<h1 toutiao-origin="h1" > Keith Haring, Untitled, Acrylic on Canvas, 80×80cm, 1983</h1>
For a long time, "artist death = price increase" seems to have become a law of the art market, many people call it the "death effect" and are convinced of it. But in fact, not all artists will rise in price after their deaths, and the peak of the artist's market does not appear after their deaths. When will the "death effect" fail? What factors determine the rise and fall of the price of a work after the artist's death?
"More valuable after death?"
Jean François Miller, The Shearer, Pencil, Ink, Watercolor, 34.9×26.6cm
"Artists are worth nothing until they die" seems to have become a curse in the art circle, and the artists known to the public seem to be mostly poor when they are alive, and only after death are they put on the altar by the world, modigliani, Van Gogh, Chang Yu and so on. American humor guru Mark Twain must have discovered this before he wrote his short story "Is He Still On Earth?" " joked about this "law". The "he" in this novel is none other than the famous French realist painter François Miller.
Jean François Miller, Walking the Geese, Pastel on Paper, Black Crayon, 37.5×29.8cm, 1862-1863
In this story, Miller was a young man with a skill, but he was poor: his famous oil painting "Evening Vespers" sold for only eight francs, scaring away buyers who were only willing to pay five francs. Miller regretted it. At this time, his painter friends discovered the law of the "death effect" and intended to decide by drawing lots to decide a person to pretend to be dead, and the winner was Miller.
Jean-François Miller, The Woman Who Dried Clothes, Watercolor on Paper, Pen Ink and Black Chalk, 27.3×33.3cm
Before his death, Miller painted at a rate of more than 50 shots a day, while his friends did everything in their power to promote his talents and hype up his impending death. A few months later, Miller's friends announced his death and held a grand funeral for him.
Sure enough, the trick worked, and the price of Miller's works rose to the top, becoming a household name in the art market, making his friends a big profit, and everyone got out of poverty. However, poor Miller was forced to spend the second half of his lonely life in anonymity...
Vincent van Gogh, The Blooming Apricot Blossom, oil on canvas, 73.3 × 92.4 cm, 1890
Vincent van Gogh, Rose, oil on canvas, 71×90cm, 1890
This seemingly absurd farce nakedly reveals the tragic reality that "deceased artists are more valuable", and although this story is quite extreme, the impact of death on the performance of the artist market cannot be ignored today, and Zao Wou-Ki is a typical case. He was already a market darling during his lifetime, and after his death in 2013, the price of his art has skyrocketed. In 2018, the volume of artists' works reached 89%, of which more than 50% of the works exceeded the original transaction price; since 2013, the average auction price of artists has increased by more than 50%.
Zao Wou-Ki' Emerald Forest, oil on canvas, 127× 127.5cm, circa 1950, sold in Christie's Hong Kong in May 2016 for $9.12 million
Zao Wou-Ki, Untitled, Watercolor on Paper, 31×41cm, 2005
This is not difficult to understand. If the artist is still alive, then they may create at any time, and the supply of works is increasing; but the death of the artist has made the total number of non-renewable works of art frozen, collectors will be reluctant to sell, and the works that can circulate in the market may be even rarer, so appreciation is an inevitable result.
"The Death Effect of Failure"
Carmen Herrera, Blanco y Verde, Acrylic on Canvas, 101.6×177 .8cm, sold for $2.9 million in Sotheby's New York in March 2019
But the "death effect" also has times when it fails. In 2017, American economists such as Robert Ekelund and Robert Tollison published the book Economics of American Art: Problems, Artists, and Market Systems, arguing that there is no absolute causal relationship between death and artist market performance.
Carmen Herrera, Blanco y Verde, Acrylic on Canvas, 173×153.7cm, 1959
They combed through 6,118 auction records of 17 artists who died between 1987 and 2013 and found that the prices of their works rose by 6% in the five years before their deaths, and in the year of their deaths, their prices fell by 26% before gradually recovering.
Carmen Herrera, Green and White, 1956
Carmen Herrera, Untitled from Verde y Amarillo, Lithograph, 38×30.5cm, 2017
This is because, instigated by the "death effect", some collectors have brought their collections to the market after the artist's death in order to seek huge profits. Therefore, although artists can no longer continue to create, the supply of works has increased unabated, and the market law of "scarce things are precious" cannot play a role. On the contrary, many artists will have a series of problems such as physical aging and decreased creativity a few years after their death, and they have to choose to stop, and their "output" will slow down and the price will rise.
Carmen Herrera, Green and Orange, Acrylic on Canvas, 152.4×182.9cm, 1958
The 106-year-old Cuban artist Carmen Herrera is enjoying the dividends of the "impending death effect." All 48 of his works with market transaction data have been sold in the past decade, and the artist's personal record has been broken many times in the past five years.
In 2019, a hard-edged abstract painting called Blanco y Verde sold for $2.9 million at Sotheby's New York, breaking the 2018 auction record of $2.65 million set by the same series.
Keith Haring, Tree of Life, Acrylic on Canvas, 294×362 cm, 1985
As a result, many artists also have periods before their deaths when their market performance is improving by leaps and bounds, and Kath Haring is like this. In 1988, at the age of 30, he discovered that he was suffering from AIDS and would soon die. Instead of hiding it, he made it public and founded the Kath Harlem Foundation to contribute to AIDS research and treatment and child welfare, while continuing to create art until the end of his life.
Keith Haring, Andy Mouse, Color Screen Printing, 96.5×96.5 cm, 1986
Keith Haring, Andy Mouse, color screen printing, 91.1×91.1 cm, 1986
Aids did not hit Kath Haring's market hard, but instead caused his work to rise in price by about 75%, but his death two years later had little impact on market prices. This is because the price of a work depends on the expected total supply, which in turn depends on the artist's life expectancy.
But collectors learned of his death in advance, and anticipated the scarcity of the artist's work in the future, so they chose to collect a large number of collections, and the sudden increase in market demand led to a brief increase in the price of the work, so the "death effect" took effect two years in advance.
Keith Haring, Statue of Liberty, color screen printing, 91×65cm, 1986
But not all artists who die young can enjoy the benefits of the "death effect" in advance like Keith Harlem. Generally speaking, collectors will collect the works of artists with excellent market potential early, get these masterpieces of future market darlings at a very low price, and then change hands at a high price many years later, just like the Ullens investment in many Chinese contemporary artists in the past.
Joan Mitchell, Between, oil on canvas, 128.9×122.5cm, 1985
But if artists die prematurely before they mature and are unable to create more representative works, it is difficult for collectors to anticipate their future career development, so they may sell their collections in order to stop losses in time, causing the price of works to fall.
Alma Thomas, Grass Melody, Acrylic on Canvas, 116.8 × 91.5 cm, 1976
This phenomenon may be a subtle echo of a study. In 2011, professors Heinrich Usplon and Christian Wiemann, professors at the School of Economics at the University of Konstanz in Germany, described in detail the impact of the age of death on their market performance in their paper "Reputation, Price and Death: An Empirical Analysis of the Formation of Art Prices."
Louise Bourgeois, Spider (Cell), Steel Frames, Tapestries, and Bones, 1997
In their study, the "death effect" had a negative impact on artists who died before the age of 60. This is because the price of the work is closely related to the artist's popularity. In general, the more novel and creative a work is, the greater the chance of being collected and appreciated, and the major players and institutions in the global art market can disseminate more information about the artist. It is clear that such a credibility-building mechanism can work only on the basis of a sufficient number of masterpieces. Artists who died prematurely did not meet this condition and were therefore depressed after their deaths.
"Discovering the Late Artist"
Louise Bourgeois, Spider III, Steel, 48.3×88.9×95.3cm, 1995
This is the main reason why the art world today is committed to promoting the work of deceased artists. Masters such as Louise Bourgeois have basically formed a mature creative language before their deaths, and have a considerable number of masterpieces, with great potential for exploration. On this basis, as long as the gallery or museum can maintain a certain degree of market freshness and exposure, the work can be quickly hyped, thus promoting the occurrence of the "death effect" and bringing rich returns.
Louise Bourgeois, Echo I, Bronze, Pigments and Steel, 189.2×43.2×35.6cm, 2008
Whether these artists were rich or unknown during their lifetime, galleries and museums can play an important role in reshaping the artist market with their powerful manipulative power. After receiving the artist's legacy, they will provide new academic research perspectives by holding retrospective exhibitions and publishing monographs, and re-give them context in a contemporary context.
Joan Mitchell, Garden Party, oil on canvas, 164.5×130.2cm, 1961-1962
For years, the American abstract expressionist artist Joan Mitchell was completely overshadowed by Rothko, Pollock, de Kooning and others: in the 1970s, de Kunin's works were priced at $300,000, while Mitchell's works sold for only $35,000. In 2007, Cheim & Read Gallery in New York curated a retrospective of her work on paper and published a catalogue written by professional researchers, which fueled the explosion of the artist market.
At Art Basel in Switzerland that year, Cheim & Read sold three Mitchell pastels on paper for $200,000, and an American museum coveted a $5.5 million work from the artist.
Joan Mitchell, Straw, oil on canvas, 280×200cm, 1976
There are many more pearls like Mitchell, and only a few artists have been mentioned in art history or become regulars at auction. The art market is always saturated with oversupply, collectors' eyes are always drawn to the freshest and hottest young artists, and many talented and outstanding artists may be ruthlessly forced to make way for new artists, and they will not see the dawn of success until their deaths.
Jean Michel Basquiat, Untitled, Ink on Paper and Oil Sticks, 75.5×56 cm, 1983
This is clearly unfair compared to their painstaking creations; it is also a pity for the general public not to be able to appreciate those stunning works. Therefore, rediscovering the market value of deceased artists and establishing their personal prestige is not only to give artists fair treatment, but also to help people correct the shortcomings in history and build a more complete art world.
Editor, Wen Ma Yukun
This article is original by Harper's Bazaar Art Department and may not be reproduced without permission