chinese side confirmed that the "gentlemen's agreement" reached with China during the Duterte era, and the understanding and agreement reached between the current Philippine government and military and China on the Ren'ai Jiao issue have all been torn up by Marcos, and the Philippines has completely lost its credibility in the exchanges between the two countries.
Second, the Philippines' move to win over external forces has reached a climax. It has held joint patrols with the United States, held joint military exercises with the United States and Japan, and for the first time chose the location in "disputed waters".
Finally, in the "shoulder-to-shoulder" exercise being held with the United States, France, and Australia, "landing" and "retaking occupied islands and reefs" are also put on the bright side.
However, the Philippines also knows that in terms of military strength, there is a huge gap between it and China, and to put it mildly, it is "ants" versus "elephants". "Pulling the tiger's skin as a banner" may be able to achieve temporary prestige, but in the event of a real military confrontation with China, will the external forces really be reliable? The Philippines does not know the bottom of its mind.
In fact, Marcos himself knows that the Philippines is nothing more than a "pawn" of the United States to contain China, and what will happen to the "chess piece" in the end, just look at what the United States has done in recent decades. The Philippines does not dare to make a big deal in the South China Sea, at least for now.
In the end, no matter how much the Philippines makes a move, the Chinese side will not back down, and the ants threaten to trample the elephant to death?
For example, Marcos threatened to hold a second "South China Sea arbitration" and declared that if the Philippine military was attacked in the South China Sea and there were casualties, the US military would be invited to intervene; the Philippine ambassador to the United States clamored that the United States, Japan, and Australia would be invited to jointly develop oil and gas in the South China Sea; and the Philippine defense secretary threatened to expand the scope of responsibility of the Philippine armed forces beyond the Philippine territorial waters, which may involve "disputed sea areas."
However, China will not back down on territorial and sovereignty issues. In response to external forces, China has directly named the United States and advised the United States not to stir up trouble in the South China Sea, as creating a "small circle" in the South China Sea will not only fail to solve the problem, but will also lead to the destruction of its own security.
In the case of the Philippines, China warned it to "take China's concerns seriously and pull back from the precipice", which is also the second highest warning level after "tolerable or intolerable" and "do not say anything unpredictable". If Marcos does not stop, the Chinese side will not be polite. There is a good saying, when the enemies of the United States are dangerous, and when the allies of the United States are more deadly, the Philippines wants to rely on external forces to provoke China and achieve the goal of "taking chestnuts from the fire", and even "ants trampling on elephants", which is completely a dream.